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Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas

Houston Dynamo

2–2Full time

FC Dallas

Major League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · BBVA Compass Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:05

Houston Dynamo 2–2 FC Dallas HOUSTON DYNAMO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Houston Dynamo win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.817

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.797

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay19 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Houston Dynamo win at 43%.
3′KICK-OFF Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas
4′Little has changed for our model: Houston Dynamo 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
14′We said Houston Dynamo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
14′Christian Cappis scores for FC Dallas on 12′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–22–59
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Houston Dynamo 0–1 FC Dallas
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 19% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' FC Dallas win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Houston Dynamo win 19%)
29′28′: Petar Musa on the scoresheet for FC Dallas. 0–1 · 15–23–61
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–61
30′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Petar Musa · FC Dallas
35′We said Houston Dynamo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–63
36′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Agustin Resch · Houston Dynamo
36′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Franco Negri · Houston Dynamo
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
45′HALF-TIME Houston Dynamo 0–1 FC Dallas
45′SECOND HALF Houston Dynamo 0–1 FC Dallas
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Houston Dynamo 1–1 FC Dallas
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 34% now
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Dallas win 26%)
50′49′: Héctor Herrera on the scoresheet for Houston Dynamo, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 33–42–25
55′We said Houston Dynamo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–45–24
59′We said Houston Dynamo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
60′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Sebastien Ibeagha · FC Dallas
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Diadie Samassekou · Houston Dynamo
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Houston Dynamo · On: Ibrahim Aliyu · Off: Diadie Samassekou
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Dallas · On: Joaquín Valiente Cioli · Off: Patrickson Delgado
66′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Dallas · On: Santiago Moreno · Off: Daniel Job
67′We said Houston Dynamo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Houston Dynamo 1–2 FC Dallas
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 4% now
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' FC Dallas win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 20%)
68′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 4–20–76
68′FC Dallas ahead on 67′ through Herman Johansson. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
69′We said Houston Dynamo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 23–58–18
69′GOAL DISALLOWED · 69' FC Dallas
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 58% (was FC Dallas win 18%)
76′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Houston Dynamo · On: Duncan McGuire · Off: Lyle Foster
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Dallas · On: Ran Binyamin · Off: Herman Johansson
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
86′We said Houston Dynamo at 43%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 1–1 · 8–86–6
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Houston Dynamo · On: Duane Holmes · Off: Lawrence Ennali
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Houston Dynamo · On: Nick Markanich · Off: Guilherme Augusto
90′Petar Musa scores for FC Dallas on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 0–100–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' FC Dallas · On: Samuel Sarver · Off: Bernard Kamungo
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Lucas Halter · Houston Dynamo
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
93′14 shots for FC Dallas, 9 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 2–96–2 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
96′We said Houston Dynamo at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–1 · 99–1–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Houston Dynamo 2–1 FC Dallas
96′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+6' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Houston Dynamo win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
97′Houston Dynamo ahead on 90′ through Mateusz Bogusz. 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
99′🟨 YELLOW · 90+8' Mateusz Bogusz · Houston Dynamo
100′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 2–97–1
100′⚽ GOAL · 90+10' Houston Dynamo 2–2 FC Dallas
100′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+10' Houston Dynamo win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
100′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+10' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Houston Dynamo win 2%)
101′🟥 RED CARD · 90+11' FC Dallas
FTFULL TIME Houston Dynamo 2–2 FC Dallas
FTHouston Dynamo 2–2 FC Dallas · Houston Dynamo win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Houston Dynamo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Houston Dynamo 43%, draw 27%, FC Dallas 30%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Houston Dynamo v FC DallasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Houston Dynamo win43%

Draw27%

FC Dallas win30%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueBBVA Compass Stadium

RefereeVictor Rivas

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo

4-3-3

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Houston Dynamo

FC Dallas

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Dallas	29	+8	50
5	Houston Dynamo	29	+2	46

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Houston Dynamo

4-3-3

31 J. Bond

11 L. Ennali

5 Lucas Halter

34 A. Resch

21 F. Negri

18 D. Samassékou

6 Artur

16 H. Herrera

19 M. Bogusz

9 L. Foster

20 Guilherme

Coach · Ben Olsen

Substitutes

17 · N. Markanich

14 · D. Holmes

26 · B. Gillingham

30 · A. Bouzat

22 · M. Arana

3 · Antônio Carlos

24 · A. Ibrahim

23 · D. McGuire

4 · M. Saracchi

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1

42 Daniel

18 S. Moore

25 S. Ibeagha

32 N. Norris

14 H. Johansson

17 Ramiro

12 C. Cappis

77 B. Kamungo

8 P. Delgado

7 D. Job

9 P. Musa

Coach · Eric Quill

Substitutes

21 · J. Valiente

5 · L. Abubakar

6 · R. Binyamin

33 · C. Holstad

10 · S. Moreno

28 · Samuel Sarver

40 · J. Sirois

27 · Caleb Swann

3 · O. Urhoghide

Our number · houston dynamo winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make Houston Dynamo a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Houston Dynamo v FC Dallas~~1.51 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 46 v 50~~5 v 3

~~The market · Houston Dynamo win~~41% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Houston Dynamo win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Houston Dynamo win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	27%	27%	0
FC Dallas win	30%	31%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	53%	−2
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	29%	32%	−3
Houston Dynamo or draw	70%	69%	+1
Houston Dynamo clean sheet	29%	–	–
FC Dallas clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.3 7.3 4.9 2.0 1 9.1 12.5 7.3 3.0 2 7.3 8.9 5.5 2.3 3 3.7 4.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Houston Dynamo down, FC Dallas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,981 Major League Soccer matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 437 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Houston Dynamo at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Dallas away: 2.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Houston Dynamo, 1.23 for FC Dallas. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 01:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCD 4–3 HOU · FCD 0–2 HOU · HOU 1–2 FCD · HOU 1–1 FCD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept

HOUSTON DYNAMO

WLDLDD2–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–2 · 3–3

FC DALLAS

WWDWLW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	29	+31	52
2	St. Louis City	29	+16	51
3	FC Dallas	29	+8	50
4	San Jose Earthquakes	29	+10	47
5	Houston Dynamo	29	+2	46
6	Los Angeles FC	30	+15	45
7	Seattle Sounders	29	+2	41
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	30	−9	39
9	Colorado Rapids	29	0	38
10	Portland Timbers	29	−5	33
11	Real Salt Lake	29	−5	33
12	San Diego	29	−3	33
13	Minnesota United FC	29	−9	31
14	Austin	29	−17	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	29	−37	22