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New York Red Bulls v San Diego

New York Red Bulls

4–1Full time

San Diego

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Sports Illustrated Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego NEW YORK RED BULLS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said New York Red Bulls win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.552

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.604

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said New York Red Bulls win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: New York Red Bulls was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
1′KICK-OFF New York Red Bulls v San Diego
2′Much as we predicted: New York Red Bulls was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–24–36
3′Much as we predicted: New York Red Bulls was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–36
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' New York Red Bulls 1–0 San Diego
14′⚽ GOAL · 15' New York Red Bulls 1–0 San Diego
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' New York Red Bulls 2–0 San Diego · Julian Hall
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' New York Red Bulls 2–0 San Diego · Devin Padelford
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' New York Red Bulls 3–0 San Diego · Devin Padelford
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' New York Red Bulls 3–0 San Diego · Jorge Ruvalcaba
31′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Jeppe Tverskov · San Diego
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Julian Bazan · New York Red Bulls
44′PENALTY MISSED · 44' Anders Dreyer · San Diego
45′SECOND HALF New York Red Bulls 3–0 San Diego
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' San Diego · On: Alejandro Alvarado Jr · Off: Jeppe Tverskov Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' San Diego · On: Cédric Bakambu · Off: Marcus Ingvartsen Corrected
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Manu Duah · San Diego
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' New York Red Bulls 3–1 San Diego · Jorge Ruvalcaba
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' New York Red Bulls 3–1 San Diego · Cédric Bakambu
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' San Diego · On: David Evra Mimbang Nyangono · Off: Gabriel Pirani Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' San Diego · On: Christopher McVey · Off: Ian Murphy Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' New York Red Bulls · On: Tim Parker · Off: Justin Che Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' New York Red Bulls · On: Sekou Kone · Off: Ronald Donkor Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' New York Red Bulls · On: Emil Forsberg · Off: Mohammed Sofo Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' New York Red Bulls · On: Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting · Off: Cade Cowell Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' San Diego · On: Amahl Pellegrino · Off: Elias Achouri Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' New York Red Bulls · On: Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty · Off: Jorge Ruvalcaba Corrected
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Devin Padelford · New York Red Bulls
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' kieran sargeant · San Diego
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' New York Red Bulls · On: Matthew Dos Santos · Off: Devin Padelford Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 91' San Diego · On: Onni Valakari · Off: Aníbal Godoy Corrected
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego · Cédric Bakambu
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego · Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting
FTFULL TIME New York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego
FTNew York Red Bulls 4–1 San Diego · New York Red Bulls win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

New York Red Bulls win40%

Draw25%

San Diego win35%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Sports Illustrated Stadium

Referee · Malik Badawi

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

New York Red Bulls

Formation not confirmed

34 E. Horvath

12 D. Nealis

2 J. Che

14 J. Bazan

59 D. Padelford

48 R. Donkor

15 A. Mehmeti

37 M. Sofo

11 J. Ruvalcaba

16 J. Hall

7 C. Cowell

Coach · –

Substitutes

77 · J. McCarthy

56 · M. Dos Santos

26 · T. Parker

3 · J. Marshall-Rutty

8 · D. Ruiz

88 · Pedro Castro

60 · S. Kone

13 · E. M. Choupo-Moting

10 · E. Forsberg

San Diego

4-3-3

1 dos Santos CJ

33 O. Verhoeven

26 M. Duah

32 I. Murphy

5 K. Sargeant

20 A. Godoy

6 J. Tverskov

12 Gabriel Pirani

10 A. Dreyer

7 M. Ingvartsen

99 E. Achouri

Coach · Mikey Varas

Substitutes

13 · P. Sisniega

3 · D. Thorhallsson

97 · C. McVey

8 · O. Valakari

70 · A. Alvarado Jr

36 · D. Nyangono

94 · C. Bakambu

90 · A. Pellegrino

14 · B. B. Zamble

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

New York Red Bulls

Formation not confirmed

34 E. Horvath

12 D. Nealis

2 J. Che

14 J. Bazan

59 D. Padelford

48 R. Donkor

15 A. Mehmeti

37 M. Sofo

11 J. Ruvalcaba

16 J. Hall

7 C. Cowell

Coach · –

Substitutes

77 · J. McCarthy

56 · M. Dos Santos

26 · T. Parker

3 · J. Marshall-Rutty

8 · D. Ruiz

88 · Pedro Castro

60 · S. Kone

13 · E. M. Choupo-Moting

10 · E. Forsberg

San Diego

4-3-3

1 dos Santos CJ

33 O. Verhoeven

26 M. Duah

32 I. Murphy

5 K. Sargeant

20 A. Godoy

6 J. Tverskov

12 Gabriel Pirani

10 A. Dreyer

7 M. Ingvartsen

99 E. Achouri

Coach · Mikey Varas

Substitutes

13 · P. Sisniega

3 · D. Thorhallsson

97 · C. McVey

8 · O. Valakari

70 · A. Alvarado Jr

36 · D. Nyangono

94 · C. Bakambu

90 · A. Pellegrino

14 · B. B. Zamble

Our number · new york red bulls winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make New York Red Bulls a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · new york red bulls win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
New York Red Bulls win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	25%	24%	+1
San Diego win	35%	39%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	58%	71%	−12
Both teams to score	61%	71%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	81%	87%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	36%	51%	−15
New York Red Bulls or draw	65%	61%	+3
New York Red Bulls clean sheet	23%	–	–
San Diego clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 5.5 6.6 5.2 2.5 1 7.1 11.6 8.0 3.9 2 5.9 8.6 6.2 3.1 3 3.1 4.5 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+New York Red Bulls down, San Diego across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

New York Red Bulls at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). San Diego away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for New York Red Bulls, 1.46 for San Diego. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

NEW YORK RED BULLS

LDLWWL1–3 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3

SAN DIEGO

WLLLDD3–1 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21