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FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders
FC Dallas
Seattle SoundersMajor League Soccer · THU 15 OCT · Toyota Stadium(Texas)
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Dallas win at 43%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: FC Dallas was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
- 1′KICK-OFF FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders
- 28′28′ and it is 0–0: Seattle Sounders have scored. 0–0 · 39–31–30
- 45′SECOND HALF FC Dallas 0–0 Seattle Sounders
- 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was FC Dallas win 34%)
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' FC Dallas win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
- 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–38–27
- 55′We said FC Dallas at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–44–25
- 59′We said FC Dallas at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–23
- 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Seattle Sounders · On: Jordan Morris · Off: Nouhou Tolo
- 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Seattle Sounders · On: Alexander Roldan · Off: Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
- 62′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
- 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders
- 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' FC Dallas win: 43% at kick-off, 78% now
- 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' FC Dallas win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
- 64′63′ and it is 1–0: Kaick da Silva Ferreira on the scoresheet for FC Dallas. 1–0 · 79–18–4
- 66′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Seattle Sounders · On: Jesús Ferreira · Off: Sebastian Gomez
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' FC Dallas win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
- 75′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Dallas · On: Christian Cappis · Off: Joaquín Valiente Cioli
- 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Dallas · On: Patrickson Delgado · Off: Santiago Moreno
- 81′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Patrickson Delgado · FC Dallas
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Dallas · On: Herman Johansson · Off: Bernard Kamungo
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Seattle Sounders · On: Peter Kingston · Off: Snyder Brunell
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Seattle Sounders · On: Caden Clark · Off: stuar hawkins
- 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' FC Dallas win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
- 89′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
- 90′🟨 YELLOW · 98' Daniel · FC Dallas
- FTFULL TIME FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders
- FTFC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders · FC Dallas win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassFC Dallas are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FC Dallas 43%, draw 26%, Seattle Sounders 31%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.
Pre-match prediction
Published 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off
FC Dallas win43%
Seattle Sounders win31%Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 01:30
VenueToyota Stadium(Texas)
RefereeJon Freemon
Match timeline
All events
FC DallasMIN
Seattle SoundersEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
FC Dallas
3-4-2-1
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FC Dallas
Seattle Sounders
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.
Line-ups
FC Dallas
3-4-2-1
42 Daniel
25 S. Ibeagha
3 O. Urhoghide
18 S. Moore
6 R. Binyamin
55 Kaick
17 Ramiro
77 B. Kamungo
21 J. Valiente
10 S. Moreno
9 P. Musa
Coach · Eric Quill
Substitutes
14 · H. Johansson
7 · D. Job
12 · C. Cappis
8 · P. Delgado
5 · L. Abubakar
32 · N. Norris
28 · Samuel Sarver
27 · Caleb Swann
40 · J. Sirois
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1
26 A. Thomas
85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
39 S. Hawkins
25 J. Ragen
5 N. Tolo
7 C. Roldan
37 S. Brunell
90 S. Gomez
11 A. Rusnák
17 P. Arriola
9 D. Joveljić
Coach · B. Schmetzer
Substitutes
24 · S. Frei
27 · J. Ferreira
8 · C. Clark
28 · Y. Gómez
45 · P. Kingston
13 · J. Morris
19 · D. Musovski
16 · A. Roldan
31 · H. Dotson
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
FC Dallas
3-4-2-1
42 Daniel
25 S. Ibeagha
3 O. Urhoghide
18 S. Moore
6 R. Binyamin
55 Kaick
17 Ramiro
77 B. Kamungo
21 J. Valiente
10 S. Moreno
9 P. Musa
Coach · Eric Quill
Substitutes
14 · H. Johansson
7 · D. Job
12 · C. Cappis
8 · P. Delgado
5 · L. Abubakar
32 · N. Norris
28 · Samuel Sarver
27 · Caleb Swann
40 · J. Sirois
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1
26 A. Thomas
85 K. Kossa-Rienzi
39 S. Hawkins
25 J. Ragen
5 N. Tolo
7 C. Roldan
37 S. Brunell
90 S. Gomez
11 A. Rusnák
17 P. Arriola
9 D. Joveljić
Coach · B. Schmetzer
Substitutes
24 · S. Frei
27 · J. Ferreira
8 · C. Clark
28 · Y. Gómez
45 · P. Kingston
13 · J. Morris
19 · D. Musovski
16 · A. Roldan
31 · H. Dotson
We make FC Dallas a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 44%, 43% now. The market has gone from 56% to 48% in the same time.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dallas win | 43% | 48% | −5 |
| Draw | 26% | 24% | +2 |
| Seattle Sounders win | 31% | 28% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53% | 62% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 57% | 63% | −6 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | 82% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | 41% | −10 |
| FC Dallas or draw | 69% | 72% | −3 |
| FC Dallas clean sheet | 28% | – | – |
| Seattle Sounders clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
14 meetings since 2021Form · last six in Major League Soccer
FC DALLAS
SEATTLE SOUNDERS
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 28 | 31 | 51 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 28 | 16 | 50 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 28 | 7 | 47 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 28 | 10 | 46 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 28 | 2 | 45 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 29 | 13 | 42 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 28 | 3 | 41 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 28 | 0 | 37 |
| 9 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 29 | -11 | 36 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 28 | -3 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 28 | -5 | 32 |
| 12 | San Diego | 28 | -3 | 32 |
| 13 | Austin | 28 | -15 | 31 |
| 14 | Minnesota United FC | 28 | -9 | 30 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 28 | -33 | 22 |
The competition's standings.
Vancouver Whitecaps
St. Louis City
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC
Colorado Rapids
Los Angeles Galaxy
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
San Diego
Austin
Minnesota United FC
Sporting Kansas City