Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Minnesota United FCDrawSporting Kansas City

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Minnesota United FC 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Minnesota United FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Minnesota United FC 63%, draw 19%, Sporting Kansas City 18%. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas CityBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Minnesota United FC win63%

Draw19%

Sporting Kansas City win18%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueAllianz Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Minnesota United FC

Sporting Kansas City

12Days since last match11

Last match: 17 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · minnesota united fc winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Minnesota United FC a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.2, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Minnesota United FC v Sporting Kansas City~~2.44 – 1.24

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 34 v 22~~13 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Minnesota United FC win	63%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Sporting Kansas City win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	71%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
Minnesota United FC or draw	82%	–	–
Minnesota United FC clean sheet	29%	–	–
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet	9%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.1 2.8 2.0 1 5.8 8.1 4.7 2 7.5 9.2 5.7 2.3 3 6.1 7.4 4.6 4 3.7 4.5 2.8 5 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Minnesota United FC down, Sporting Kansas City across0–5 goals a side shown (95.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,998 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.4% of games this season, across 454 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.40 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Minnesota United FC at home: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Kansas City away: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.44 goals for Minnesota United FC, 1.24 for Sporting Kansas City. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.40

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 2–1 MIN · MIN 3–0 SPO · SPO 3–3 MIN · SPO 0–2 MIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

MINNESOTA UNITED FC

LLLDDW2–4 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 3–2

SPORTING KANSAS CITY

LWLDLL3–4 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 1–3

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22