Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 06:00

Los Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Portland Timbers LOS ANGELES GALAXY WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Los Angeles Galaxy win~~48%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.465

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Los Angeles Galaxy win at 48%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Los Angeles Galaxy 48% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–22–30
1′KICK-OFF Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Los Angeles Galaxy 0–1 Portland Timbers
6′GOAL DISALLOWED · 6' Portland Timbers
17′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–17–13
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 Portland Timbers
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 48% at kick-off, 70% now
18′Los Angeles Galaxy find the net on 17′. 1–0. 1–0 · 70–17–12
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Los Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Portland Timbers · Marco Reus
20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' Los Angeles Galaxy
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 71–18–11
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Pablo Ruiz · Los Angeles Galaxy
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Sergi Roberto · Los Angeles Galaxy
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Jímer Fory · Portland Timbers
40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Jímer Fory · Portland Timbers
45′HALF-TIME Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 Portland Timbers
46′SECOND HALF Los Angeles Galaxy 1–0 Portland Timbers
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Justin Haak · Los Angeles Galaxy
56′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Kristoffer Velde · Portland Timbers
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Portland Timbers · On: Ian Smith · Off: Jímer Fory
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
70′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Lucas Agustin·Sanabria Magole · Off: Sergi Roberto
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Harbor Miller · Off: Joseph Paintsil
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Erik Thommy · Off: Robert Taylor
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Portland Timbers · On: Alexander Aravena · Off: Vincent Janssen
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Portland Timbers · On: Eric Izoita · Off: Jose Caicedo
78′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–1
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Los Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Portland Timbers · Marco Reus
81′Justin Haak scores for Los Angeles Galaxy on 80′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 81' Los Angeles Galaxy win: 48% at kick-off, 99% now
82′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Portland Timbers · On: Omir Fernandez · Off: Ariel Lassiter
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Portland Timbers · On: Diego Chará · Off: Julio Joao Ortiz Landazuri
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' David Da Costa · Portland Timbers
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Elijah Wynder · Off: Marco Reus
84′We said Los Angeles Galaxy at 48% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Los Angeles Galaxy · On: Maya Yoshida · Off: Carlos Emiro Garces Torres
FTFULL TIME Los Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Portland Timbers
FTLos Angeles Galaxy 2–0 Portland Timbers · Los Angeles Galaxy win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Los Angeles Galaxy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Los Angeles Galaxy 48%, draw 23%, Portland Timbers 30%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland TimbersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 03:01 · locked at kick-off

Los Angeles Galaxy win48%

Draw23%

Portland Timbers win30%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 03:30

VenueDignity Health Sports Park

RefereeChristopher Penso

Line-ups

Los Angeles Galaxy

4-2-3-1

Portland Timbers

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Los Angeles Galaxy

Portland Timbers

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	-3	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Los Angeles Galaxy

4-2-3-1

12 J. Marcinkowski

2 Calegari

15 J. Haak

25 C. Garcés

14 J. Nelson

17 P. Ruiz

6 Sergi Roberto

18 M. Reus

28 J. Paintsil

21 R. Taylor

99 Klauss

Coach · Greg Vanney

Substitutes

3 · J. Aude

76 · T. Elgersma

5 · J. Glesnes

1 · N. Mićović

26 · Harbor Miller

8 · L. Sanabria

27 · E. Thommy

22 · E. Wynder

4 · M. Yoshida

Portland Timbers

4-3-3

41 J. Pantemis

12 R. Hernández

2 J. Waterman

4 K. Miller

27 J. Fory

80 J. Ortiz

30 J. Caicedo

10 David Pereira da Costa

7 A. Lassiter

14 V. Janssen

99 K. Velde

Coach · Martí Cifuentes

Substitutes

23 · Ian Smith

25 · T. Muse

15 · E. Miller

73 · Eric Izoita

22 · O. Fernandez

21 · D. Chará

17 · C. Bassett

28 · A. Aravena

11 · Antony

Our number · los angeles galaxy winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 03:01 · locked at kick-off

48% The market44%

Us48%

~~Market~~44%

We make Los Angeles Galaxy a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Los Angeles Galaxy v Portland Timbers~~1.99 – 1.55

~~Last six in Major League Soccer~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 33~~9 v 10

~~The market · Los Angeles Galaxy win~~44% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · los angeles galaxy win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 44% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Los Angeles Galaxy win	48%	44%	+3
Draw	23%	24%	−2
Portland Timbers win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	69%	0
Both teams to score	68%	69%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	87%	86%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	49%	−2
Los Angeles Galaxy or draw	70%	69%	+1
Los Angeles Galaxy clean sheet	22%	–	–
Portland Timbers clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.5 4.1 3.5 1 5.4 9.4 6.9 3.6 2 5.8 8.8 6.8 3.5 3 3.8 5.8 4.5 2.3 4 2.9 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Los Angeles Galaxy down, Portland Timbers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,964 Major League Soccer matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 3.67 goals a meeting; 8 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Los Angeles Galaxy at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Portland Timbers away: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy, 1.55 for Portland Timbers. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 03:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 12

~~Both scored~~10 of 12

~~Last meetings~~POR 1–1 LOS · LOS 2–4 POR · POR 1–1 LOS · POR 4–2 LOS

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

LOS ANGELES GALAXY

WLDWWL2–1 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–6

PORTLAND TIMBERS

WDLLLD5–4 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	28	31	51
2	St. Louis City	28	16	50
3	FC Dallas	28	7	47
4	San Jose Earthquakes	28	10	46
5	Houston Dynamo	28	2	45
6	Los Angeles FC	29	13	42
7	Seattle Sounders	28	3	41
8	Colorado Rapids	28	0	37
9	Los Angeles Galaxy	29	-11	36
10	Portland Timbers	28	-3	33
11	Real Salt Lake	28	-5	32
12	San Diego	28	-3	32
13	Austin	28	-15	31
14	Minnesota United FC	28	-9	30
15	Sporting Kansas City	28	-33	22