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Model 1.1

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FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders

FC Dallas
1–0Full time
Seattle Sounders

Major League Soccer · THU 15 OCT · Toyota Stadium(Texas)

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30
FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders FC DALLAS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said FC Dallas win43%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.491
The market’s Brier score0.412

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 20 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Dallas win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: FC Dallas was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders
  4. 28′28′ and it is 0–0: Seattle Sounders have scored. 0–0 · 39–31–30
  5. 45′SECOND HALF FC Dallas 0–0 Seattle Sounders
  6. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was FC Dallas win 34%)
  7. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' FC Dallas win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  8. 55′We expected about 2.8 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 35–38–27
  9. 55′We said FC Dallas at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 0–0 · 31–44–25
  10. 59′We said FC Dallas at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–23
  11. 59′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Seattle Sounders · On: Jordan Morris · Off: Nouhou Tolo
  12. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Seattle Sounders · On: Alexander Roldan · Off: Kalani Kossa-Rienzi
  13. 62′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–18–4
  14. 62′⚽ GOAL · 62' FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders
  15. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' FC Dallas win: 43% at kick-off, 78% now
  16. 62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' FC Dallas win is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Draw 18%)
  17. 64′63′ and it is 1–0: Kaick da Silva Ferreira on the scoresheet for FC Dallas. 1–0 · 79–18–4
  18. 66′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
  19. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Seattle Sounders · On: Jesús Ferreira · Off: Sebastian Gomez
  20. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' FC Dallas win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  21. 75′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
  22. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Dallas · On: Christian Cappis · Off: Joaquín Valiente Cioli
  23. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Dallas · On: Patrickson Delgado · Off: Santiago Moreno
  24. 81′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  25. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Patrickson Delgado · FC Dallas
  26. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' FC Dallas · On: Herman Johansson · Off: Bernard Kamungo
  27. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Seattle Sounders · On: Peter Kingston · Off: Snyder Brunell
  28. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Seattle Sounders · On: Caden Clark · Off: stuar hawkins
  29. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' FC Dallas win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
  30. 89′We published FC Dallas at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
  31. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 98' Daniel · FC Dallas
  32. FTFULL TIME FC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders
  33. FTFC Dallas 1–0 Seattle Sounders · FC Dallas win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Dallas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Dallas 43%, draw 26%, Seattle Sounders 31%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on FC Dallas v Seattle SoundersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Dallas win43%
Draw26%
Seattle Sounders win31%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 01:30

VenueToyota Stadium(Texas)

RefereeJon Freemon

Line-ups

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1

Seattle Sounders

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Dallas

Seattle Sounders

5Days since last match5
1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
3FC Dallas28747
7Seattle Sounders28341

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1

42 Daniel

25 S. Ibeagha

3 O. Urhoghide

18 S. Moore

6 R. Binyamin

55 Kaick

17 Ramiro

77 B. Kamungo

21 J. Valiente

10 S. Moreno

9 P. Musa

Coach · Eric Quill

Substitutes

14 · H. Johansson

7 · D. Job

12 · C. Cappis

8 · P. Delgado

5 · L. Abubakar

32 · N. Norris

28 · Samuel Sarver

27 · Caleb Swann

40 · J. Sirois

Seattle Sounders

4-2-3-1

26 A. Thomas

85 K. Kossa-Rienzi

39 S. Hawkins

25 J. Ragen

5 N. Tolo

7 C. Roldan

37 S. Brunell

90 S. Gomez

11 A. Rusnák

17 P. Arriola

9 D. Joveljić

Coach · B. Schmetzer

Substitutes

24 · S. Frei

27 · J. Ferreira

8 · C. Clark

28 · Y. Gómez

45 · P. Kingston

13 · J. Morris

19 · D. Musovski

16 · A. Roldan

31 · H. Dotson

Our number · fc dallas winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off
43% The market48%
Us43%
Market48%

We make FC Dallas a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Dallas v Seattle Sounders1.54 – 1.28
Last six in Major League SoccerW4 D1 L1 · W4 D2 L0
Table places · points 47 v 413 v 7
The market · FC Dallas win48% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55%60% 9 OCT 07:2414 OCT 23:55
Our probability · fc dallas win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. The market has gone from 56% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Dallas win43%48%−5
Draw26%24%+2
Seattle Sounders win31%28%+3
Over 2.5 goals53%62%−8
Both teams to score57%63%−6
Over 1.5 goals78%82%−5
Over 3.5 goals31%41%−10
FC Dallas or draw69%72%−3
FC Dallas clean sheet28%––
Seattle Sounders clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%
0123450 6.7 7.0 4.9 2.1 1 8.6 12.3 7.4 3.2 2 7.1 8.9 5.7 2.4 3 3.7 4.6 2.9 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Dallas down, Seattle Sounders across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.93
Over 2.53 of 14
Both scored6 of 14
Last meetingsSEA 2–1 FCD · SEA 1–0 FCD · FCD 0–1 SEA · SEA 3–2 FCD

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

FC DALLAS

WWWDWL4–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3

SEATTLE SOUNDERS

DDWWWW1–1 · 3–3 · 2–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vancouver Whitecaps283151
2St. Louis City281650
3FC Dallas28747
4San Jose Earthquakes281046
5Houston Dynamo28245
6Los Angeles FC291342
7Seattle Sounders28341
8Colorado Rapids28037
9Los Angeles Galaxy29-1136
10Portland Timbers28-333
11Real Salt Lake28-532
12San Diego28-332
13Austin28-1531
14Minnesota United FC28-930
15Sporting Kansas City28-3322

The competition's standings.