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Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo

Minnesota United FC

2–2Full time

Houston Dynamo

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Allianz Field

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo MINNESOTA UNITED FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Minnesota United FC win~~46%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.833

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.814

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Minnesota United FC win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Minnesota United FC 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
1′KICK-OFF Minnesota United FC v Houston Dynamo
2′Little has changed for our model: Minnesota United FC 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–25–28
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Minnesota United FC 0–1 Houston Dynamo
17′⚽ GOAL · 18' Minnesota United FC 0–1 Houston Dynamo
45′HALF-TIME Minnesota United FC 0–1 Houston Dynamo
45′SECOND HALF Minnesota United FC 0–1 Houston Dynamo
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Minnesota United FC 1–1 Houston Dynamo · Lyle Foster
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Minnesota United FC 1–1 Houston Dynamo · Kelvin Yeboah
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Houston Dynamo · On: Franco Negri · Off: Felipe·De Andrade Vieira Corrected
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Houston Dynamo · On: Nick Markanich · Off: Lyle Foster Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Minnesota United FC · On: Marcus Caldeira · Off: Bongokuhle Hlongwane Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Minnesota United FC · On: Nectarios Triantis · Off: Owen Gene Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Minnesota United FC · On: Mauricio González Carabalí · Off: Aziel Jackson Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Houston Dynamo · On: Blake Gillingham · Off: Jonathan Bond Corrected
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Minnesota United FC 2–1 Houston Dynamo · Kelvin Yeboah
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Minnesota United FC 2–1 Houston Dynamo · Marcus Caldeira
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Houston Dynamo · On: Duane Holmes · Off: Lawrence Ennali Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Houston Dynamo · On: Matthew Arana · Off: Diadie Samassekou Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Houston Dynamo · On: Matthew Arana · Off: Diadie Samassekou Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Minnesota United FC · On: Carlos Harvey · Off: Tomás Chancalay Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Minnesota United FC · On: Kyle Duncan · Off: Cherrion Valerius Corrected
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo · Marcus Caldeira
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo · Duncan McGuire
93′⚽ GOAL · 92' Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo · Duncan McGuire (assist Nick Markanich)
96′SUBSTITUTION · 96' Minnesota United FC · On: Maurice Malone · Off: Kelvin Yeboah Corrected
FTFULL TIME Minnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo
FTMinnesota United FC 2–2 Houston Dynamo · Minnesota United FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Minnesota United FC win46%

Draw26%

Houston Dynamo win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:30

Venue · Allianz Field

Referee · Marcos De Oliveira

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Minnesota United FC

3-4-3

12 D. Callender

52 C. Valerius

15 M. Boxall

23 M. Duggan

21 B. Hlongwane

30 O. Gene

20 W. Trapp

13 A. Markanich

16 A. Jackson

9 K. Yeboah

8 T. Chancalay

Coach · Cameron Knowles

Substitutes

94 · K. Rizvanovich

3 · K. Duncan

5 · N. Romero

27 · D. Taylor

67 · C. Harvey

25 · N. Triantis

11 · M. Malone

22 · M. Caldeira

18 · M. Gonzalez

Houston Dynamo

4-3-3

31 J. Bond

36 Felipe Andrade

3 Antonio Carlos

5 Lucas Halter

11 L. Ennali

18 D. Samassekou

6 Artur

30 A. Bouzat

19 M. Bogusz

9 L. Foster

20 Guilherme

Coach · Ben Olsen

Substitutes

26 · B. Gillingham

21 · F. Negri

14 · D. Holmes

22 · M. Arana

37 · G. Rivera

17 · N. Markanich

23 · D. McGuire

24 · I. Aliyu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Minnesota United FC

3-4-3

12 D. Callender

52 C. Valerius

15 M. Boxall

23 M. Duggan

21 B. Hlongwane

30 O. Gene

20 W. Trapp

13 A. Markanich

16 A. Jackson

9 K. Yeboah

8 T. Chancalay

Coach · Cameron Knowles

Substitutes

94 · K. Rizvanovich

3 · K. Duncan

5 · N. Romero

27 · D. Taylor

67 · C. Harvey

25 · N. Triantis

11 · M. Malone

22 · M. Caldeira

18 · M. Gonzalez

Houston Dynamo

4-3-3

31 J. Bond

36 Felipe Andrade

3 Antonio Carlos

5 Lucas Halter

11 L. Ennali

18 D. Samassekou

6 Artur

30 A. Bouzat

19 M. Bogusz

9 L. Foster

20 Guilherme

Coach · Ben Olsen

Substitutes

26 · B. Gillingham

21 · F. Negri

14 · D. Holmes

22 · M. Arana

37 · G. Rivera

17 · N. Markanich

23 · D. McGuire

24 · I. Aliyu

Our number · minnesota united fc winPublished 11 Oct 01:31

46% The market45%

Us46%

~~Market~~45%

We make Minnesota United FC a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · minnesota united fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Minnesota United FC win	46%	45%	+1
Draw	26%	27%	−1
Houston Dynamo win	27%	28%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	54%	−3
Both teams to score	54%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	77%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	33%	−5
Minnesota United FC or draw	73%	72%	+1
Minnesota United FC clean sheet	32%	–	–
Houston Dynamo clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.4 7.1 4.4 1 9.8 12.4 6.8 2.6 2 8.1 9.2 5.3 2.0 3 4.2 4.8 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Minnesota United FC down, Houston Dynamo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.55 goals a meeting; 6 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Minnesota United FC at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Houston Dynamo away: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for Minnesota United FC, 1.15 for Houston Dynamo. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 01:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.55

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~MIN 3–1 HOU · HOU 2–0 MIN · HOU 1–1 MIN · MIN 1–2 HOU

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

MINNESOTA UNITED FC

DLLLLL3–3 · 4–5 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 1–3

HOUSTON DYNAMO

DDWLDL0–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21