Los Angeles FC v Vancouver Whitecaps prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 06:00

Los Angeles FC 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps LOS ANGELES FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Los Angeles FC win~~45%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.845

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.817

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Los Angeles FC win at 45%.
1′Much as we predicted: Los Angeles FC was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
1′KICK-OFF Los Angeles FC v Vancouver Whitecaps
2′Much as we predicted: Los Angeles FC was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
6′🟥 RED CARD · 6' 1419259 · Vancouver Whitecaps
6′🟥 RED CARD · 6' Tristan Blackmon · Vancouver Whitecaps
9′A red card for Vancouver Whitecaps on 6′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 44–26–30
10′A red card for Vancouver Whitecaps on 6′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 0–0 · 44–26–30
10′SUBSTITUTION · 10' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Mathías Laborda · Off: Emmanuel Sabbi Corrected
25′🟨 YELLOW · 25' Mathieu Choinière · Los Angeles FC
37′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Jesper Ingemann Sørensen · Vancouver Whitecaps
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Los Angeles FC 0–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Los Angeles FC 0–1 Vancouver Whitecaps · Oliver Love Larraz
45′SECOND HALF Los Angeles FC 0–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Los Angeles FC 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps · Oliver Love Larraz
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Los Angeles FC · On: Igor Jesus · Off: Mathieu Choinière Corrected
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Los Angeles FC 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps · Denis Bouanga
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Los Angeles FC · On: Leo Walta · Off: Jacob Shaffelburg Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Igor Jesus · Los Angeles FC
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Bruno Caicedo · Off: Yadaly Diaby Corrected
76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Édier Ocampo · Vancouver Whitecaps
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Los Angeles FC · On: Ryan Hollingshead · Off: Sergi Palencia Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Los Angeles FC · On: Marky Delgado · Off: Sergio Vasquez Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Los Angeles FC · On: Thayllon Roberth dos Santos Rebelo · Off: Armindo Sieb Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Ryan Hollingshead · Los Angeles FC
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Ranko Veselinovic · Off: Oliver Love Larraz Corrected
92′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Mathías Laborda · Vancouver Whitecaps
FTFULL TIME Los Angeles FC 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
FTLos Angeles FC 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps · Los Angeles FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Los Angeles FC win45%

Draw25%

Vancouver Whitecaps win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 03:30

VenueBanc of California Stadium

RefereeGuido Gonzales Jr

Line-ups

Los Angeles FC

4-2-3-1

Vancouver Whitecaps

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Los Angeles FC

Vancouver Whitecaps

14Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
12	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Los Angeles FC

4-2-3-1

1 H. Lloris

14 S. Palencia

5 R. Porteous

4 E. Segura

23 Y. Cheberko

20 S. Vasquez

66 M. Choiniere

9 A. Sieb

7 Son Heung-Min

18 J. Shaffelburg

99 D. Bouanga

Coach · Xavi Tamarit

Substitutes

12 · T. Hasal

24 · R. Hollingshead

33 · A. Long

91 · Nkosi Tafari

6 · Igor Jesus

8 · M. Delgado

81 · L. Walta

19 · T. Boyd

43 · Thayllon

Vancouver Whitecaps

4-2-3-1

1 Y. Takaoka

18 E. Ocampo

33 T. Blackmon

6 R. Priso

28 T. Johnson

20 A. Cubas

8 O. Larraz

11 E. Sabbi

25 R. Gauld

77 Y. Diaby

24 B. White

Coach · Jesper Sorensen

Substitutes

32 · I. Boehmer

4 · R. Veselinovic

29 · M. Gherasimencov

2 · M. Laborda

70 · R. Modesto

23 · A. Cvetkovic

19 · R. Elloumi

7 · C. Sabaly

14 · B. Caicedo

Our number · los angeles fc winPublished 11 Oct 03:54

45% The market39%

Us45%

~~Market~~39%

We make Los Angeles FC a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · los angeles fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Los Angeles FC win	45%	39%	+6
Draw	25%	26%	−1
Vancouver Whitecaps win	30%	35%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	55%	59%	−4
Both teams to score	58%	63%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Los Angeles FC or draw	70%	65%	+5
Los Angeles FC clean sheet	28%	–	–
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 6.2 6.5 4.5 1 8.3 11.9 7.2 3.1 2 7.2 9.1 5.8 2.5 3 3.9 4.9 3.2 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Los Angeles FC down, Vancouver Whitecaps across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,958 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 414 played.

Head to head

18 previous meetings, 2.94 goals a meeting; 11 of 18 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Los Angeles FC at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Vancouver Whitecaps away: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.62 goals for Los Angeles FC, 1.28 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 03:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

18 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.94

~~Over 2.5~~11 of 18

~~Both scored~~12 of 18

~~Last meetings~~VAN 1–1 LOS · VAN 2–2 LOS · LOS 0–1 VAN · VAN 2–2 LOS

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

LOS ANGELES FC

DDWLDL0–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS

LWLWDL1–3 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	Inter Miami	28	+18	49
4	Chicago Fire	28	+11	48
5	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
6	FC Dallas	28	+7	47
7	Charlotte	28	+10	46
8	New England Revolution	28	+6	46
9	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
10	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
11	Philadelphia Union	28	+11	42
12	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
13	Seattle Sounders	28	+3	41
14	Orlando City SC	28	−15	37
15	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
16	FC Cincinnati	27	−7	36
17	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
18	New York Red Bulls	28	−14	36
19	New York City FC	28	+4	33
20	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
21	San Diego	28	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	28	−5	32
23	Toronto FC	28	−11	32
24	Austin	27	−12	31
25	DC United	27	−12	30
26	Columbus Crew	28	−5	29
27	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
28	Atlanta United FC	28	−15	27
29	CF Montreal	28	−21	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21