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New England Revolution v Seattle Sounders

New England Revolution

0–3Full time

Seattle Sounders

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Boston Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

New England Revolution 0–3 Seattle Sounders NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said New England Revolution win~~40%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.688

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.828

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said New England Revolution win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: New England Revolution was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
1′KICK-OFF New England Revolution v Seattle Sounders
2′Much as we predicted: New England Revolution was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' New England Revolution 0–1 Seattle Sounders
14′⚽ GOAL · 15' New England Revolution 0–1 Seattle Sounders
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Cristian Roldán · Seattle Sounders
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Luca Daniel·Langoni · New England Revolution
25′🟨 YELLOW · 24' William Sands · New England Revolution
45′SECOND HALF New England Revolution 0–1 Seattle Sounders
56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Hassani Dotson · Seattle Sounders
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Seattle Sounders · On: Snyder Brunell · Off: Sebastian Gomez Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' New England Revolution · On: Ilay Feingold · Off: Matt Polster Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Seattle Sounders · On: Paul Arriola · Off: Jordan Morris Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Seattle Sounders · On: stuar hawkins · Off: Yeimar Gomez Corrected
73′⚽ GOAL · 73' New England Revolution 0–2 Seattle Sounders · Hassani Dotson
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' New England Revolution · On: Judah Siqueira · Off: Jackson Yueill Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' New England Revolution · On: Dániel Gazdag · Off: Luca Daniel·Langoni Corrected
75′⚽ GOAL · 74' New England Revolution 0–2 Seattle Sounders · Dejan Joveljić
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' New England Revolution 0–3 Seattle Sounders · Dejan Joveljić
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Seattle Sounders · On: Jesús Ferreira · Off: Dejan Joveljić Corrected
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' New England Revolution 0–3 Seattle Sounders · Paul Arriola
83′⚽ GOAL · 81' New England Revolution 0–3 Seattle Sounders · Paul Arriola (assist Jesús Ferreira)
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' New England Revolution · On: Diego Fagúndez · Off: Carles Gil Corrected
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' New England Revolution · On: Griffin Yow · Off: Peyton Miller Corrected
FTFULL TIME New England Revolution 0–3 Seattle Sounders
FTNew England Revolution 0–3 Seattle Sounders · New England Revolution win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

New England Revolution win40%

Draw27%

Seattle Sounders win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Boston Stadium

Referee · Tori Penso

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

New England Revolution

4-3-3

30 M. Turner

8 M. Polster

22 E. Kohler

66 J. Wynder

23 W. Sands

10 C. Gil

21 B. Raines

14 J. Yueill

41 L. Langoni

99 D. Turgeman

25 P. Miller

Coach · Marko Mitrovic

Substitutes

33 · D. Parisian

4 · T. Beason

15 · C. Baker

12 · I. Feingold

16 · D. Gazdag

65 · J. Siqueira

77 · D. Fagundez

7 · G. Yow

27 · W. Harris

Seattle Sounders

4-2-3-1

26 A. Thomas

16 A. Roldan

28 Y. Gomez Andrade

25 J. Ragen

5 Nouhou

31 H. Dotson

7 C. Roldan

13 J. Morris

11 A. Rusnak

90 S. Gomez

9 D. Joveljic

Coach · Brian Schmetzer

Substitutes

24 · S. Frei

39 · S. Hawkins

85 · K. Kossa-Rienzi

45 · P. Kingston

8 · C. Clark

37 · S. Brunell

27 · J. Ferreira

17 · P. Arriola

19 · D. Musovski

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

New England Revolution

4-3-3

30 M. Turner

8 M. Polster

22 E. Kohler

66 J. Wynder

23 W. Sands

10 C. Gil

21 B. Raines

14 J. Yueill

41 L. Langoni

99 D. Turgeman

25 P. Miller

Coach · Marko Mitrovic

Substitutes

33 · D. Parisian

4 · T. Beason

15 · C. Baker

12 · I. Feingold

16 · D. Gazdag

65 · J. Siqueira

77 · D. Fagundez

7 · G. Yow

27 · W. Harris

Seattle Sounders

4-2-3-1

26 A. Thomas

16 A. Roldan

28 Y. Gomez Andrade

25 J. Ragen

5 Nouhou

31 H. Dotson

7 C. Roldan

13 J. Morris

11 A. Rusnak

90 S. Gomez

9 D. Joveljic

Coach · Brian Schmetzer

Substitutes

24 · S. Frei

39 · S. Hawkins

85 · K. Kossa-Rienzi

45 · P. Kingston

8 · C. Clark

37 · S. Brunell

27 · J. Ferreira

17 · P. Arriola

19 · D. Musovski

Our number · new england revolution winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

40% The market49%

Us40%

~~Market~~49%

We make New England Revolution a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · new england revolution win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
New England Revolution win	40%	49%	−8
Draw	27%	24%	+2
Seattle Sounders win	33%	27%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	51%	62%	−11
Both teams to score	55%	63%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	76%	83%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	29%	42%	−13
New England Revolution or draw	67%	73%	−6
New England Revolution clean sheet	28%	–	–
Seattle Sounders clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 7.3 7.8 5.4 2.3 1 8.9 12.6 7.6 3.3 2 6.9 8.6 5.5 2.4 3 3.3 4.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+New England Revolution down, Seattle Sounders across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

New England Revolution at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Seattle Sounders away: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.45 goals for New England Revolution, 1.28 for Seattle Sounders. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SEA 2–0 NEW

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

WLWWWL3–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 0–3

SEATTLE SOUNDERS

DDDWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21