New England Revolution v Chicago Fire prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:01

New England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said New England Revolution win~~44%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.468

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.549

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said New England Revolution win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: New England Revolution 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
1′KICK-OFF New England Revolution v Chicago Fire
25′We said New England Revolution at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–12
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' New England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' New England Revolution win: 44% at kick-off, 70% now
27′26′: Matt Polster on the scoresheet for New England Revolution, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 70–19–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 70–19–11
45′HALF-TIME New England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire
45′SECOND HALF New England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' New England Revolution win: 44% at kick-off, 74% now
56′Chicago Fire have had 11 attempts to 4 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–6
57′We said New England Revolution at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Andrew Gutman · Chicago Fire
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' New England Revolution · On: Dániel Gazdag · Off: Luca Daniel·Langoni
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Chicago Fire · On: Puso Dithejane · Off: Jonathan Bamba
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chicago Fire · On: Anzor Mekvabishvili · Off: Djé D'Avilla
69′We said New England Revolution at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chicago Fire · On: Noah Allen · Off: Andrew Gutman
73′12 shots for Chicago Fire, 5 the other way, and they still trail 1–0. 1–0 · 82–16–2
77′We said New England Revolution at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' New England Revolution win: 44% at kick-off, 85% now
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' New England Revolution · On: Jackson Yueill · Off: William Sands
80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Ethan Kohler · New England Revolution
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Chicago Fire · On: Johan Arath Gomez · Off: Leonardo Barroso
82′We said New England Revolution at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' New England Revolution win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' New England Revolution · On: Tanner·Beason · Off: Dor Turgeman
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' New England Revolution · On: Cody Baker · Off: Ilay Feingold
89′We said New England Revolution at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′1–0 at the end. Our 44% on New England Revolution comes in. 1–0 · 100–0–0
92′Chicago Fire have had 17 attempts to 5 and it is still 1–0. 1–0 · 97–3–0
FTFULL TIME New England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire
FTNew England Revolution 1–0 Chicago Fire · New England Revolution win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

New England Revolution are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: New England Revolution 44%, draw 24%, Chicago Fire 32%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on New England Revolution v Chicago FireBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

New England Revolution win44%

Draw24%

Chicago Fire win32%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueBoston Stadium

RefereeBensalah, Nabil

Line-ups

New England Revolution

4-3-3

Chicago Fire

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

New England Revolution

Chicago Fire

3Days since last match2

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	New England Revolution	29	+7	49
4	Chicago Fire	29	+9	48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

New England Revolution

4-3-3

30 M. Turner

12 I. Feingold

22 E. Kohler

66 J. Wynder

23 W. Sands

10 Carles Gil

21 B. Raines

8 M. Polster

25 P. Miller

99 D. Turgeman

41 L. Langoni

Coach · M. Mićović

Substitutes

15 · C. Baker

4 · T. Beason

77 · D. Fagundez

16 · D. Gazdag

73 · JD Gunn

27 · W. Harris

65 · J. Siqueira

7 · G. Yow

14 · J. Yueill

Chicago Fire

4-3-3

1 C. Brady

2 Leonardo Barroso

21 A. Hanche-Olsen

4 M. Mbokazi

15 A. Gutman

6 A. Salétros

42 T. D'Avilla

7 M. Haile-Selassie

11 P. Zinckernagel

9 R. Lewandowski

19 J. Bamba

Coach · G. Berhalter

Substitutes

35 · S. Oregel

22 · M. Pineda

29 · D. Poręba

23 · A. Mekvabishvili

18 · J. Gómez

12 · P. Dithejane

24 · J. Dean

44 · J. Cohen

32 · N. Allen

Our number · new england revolution winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market40%

Us44%

~~Market~~40%

We make New England Revolution a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · New England Revolution v Chicago Fire~~1.76 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 49 v 48~~3 v 4

~~The market · New England Revolution win~~40% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · New England Revolution win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 44% now. The market has gone from 39% to 40% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
New England Revolution win	44%	40%	+4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
Chicago Fire win	32%	35%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	62%	64%	−2
Both teams to score	64%	66%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	83%	0
Over 3.5 goals	40%	44%	−4
New England Revolution or draw	68%	65%	+3
New England Revolution clean sheet	24%	–	–
Chicago Fire clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.7 5.3 4.3 2.1 1 6.5 10.8 7.4 3.6 2 6.2 8.9 6.5 3.2 3 3.6 5.2 3.8 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+New England Revolution down, Chicago Fire across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,981 Major League Soccer matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 437 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

New England Revolution at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Chicago Fire away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for New England Revolution, 1.46 for Chicago Fire. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHI 1–2 NEW · NEW 2–2 CHI · CHI 3–2 NEW · NEW 1–3 CHI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

WWWLLW2–1 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 0–3 · 3–2

CHICAGO FIRE

LLWWWL1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	29	+41	66
2	Inter Miami	29	+20	52
3	New England Revolution	29	+7	49
4	Chicago Fire	29	+9	48
5	Charlotte	29	+8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	+13	45
7	Orlando City SC	29	−15	38
8	New York Red Bulls	29	−15	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	−8	36
10	New York City FC	29	+2	33
11	Toronto FC	29	−11	33
12	DC United	28	−11	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	−3	32
14	Atlanta United FC	29	−12	30
15	CF Montreal	29	−24	24