Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30

Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City NASHVILLE SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nashville SC win~~70%

~~The market said~~78%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.135

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.076

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nashville SC win at 70%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nashville SC 70% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–17–12
1′KICK-OFF Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City
9′We said Nashville SC at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Nashville SC 1–0 Sporting Kansas City
9′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 9' Nashville SC win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
10′10′ and it is 1–0: Hany Mukhtar on the scoresheet for Nashville SC. 1–0 · 87–9–4
16′We said Nashville SC at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 2–0 · 96–3–1
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Nashville SC 2–0 Sporting Kansas City · Hany Mukhtar
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Nashville SC win: 70% at kick-off, 96% now
17′Nashville SC ahead on 17′ through Sam Surridge. 2–0. 2–0 · 96–3–1
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Nashville SC 3–0 Sporting Kansas City · Sam Surridge
30′Andy Najar scores for Nashville SC on 29′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
40′We said Nashville SC at 70% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Nashville SC win: 70% at kick-off, 100% now
45′SECOND HALF Nashville SC 3–0 Sporting Kansas City
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sporting Kansas City · On: Jacob Bartlett · Off: Zorhan Bassong
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Sporting Kansas City · On: Calvin Harris · Off: André Luiz
53′SUBSTITUTION · 53' Sporting Kansas City · On: Taylor Calheira · Off: Seymour Garfield-Reid
63′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.4 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City · Andy Najar
64′63′ and it is 3–0: Sam Surridge on the scoresheet for Nashville SC. 3–0 · 100–0–0
64′GOAL DISALLOWED · 64' Nashville SC
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nashville SC · On: Daniel Lovitz · Off: Andy Najar
69′The goal count is tracking the 3.4 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Nashville SC · On: Shakur Mohammed · Off: Cristian Espinoza
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sporting Kansas City · On: Jacob Davis · Off: Ian James
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nashville SC · On: Bryan Acosta · Off: matthew corcoran
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nashville SC · On: Warren Madrigal · Off: Hany Mukhtar
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Sporting Kansas City · On: Emir Karic · Off: Jayden Reid
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Nashville SC · On: Alex Muyl · Off: Sam Surridge
90′4–0 at the end. Our 70% on Nashville SC comes in. 4–0 · 100–0–0
94′⚽ GOAL · 94' Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City · Andy Najar
95′90′ and it is 4–0: Warren Madrigal on the scoresheet for Nashville SC. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Nashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City
FTNashville SC 4–0 Sporting Kansas City · Nashville SC win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nashville SC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nashville SC 70%, draw 18%, Sporting Kansas City 12%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off

Nashville SC win70%

Draw18%

Sporting Kansas City win12%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 01:30

VenueGeodis Park

RefereeJoshua Encarnacion

Line-ups

Nashville SC

4-2-3-1

Sporting Kansas City

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nashville SC

Sporting Kansas City

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	-33	22

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Nashville SC

4-2-3-1

99 B. Schwake

31 A. Najar

4 J. Palacios

3 M. Woledzi

27 R. Baker-Whiting

20 E. Tagseth

16 M. Corcoran

7 C. Espinoza

10 H. Mukhtar

11 E. Saad

9 S. Surridge

Coach · B. Callaghan

Substitutes

8 · P. Yazbek

6 · B. Acosta

22 · J. Bauer

2 · D. Lovitz

41 · W. Madrigal

5 · J. Maher

14 · S. Mohammed

19 · A. Muyl

1 · J. Willis

Sporting Kansas City

4-4-2

30 S. Cleveland

2 I. James

15 Jansen Miller

28 Wyatt Meyer

99 J. Reid

11 André Luiz

22 Z. Bassong

20 K. Agyabeng

93 M. Suleymanov

24 R. Ramos

29 S. Reid

Coach · R. Wicky

Substitutes

23 · E. Bartlow

16 · J. Bartlett

17 · S. Afrifa

1 · J. Pulskamp

7 · Capita

8 · J. Davis

14 · C. Harris

18 · E. Karić

19 · T. Calheira

Our number · nashville sc winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off

70% The market78%

Us70%

~~Market~~78%

We make Nashville SC a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.5–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nashville SC v Sporting Kansas City~~2.49 – 0.95

~~Last six in Major League Soccer~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~The market · Nashville SC win~~78% · ours 70%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nashville sc win The market, margin stripped

Published at 69%, 70% now. The market has gone from 74% to 78% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nashville SC win	70%	78%	−8
Draw	18%	14%	+4
Sporting Kansas City win	12%	9%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	67%	73%	−7
Both teams to score	56%	56%	0
Over 1.5 goals	86%	88%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	45%	54%	−9
Nashville SC or draw	88%	91%	−4
Nashville SC clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.8%

0123450 3.7 2.7 1 7.6 8.0 3.6 2 9.8 9.3 4.4 3 8.1 7.6 3.6 4 5.1 4.8 2.3 5 2.6 2.4

under 2% 5% 12%+Nashville SC down, Sporting Kansas City across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,964 Major League Soccer matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nashville SC at home: 2.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Kansas City away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.49 goals for Nashville SC, 0.95 for Sporting Kansas City. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 01:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–3 NAS · NAS 1–2 SPO · SPO 1–2 NAS

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

NASHVILLE SC

DLDWWW0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1

SPORTING KANSAS CITY

LWLWLD3–4 · 3–1 · 3–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	10	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	2	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	13	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	3	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	0	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	-3	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	-5	32
12	San Diego	28	-3	32
13	Austin	28	-15	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	-9	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	-33	22