Houston Dynamo v Minnesota United FC prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Houston DynamoDrawMinnesota United FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Houston Dynamo 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Houston Dynamo are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Houston Dynamo 45%, draw 26%, Minnesota United FC 29%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Houston Dynamo v Minnesota United FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Houston Dynamo win45%

Draw26%

Minnesota United FC win29%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueBBVA Compass Stadium

RefereeTori Penso

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Houston Dynamo

Minnesota United FC

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 17 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · houston dynamo winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

45% The market44%

Us45%

~~Market~~44%

We make Houston Dynamo a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Houston Dynamo v Minnesota United FC~~1.59 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W0 D4 L2 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 47 v 34~~5 v 13

~~The market · Houston Dynamo win~~44% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Houston Dynamo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Houston Dynamo win	45%	44%	+1
Draw	26%	26%	0
Minnesota United FC win	29%	30%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	54%	58%	−4
Both teams to score	57%	61%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	79%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	37%	−6
Houston Dynamo or draw	71%	70%	+1
Houston Dynamo clean sheet	29%	–	–
Minnesota United FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 6.7 6.7 4.5 1 8.8 12.2 7.1 3.0 2 7.5 9.1 5.6 2.3 3 4.0 4.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Houston Dynamo down, Minnesota United FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Houston Dynamo at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Minnesota United FC away: 2.50 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Houston Dynamo, 1.23 for Minnesota United FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MIN 2–2 HOU · MIN 3–1 HOU · HOU 2–0 MIN · HOU 1–1 MIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

HOUSTON DYNAMO

LDLDDD0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3 · 2–2

MINNESOTA UNITED FC

LLLDDW2–4 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22