Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Inter MiamiDrawFC Cincinnati

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Inter Miami 63%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Miami are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Inter Miami 63%, draw 18%, FC Cincinnati 20%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 74%.

The AI’s read on Inter Miami v FC CincinnatiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Inter Miami win63%

Draw18%

FC Cincinnati win20%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueNu Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Inter Miami

FC Cincinnati

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 25 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Inter Miami	31	+20	55
9	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · inter miami winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 01:32 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Inter Miami a 63% chance to win. The model expects 2.8–1.6, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Inter Miami v FC Cincinnati~~2.79 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 20 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 55 v 39~~2 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Miami win

Published at 64%, 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Miami win	63%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
FC Cincinnati win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	74%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Inter Miami or draw	80%	–	–
Inter Miami clean sheet	21%	–	–
FC Cincinnati clean sheet	7%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 7.7%

0123450 1 3.4 6.1 4.4 2.3 2 5.0 7.7 6.0 3.1 3 4.6 7.1 5.5 2.9 4 3.2 4.9 3.8 2.0 5 2.8 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Miami down, FC Cincinnati across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter Miami at home: 3.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Cincinnati away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.79 goals for Inter Miami, 1.56 for FC Cincinnati. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCC 3–5 INT · FCC 0–4 INT · INT 0–0 FCC · FCC 3–0 INT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 20 Sept

INTER MIAMI

DLWWWL2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 0–2

FC CINCINNATI

LWLLWW1–3 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	31	+43	70
2	Inter Miami	31	+20	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	New York Red Bulls	31	−15	39
9	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	+1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	−11	36
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	31	−26	25