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Inter Miami v DC United

Inter Miami

4–0Full time

DC United

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Nu Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

Inter Miami 4–0 DC United INTER MIAMI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Miami win~~71%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.130

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.173

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Miami win at 71%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Inter Miami 71% before kick-off, 71% now. 0–0 · 71–15–13
1′KICK-OFF Inter Miami v DC United
2′We said Inter Miami at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–5
2′⚽ GOAL · 2' Inter Miami 1–0 DC United
2′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 2' Inter Miami win: 71% at kick-off, 87% now
2′⚽ GOAL · 3' Inter Miami 1–0 DC United
3′A goal for Inter Miami on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–9–5
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Inter Miami win: 71% at kick-off, 87% now
6′Luis Suárez scores for Inter Miami on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 86–9–5
7′We said Inter Miami at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–9–5
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Inter Miami win: 71% at kick-off, 86% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Inter Miami win: 71% at kick-off, 86% now
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Inter Miami 2–0 DC United · Luis Suárez
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Inter Miami 2–0 DC United · Luis Suárez
45′SECOND HALF Inter Miami 2–0 DC United
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Inter Miami 3–0 DC United · Luis Suárez
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Inter Miami 3–0 DC United · Lionel Messi
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' DC United · On: Nathan Ordaz · Off: Jackson Hopkins Corrected
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' DC United · On: Matti Peltola · Off: Nikola Marković Corrected
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Inter Miami 4–0 DC United · Lionel Messi
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Inter Miami 4–0 DC United · Lionel Messi
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Inter Miami · On: Riquelme Fillipi · Off: Luis Suárez Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' DC United · On: Silvan Hefti · Off: Hosei Kijima Corrected
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' DC United · On: Brandon Servania · Off: Andre Dozzell Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Inter Miami · On: Telasco Segovia · Off: David Ayala Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Inter Miami · On: Maximiliano Falcon · Off: Micael dos Santos Silva Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Inter Miami · On: Ian Fray · Off: Sergio Reguilón Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Inter Miami · On: Alexander Shaw · Off: Rodrigo De Paul Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' DC United · On: Jared Stroud · Off: João Gabriel Martins Peglow Corrected
FTFULL TIME Inter Miami 4–0 DC United
FTInter Miami 4–0 DC United · Inter Miami win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Inter Miami win71%

Draw16%

DC United win14%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Nu Stadium

Referee · Lukasz Szpala

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Inter Miami

4-3-3

97 D. St.Clair

2 G. Lujan

5 Casemiro

16 Micael

3 S. Reguilon

7 R. de Paul

22 D. Ayala

80 M. Galarza

10 L. Messi

9 L. Suarez

19 G. Berterame

Coach · Kily Gonzalez

Substitutes

34 · R. Rios

37 · M. Falcon

17 · I. Fray

76 · C. Abadia-Reda

8 · T. Segovia

59 · P. Plambeck

88 · A. Shaw

11 · Riquelme Fillipi

56 · D. Pinter

DC United

4-4-2

1 S. Johnson

2 K. Nono

3 L. Bartlett

15 K. Rowles

6 K. Kurokawa

77 H. Kijima

27 N. Markovic

21 A. Dozzell

7 Peglow

9 T. Baribo

25 J. Hopkins

Coach · Rene Weiler

Substitutes

26 · A. Bono

5 · S. Hefti

13 · S. Nealis

12 · C. Antley

23 · B. Servania

4 · M. Peltola

8 · J. Stroud

22 · N. Ordaz

32 · O. Avilez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Inter Miami

4-3-3

97 D. St.Clair

2 G. Lujan

5 Casemiro

16 Micael

3 S. Reguilon

7 R. de Paul

22 D. Ayala

80 M. Galarza

10 L. Messi

9 L. Suarez

19 G. Berterame

Coach · Kily Gonzalez

Substitutes

34 · R. Rios

37 · M. Falcon

17 · I. Fray

76 · C. Abadia-Reda

8 · T. Segovia

59 · P. Plambeck

88 · A. Shaw

11 · Riquelme Fillipi

56 · D. Pinter

DC United

4-4-2

1 S. Johnson

2 K. Nono

3 L. Bartlett

15 K. Rowles

6 K. Kurokawa

77 H. Kijima

27 N. Markovic

21 A. Dozzell

7 Peglow

9 T. Baribo

25 J. Hopkins

Coach · Rene Weiler

Substitutes

26 · A. Bono

5 · S. Hefti

13 · S. Nealis

12 · C. Antley

23 · B. Servania

4 · M. Peltola

8 · J. Stroud

22 · N. Ordaz

32 · O. Avilez

Our number · inter miami winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

71% The market66%

Us71%

~~Market~~66%

We make Inter Miami a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · inter miami win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 69% to 66% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Inter Miami win	71%	66%	+5
Draw	16%	18%	−2
DC United win	14%	16%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	77%	74%	+2
Both teams to score	66%	67%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	91%	89%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	57%	56%	+2
Inter Miami or draw	86%	84%	+2
Inter Miami clean sheet	30%	–	–
DC United clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 8.3%

0123450 2.2 1 4.7 6.3 3.6 2 7.0 8.3 5.0 2.0 3 6.5 7.8 4.7 4 4.7 5.6 3.3 5 2.8 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Inter Miami down, DC United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.18 goals a meeting; 8 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Inter Miami at home: 2.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). DC United away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.86 goals for Inter Miami, 1.21 for DC United. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.18

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~DCU 1–2 INT · INT 3–2 DCU · DCU 1–1 INT · INT 1–0 DCU

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

INTER MIAMI

WDDDDL7–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2

DC UNITED

LDWDLD1–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 3–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21