New York City FC v Atlanta United FC prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

New York City FCDrawAtlanta United FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · New York City FC 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

New York City FC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: New York City FC 54%, draw 24%, Atlanta United FC 21%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on New York City FC v Atlanta United FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

New York City FC win54%

Draw24%

Atlanta United FC win21%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueYankee Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

New York City FC

Atlanta United FC

4Days since last match4

Last match: 25 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · new york city fc winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make New York City FC a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · New York City FC v Atlanta United FC~~1.79 – 1.03

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 18 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 34 v 30~~12 v 14

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · New York City FC win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
New York City FC win	54%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Atlanta United FC win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
New York City FC or draw	79%	–	–
New York City FC clean sheet	36%	–	–
Atlanta United FC clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.8 5.6 3.2 1 10.1 11.6 5.6 2 9.5 9.7 5.0 3 5.7 5.8 3.0 4 2.6 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+New York City FC down, Atlanta United FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

New York City FC at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Atlanta United FC away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.79 goals for New York City FC, 1.03 for Atlanta United FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ATL 2–2 NEW · NEW 4–0 ATL · ATL 4–3 NEW · ATL 2–2 NEW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 18 Sept

NEW YORK CITY FC

LDLLDD0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

ATLANTA UNITED FC

WDLWLL1–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–3 · 2–3

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	31	+43	70
2	Inter Miami	31	+20	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	New York Red Bulls	31	−15	39
9	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	+1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	−11	36
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	31	−26	25