Inter Miami v New York City FC prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 03:00

Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FC INTER MIAMI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Miami win~~56%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.288

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Miami win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Inter Miami was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–20–23
1′KICK-OFF Inter Miami v New York City FC
19′We published Inter Miami at 56%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–15–9
19′⚽ GOAL · 19' Inter Miami 1–0 New York City FC
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Inter Miami win: 56% at kick-off, 77% now
21′20′ and it is 1–0: Germán Berterame on the scoresheet for Inter Miami. 1–0 · 77–15–8
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 77–15–8
45′Inter Miami ahead on 45′ through Rodrigo De Paul. 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
45′SECOND HALF Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FC
49′We published Inter Miami at 56%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FC · Germán Berterame
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Inter Miami win: 56% at kick-off, 94% now
50′We published Inter Miami at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Matías Galarza · Inter Miami
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Inter Miami win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' New York City FC · On: Hannes Wolf · Off: Alonso Martinez
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' New York City FC · On: Kevin O'Toole · Off: Nico Cavallo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Inter Miami · On: Telasco Segovia · Off: Matías Galarza
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' New York City FC · On: Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos · Off: Bénie Adama Traoré Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' New York City FC · On: Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos · Off: Bénie Adama Traoré
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Inter Miami · On: Fricio Caicedo · Off: Sergio Reguilón
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Inter Miami · On: Riquelme Fillipi · Off: Germán Berterame
84′We published Inter Miami at 56%. Our model now makes it 100%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Riquelme Fillipi · Inter Miami
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' New York City FC · On: Malachi Jones · Off: Agustin Ojeda
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' New York City FC · On: Talles Magno · Off: Aiden O'Neill
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Inter Miami · On: Ian Fray · Off: David Ayala
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Inter Miami 2–1 New York City FC
96′PENALTY MISSED · 97' Nicolás Fernández Mercau · New York City FC
101′GOAL DISALLOWED · 101' New York City FC
FTFULL TIME Inter Miami 2–0 New York City FC
FTInter Miami 2–0 New York City FC · Inter Miami win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Miami are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Miami 56%, draw 21%, New York City FC 23%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Inter Miami v New York City FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

Inter Miami win56%

Draw21%

New York City FC win23%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:30

VenueNu Stadium

RefereeLorenzo Hernandez

Line-ups

Inter Miami

4-3-3

New York City FC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Miami

New York City FC

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Inter Miami	28	18	49
10	New York City FC	28	4	33

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Inter Miami

4-3-3

97 D. St. Clair

2 G. Luján

5 Casemiro

16 Micael

3 Reguilón

7 R. De Paul

22 D. Ayala

80 M. Galarza

10 L. Messi

9 L. Suárez

19 G. Berterame

Coach · Kily González

Substitutes

37 · M. Falcón

17 · I. Fray

56 · Daniel Pinter

34 · R. Ríos Novo

11 · Riquelme Fillipi

8 · T. Segovia

88 · A. Shaw

15 · F. Caicedo

20 · S. Morales

New York City FC

4-2-3-1

49 M. Freese

24 T. Gray

13 Thiago Martins

6 J. Sands

2 Nico Cavallo

21 A. O'Neill

8 A. Perea

26 A. Ojeda

7 N. Fernández Mercau

9 B. Traoré

16 A. Martínez

Coach · P. Jansen

Substitutes

88 · M. Jones

17 · H. Wolf

3 · M. Miazga

22 · K. O'Toole

34 · Raul Gustavo

30 · T. Romero

32 · J. Shore

11 · Talles Magno

20 · Luighi Hanri

Our number · inter miami winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

56% The market61%

Us56%

~~Market~~61%

We make Inter Miami a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter Miami v New York City FC~~2.20 – 1.35

~~Last six in Major League Soccer~~W1 D4 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 49 v 33~~2 v 10

~~The market · Inter Miami win~~61% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · inter miami win The market, margin stripped

Published at 55%, 56% now. The market has gone from 65% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Miami win	56%	61%	−5
Draw	21%	20%	+1
New York City FC win	23%	18%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	69%	66%	+2
Both teams to score	66%	62%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	87%	84%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	47%	46%	+1
Inter Miami or draw	77%	82%	−4
Inter Miami clean sheet	26%	–	–
New York City FC clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.2%

0123450 3.4 3.5 2.7 1 5.9 9.0 5.7 2.6 2 6.9 9.2 6.2 2.8 3 5.1 6.7 4.5 2.1 4 2.8 3.7 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Miami down, New York City FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,964 Major League Soccer matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.23 goals a meeting; 7 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter Miami at home: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). New York City FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.20 goals for Inter Miami, 1.35 for New York City FC. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 00:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.23

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 13

~~Both scored~~8 of 13

~~Last meetings~~NEW 2–3 INT · INT 5–1 NEW · NEW 0–4 INT · INT 2–2 NEW

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

INTER MIAMI

DDDDLW2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0

NEW YORK CITY FC

DLWLDL0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	28	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	-11	32
12	DC United	27	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	-21	24