Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Los Angeles GalaxyDrawAustin

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 21:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Los Angeles Galaxy 53%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Los Angeles Galaxy are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Los Angeles Galaxy 53%, draw 23%, Austin 24%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Los Angeles Galaxy v AustinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Los Angeles Galaxy win53%

Draw23%

Austin win24%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 21:00

RoundMatchday 33

VenueDignity Health Sports Park

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Los Angeles Galaxy

Austin

13Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 25 Oct · Major League Soccer

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
14	Austin	30	−18	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · los angeles galaxy winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

53% The market–

Us53%

We make Los Angeles Galaxy a 53% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Los Angeles Galaxy v Austin~~1.94 – 1.26

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 40 v 31~~8 v 14

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Los Angeles Galaxy win	53%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Austin win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Los Angeles Galaxy or draw	76%	–	–
Los Angeles Galaxy clean sheet	29%	–	–
Austin clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 4.8 4.6 3.3 1 7.4 10.5 6.2 2.6 2 7.7 9.5 6.0 2.5 3 5.0 6.2 3.9 4 2.4 3.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Los Angeles Galaxy down, Austin across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Los Angeles Galaxy at home: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Austin away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.94 goals for Los Angeles Galaxy, 1.26 for Austin. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~AUS 1–2 LOS · LOS 1–2 AUS · AUS 1–0 LOS · LOS 2–1 AUS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

LOS ANGELES GALAXY

DWWLWD1–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–6 · 2–0 · 2–2

AUSTIN

DDLLLW0–0 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 1–2 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22