Home › Football › Major League Soccer › Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego
Back

Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego
Los Angeles Galaxy
San DiegoMajor League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Dignity Health Sports Park
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Los Angeles Galaxy win at 43%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Los Angeles Galaxy 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–23–34
- 2′KICK-OFF Los Angeles Galaxy v San Diego
- 4′Los Angeles Galaxy find the net on 3′. 1–0. 1–0 · 66–17–16
- 4′⚽ GOAL · 3' Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 San Diego
- 4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 66% now
- 8′Los Angeles Galaxy ahead on 4′ through Klauss. 1–0. 1–0 · 67–18–16
- 8′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 67%. 1–0 · 67–18–16
- 10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Los Angeles Galaxy 1–1 San Diego
- 10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 42% now
- 12′10′: Anders Dreyer on the scoresheet for San Diego. 2–1 · 67–18–15
- 12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Los Angeles Galaxy 2–1 San Diego
- 12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 67% now
- 13′12′: Klauss on the scoresheet for Los Angeles Galaxy, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 67–18–15
- 18′GOAL DISALLOWED · 14' Klauss · Los Angeles Galaxy
- 19′17′: Erik Thommy on the scoresheet for Los Angeles Galaxy, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 67–18–14
- 39′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Aníbal Godoy · San Diego
- 40′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 38–32–31
- 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego
- 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 38% now
- 41′San Diego level it on 39′ through Gabriel Pirani. 2–2. 2–2 · 37–32–31
- 45′HALF-TIME Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego
- 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Klauss · Los Angeles Galaxy
- 47′SECOND HALF Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego
- 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
- 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Los Angeles Galaxy win 33%)
- 60′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 2–2 · 31–43–26
- 61′10 shots for San Diego, 5 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 31–44–26
- 65′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 2–2 · 28–48–24
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' San Diego · On: Marcus Ingvartsen · Off: Cédric Bakambu
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' San Diego · On: Jeppe Tverskov · Off: Alejandro Alvarado Jr
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Jakob Glesnes · Off: Carlos Emiro Garces Torres
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Joseph Paintsil · Off: Robert Taylor
- 71′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–55–21
- 72′14 shots for San Diego, 8 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 2–2 · 24–56–20
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole · Off: Sergi Roberto
- 78′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 2–2 · 18–66–16
- 82′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 13–75–12
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 78' San Diego · On: Onni Valakari · Off: Gabriel Pirani
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Lucas Felipe·Calegari · Off: Harbor Miller
- 86′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 9–83–8
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' San Diego · On: Dagur Dan Þórhallsson · Off: kieran sargeant
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 83' San Diego · On: Amahl Pellegrino · Off: Elias Achouri
- 92′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–93–3
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Marco Reus · Los Angeles Galaxy
- 94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
- FTFULL TIME Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego
- FTLos Angeles Galaxy 2–2 San Diego · Los Angeles Galaxy win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Los Angeles Galaxy are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Los Angeles Galaxy 43%, draw 23%, San Diego 34%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 68%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Los Angeles Galaxy win43%
San Diego win34%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 03:30
RoundMatchday 30
VenueDignity Health Sports Park
RefereeRubiel Vazquez
Match timeline
All events
Los Angeles GalaxyMIN
San DiegoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Los Angeles Galaxy
4-2-3-1
San Diego
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Los Angeles Galaxy
San Diego
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Los Angeles Galaxy
4-2-3-1
12 J. Marcinkowski
26 Harbor Miller
25 C. Garcés
15 J. Haak
14 J. Nelson
17 P. Ruiz
6 Sergi Roberto
21 R. Taylor
18 M. Reus
27 E. Thommy
99 Klauss
Coach · Greg Vanney
Substitutes
3 · J. Aude
2 · Calegari
76 · T. Elgersma
5 · J. Glesnes
1 · N. Mićović
28 · J. Paintsil
8 · L. Sanabria
22 · E. Wynder
4 · M. Yoshida
San Diego
4-3-3
13 P. Sisniega
33 O. Verhoeven
97 C. McVey
26 M. Duah
5 Kieran Sargeant
70 A. Alvarado
20 A. Godoy
12 Gabriel Pirani
10 A. Dreyer
94 C. Bakambu
99 E. Achouri
Coach · Mikey Varas
Substitutes
7 · M. Ingvartsen
90 · A. Pellegrino
1 · C. dos Santos
36 · David Mimbang
25 · I. Pilcher
8 · O. Valakari
6 · J. Tverskov
14 · B. B. Zamble
3 · D. Þórhallsson
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Los Angeles Galaxy
4-2-3-1
12 J. Marcinkowski
26 Harbor Miller
25 C. Garcés
15 J. Haak
14 J. Nelson
17 P. Ruiz
6 Sergi Roberto
21 R. Taylor
18 M. Reus
27 E. Thommy
99 Klauss
Coach · Greg Vanney
Substitutes
3 · J. Aude
2 · Calegari
76 · T. Elgersma
5 · J. Glesnes
1 · N. Mićović
28 · J. Paintsil
8 · L. Sanabria
22 · E. Wynder
4 · M. Yoshida
San Diego
4-3-3
13 P. Sisniega
33 O. Verhoeven
97 C. McVey
26 M. Duah
5 Kieran Sargeant
70 A. Alvarado
20 A. Godoy
12 Gabriel Pirani
10 A. Dreyer
94 C. Bakambu
99 E. Achouri
Coach · Mikey Varas
Substitutes
7 · M. Ingvartsen
90 · A. Pellegrino
1 · C. dos Santos
36 · David Mimbang
25 · I. Pilcher
8 · O. Valakari
6 · J. Tverskov
14 · B. B. Zamble
3 · D. Þórhallsson
We make Los Angeles Galaxy a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 42%, 43% now. The market has gone from 48% to 42% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Galaxy win | 43% | 42% | +1 |
| Draw | 23% | 24% | −1 |
| San Diego win | 34% | 34% | 0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67% | 71% | −4 |
| Both teams to score | 68% | 71% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 86% | 88% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 46% | 51% | −5 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy or draw | 66% | 66% | 0 |
| Los Angeles Galaxy clean sheet | 20% | – | – |
| San Diego clean sheet | 16% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2025Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept
LOS ANGELES GALAXY
SAN DIEGO
The table
2026 · Western Conference| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | +31 | 52 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 30 | +15 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 29 | +8 | 50 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | +10 | 47 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 29 | +2 | 46 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 30 | +15 | 45 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 29 | +2 | 41 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | −9 | 39 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 10 | Minnesota United FC | 30 | −8 | 34 |
| 11 | Portland Timbers | 29 | −5 | 33 |
| 12 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | −5 | 33 |
| 13 | San Diego | 29 | −3 | 33 |
| 14 | Austin | 29 | −17 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | −37 | 22 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Colorado Rapids
Minnesota United FC
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
Austin
Sporting Kansas City