New England Revolution v New York Red Bulls prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

New England RevolutionDrawNew York Red Bulls

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · New England Revolution 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

New England Revolution are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: New England Revolution 48%, draw 25%, New York Red Bulls 27%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on New England Revolution v New York Red BullsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

New England Revolution win48%

Draw25%

New York Red Bulls win27%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueGillette Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

New England Revolution

New York Red Bulls

11Days since last match11

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · new england revolution winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make New England Revolution a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · New England Revolution v New York Red Bulls~~1.72 – 1.22

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 52 v 36~~3 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
New England Revolution win	48%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
New York Red Bulls win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
New England Revolution or draw	73%	–	–
New England Revolution clean sheet	30%	–	–
New York Red Bulls clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.1 5.9 4.0 1 8.5 11.7 6.7 2.7 2 7.8 9.4 5.7 2.3 3 4.5 5.4 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+New England Revolution down, New York Red Bulls across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.70 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

New England Revolution at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). New York Red Bulls away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for New England Revolution, 1.22 for New York Red Bulls. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.70

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~YOR 1–0 ENG · YOR 5–3 ENG · ENG 2–1 YOR · ENG 1–0 YOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

WWLLWW2–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–0

NEW YORK RED BULLS

WWLWLL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–3 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25