Los Angeles FC v Los Angeles Galaxy prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Los Angeles FCDrawLos Angeles Galaxy

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Los Angeles FC 61%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Los Angeles FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Los Angeles FC 61%, draw 21%, Los Angeles Galaxy 18%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Los Angeles FC v Los Angeles GalaxyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Los Angeles FC win61%

Draw21%

Los Angeles Galaxy win18%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 01:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueBanc of California Stadium

RefereeArmando Villarreal

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Los Angeles FC

Los Angeles Galaxy

9Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · los angeles fc winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

61% The market61%

Us61%

~~Market~~61%

We make Los Angeles FC a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.2–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Los Angeles FC v Los Angeles Galaxy~~2.16 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 46 v 40~~6 v 8

~~The market · Los Angeles FC win~~61% · ours 61%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Los Angeles FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Los Angeles FC win	61%	61%	0
Draw	21%	20%	+1
Los Angeles Galaxy win	18%	18%	0
Over 2.5 goals	62%	67%	−5
Both teams to score	59%	62%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	84%	84%	0
Over 3.5 goals	40%	46%	−6
Los Angeles FC or draw	82%	82%	0
Los Angeles FC clean sheet	34%	–	–
Los Angeles Galaxy clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%

0123450 4.6 3.8 2.3 1 8.0 9.7 4.9 2 9.1 9.7 5.2 3 6.5 7.0 3.7 4 3.6 3.8 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Los Angeles FC down, Los Angeles Galaxy across0–5 goals a side shown (97.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Los Angeles FC at home: 1.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Los Angeles Galaxy away: 1.33 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.16 goals for Los Angeles FC, 1.08 for Los Angeles Galaxy. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~Los Angeles Galaxy 0–3 Los Angeles FC · Los Angeles FC 3–3 Los Angeles Galaxy · Los Angeles Galaxy 2–2 Los Angeles FC · Los Angeles Galaxy 4–2 Los Angeles FC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

LOS ANGELES FC

LDLDWD1–3 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

LOS ANGELES GALAXY

DWWLWD1–1 · 3–2 · 3–2 · 2–6 · 2–0 · 2–2

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22