New York Red Bulls v Inter Miami prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

New York Red BullsDrawInter Miami

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 22:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Inter Miami 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Miami are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: New York Red Bulls 33%, draw 23%, Inter Miami 44%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on New York Red Bulls v Inter MiamiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

New York Red Bulls win33%

Draw23%

Inter Miami win44%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 22:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueSports Illustrated Stadium

RefereeFilip Dujic

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

New York Red Bulls

Inter Miami

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter miami winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off

44% The market49%

Us44%

~~Market~~49%

We make Inter Miami a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · New York Red Bulls v Inter Miami~~1.67 – 1.95

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 36 v 55~~9 v 2

~~The market · Inter Miami win~~49% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Miami win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
New York Red Bulls win	33%	28%	+5
Draw	23%	22%	+1
Inter Miami win	44%	49%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	70%	74%	−4
Both teams to score	70%	72%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	89%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	49%	55%	−6
New York Red Bulls or draw	56%	51%	+5
New York Red Bulls clean sheet	14%	–	–
Inter Miami clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.3 4.8 5.1 3.3 1 4.0 9.2 8.4 5.4 2.7 2 3.8 7.2 7.0 4.5 2.2 3 2.1 4.0 3.9 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+New York Red Bulls down, Inter Miami across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.70 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

New York Red Bulls at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Miami away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for New York Red Bulls, 1.95 for Inter Miami. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.70

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~INT 2–2 NEW · NEW 1–5 INT · INT 4–1 NEW · INT 6–2 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

NEW YORK RED BULLS

WWLWLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

INTER MIAMI

DDLWWW2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25