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Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego

Los Angeles Galaxy
2–2Full time
San Diego

Major League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Dignity Health Sports Park

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 06:00
Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego LOS ANGELES GALAXY WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Los Angeles Galaxy win43%
The market said42%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.891
The market’s Brier score0.876

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Los Angeles Galaxy win at 43%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Los Angeles Galaxy 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego
  4. 4′Los Angeles Galaxy find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–17–16
  5. 4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 San Diego
  6. 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
  7. 8′Los Angeles Galaxy ahead on 4′ through Klauss. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–18–16
  8. 8′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–18–16
  9. 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Los Angeles Galaxy 1–1 San Diego
  10. 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
  11. 12′10′: Anders Dreyer on the scoresheet for San Diego. 2–1 · 67–18–15
  12. 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 San Diego
  13. 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
  14. 13′12′: Klauss on the scoresheet for Los Angeles Galaxy, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 67–18–15
  15. 18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Klauss · Los Angeles Galaxy
  16. 19′17′: Erik Thommy on the scoresheet for Los Angeles Galaxy, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 67–18–14
  17. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Aníbal Godoy · San Diego
  18. 40′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 38–32–31
  19. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego
  20. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
  21. 41′San Diego level it on 39′ through Gabriel Pirani. 2–2. 2–2 · 37–32–31
  22. 45′HALF-TIME Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego
  23. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Klauss · Los Angeles Galaxy
  24. 47′SECOND HALF Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego
  25. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  26. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Los Angeles Galaxy win 33%)
  27. 60′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 2–2 · 31–43–26
  28. 61′10 shots for San Diego, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 31–44–26
  29. 65′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 2–2 · 28–48–24
  30. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' San Diego · On: Marcus Ingvartsen · Off: Cédric Bakambu
  31. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' San Diego · On: Jeppe Tverskov · Off: Alejandro Alvarado Jr
  32. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Jakob Glesnes · Off: Carlos Emiro Garces Torres
  33. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Joseph Paintsil · Off: Robert Taylor
  34. 71′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–55–21
  35. 72′14 shots for San Diego, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 24–56–20
  36. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  37. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole · Off: Sergi Roberto
  38. 78′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 18–66–16
  39. 82′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–75–12
  40. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' San Diego · On: Onni Valakari · Off: Gabriel Pirani
  41. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
  42. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Lucas Felipe·Calegari · Off: Harbor Miller
  43. 86′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–83–8
  44. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' San Diego · On: Dagur Dan Þórhallsson · Off: kieran sargeant
  45. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' San Diego · On: Amahl Pellegrino · Off: Elias Achouri
  46. 92′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
  47. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Marco Reus · Los Angeles Galaxy
  48. 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
  49. FTFULL TIME Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego
  50. FTLos Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego · Los Angeles Galaxy win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Los Angeles Galaxy are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Los Angeles Galaxy 43%, draw 23%, San Diego 34%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Los Angeles Galaxy v San DiegoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Los Angeles Galaxy win43%
Draw23%
San Diego win34%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueDignity Health Sports Park

RefereeRubiel Vazquez

Line-ups

Los Angeles Galaxy

4-2-3-1

San Diego

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Los Angeles Galaxy

San Diego

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Western Conference

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Los Angeles Galaxy30−939
13San Diego29−333

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Los Angeles Galaxy

4-2-3-1

12 J. Marcinkowski

26 Harbor Miller

25 C. Garcés

15 J. Haak

14 J. Nelson

17 P. Ruiz

6 Sergi Roberto

21 R. Taylor

18 M. Reus

27 E. Thommy

99 Klauss

Coach · Greg Vanney

Substitutes

3 · J. Aude

2 · Calegari

76 · T. Elgersma

5 · J. Glesnes

1 · N. Mićović

28 · J. Paintsil

8 · L. Sanabria

22 · E. Wynder

4 · M. Yoshida

San Diego

4-3-3

13 P. Sisniega

33 O. Verhoeven

97 C. McVey

26 M. Duah

5 Kieran Sargeant

70 A. Alvarado

20 A. Godoy

12 Gabriel Pirani

10 A. Dreyer

94 C. Bakambu

99 E. Achouri

Coach · Mikey Varas

Substitutes

7 · M. Ingvartsen

90 · A. Pellegrino

1 · C. dos Santos

36 · David Mimbang

25 · I. Pilcher

8 · O. Valakari

6 · J. Tverskov

14 · B. B. Zamble

3 · D. Þór­halls­son

Our number · los angeles galaxy winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
43% The market42%
Us43%
Market42%

We make Los Angeles Galaxy a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego1.86 – 1.62
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 SeptW3 D1 L2 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 39 v 338 v 13
The market · Los Angeles Galaxy win42% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 12 OCT 04:0618 OCT 03:17
Our probability · Los Angeles Galaxy win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. The market has gone from 48% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Los Angeles Galaxy win43%42%+1
Draw23%24%−1
San Diego win34%34%0
Over 2.5 goals67%71%−4
Both teams to score68%71%−3
Over 1.5 goals86%88%−2
Over 3.5 goals46%51%−5
Los Angeles Galaxy or draw66%66%0
Los Angeles Galaxy clean sheet20%––
San Diego clean sheet16%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%
0123450 3.7 4.6 4.1 2.2 1 5.3 9.7 7.5 4.1 2 5.3 8.5 6.9 3.7 3 3.3 5.3 4.3 2.3 4 2.5 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Los Angeles Galaxy down, San Diego across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored2 of 3
Last meetingsSAN 3–1 LOS · SAN 2–1 LOS · LOS 0–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept

LOS ANGELES GALAXY

LDWWLW0–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–6 · 2–0

SAN DIEGO

LLDDLD2–3 · 0–5 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 3–3

The table

2026 · Western Conference
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vancouver Whitecaps29+3152
2St. Louis City30+1551
3FC Dallas29+850
4San Jose Earthquakes29+1047
5Houston Dynamo29+246
6Los Angeles FC30+1545
7Seattle Sounders29+241
8Los Angeles Galaxy30−939
9Colorado Rapids29038
10Minnesota United FC30−834
11Portland Timbers29−533
12Real Salt Lake29−533
13San Diego29−333
14Austin29−1731
15Sporting Kansas City29−3722

The competition's standings before kick-off.