Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Nashville SCDrawPhiladelphia Union

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Nashville SC 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nashville SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Nashville SC 48%, draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 27%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Nashville SC v Philadelphia UnionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Nashville SC win48%

Draw25%

Philadelphia Union win27%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueGeodis Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Nashville SC

Philadelphia Union

5Days since last match12

Last match: 24 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 17 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Nashville SC seal first MLS Supporters’ Shield with 2-0 win over CF MontrealThe Guardian · 24 Oct 22:07 · Nashville SC, CF Montreal

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · nashville sc winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Nashville SC a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Nashville SC v Philadelphia Union~~1.71 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 14 Sept~~W5 D1 L0 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 67 v 46~~1 v 6

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Nashville SC win	48%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Philadelphia Union win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	56%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	80%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	34%	–	–
Nashville SC or draw	73%	–	–
Nashville SC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Philadelphia Union clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.0 5.9 4.1 1 8.4 11.7 6.8 2.8 2 7.6 9.3 5.8 2.4 3 4.4 5.3 3.3 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Nashville SC down, Philadelphia Union across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Nashville SC at home: 3.33 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Philadelphia Union away: 3.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Nashville SC, 1.24 for Philadelphia Union. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PHI 0–0 NAS · NAS 3–1 PHI · NAS 1–0 PHI · PHI 1–3 NAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 14 Sept

NASHVILLE SC

WWWWDW3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 1–1 · 2–0

PHILADELPHIA UNION

WWWWWD5–0 · 4–3 · 4–2 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25