FC Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC DallasDrawSan Jose Earthquakes

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 01:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Dallas 51%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Dallas are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Dallas 51%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 26%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on FC Dallas v San Jose EarthquakesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

FC Dallas win51%

Draw23%

San Jose Earthquakes win26%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 01:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueToyota Stadium(Texas)

RefereeRubiel Vazquez

Line-ups

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1

San Jose Earthquakes

3-4-2-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Dallas

San Jose Earthquakes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1

42 Daniel

18 S. Moore

25 S. Ibeagha

3 O. Urhoghide

14 H. Johansson

17 Ramiro

55 Kaick

77 B. Kamungo

21 J. Valiente

7 D. Job

9 P. Musa

Coach · Eric Quill

Substitutes

32 · N. Norris

12 · C. Cappis

8 · P. Delgado

5 · L. Abubakar

6 · R. Binyamin

10 · S. Moreno

40 · J. Sirois

27 · Caleb Swann

11 · A. Julio

San Jose Earthquakes

3-4-2-1

1 A. Gunn

5 D. Munie

4 D. Romney

18 R. Roberts

17 Jack Jasinski

14 R. Vieira

34 Beau Leroux

2 J. Ricketts

7 O. Bouda

11 T. Werner

23 E. Löwen

Coach · B. Arena

Substitutes

25 · M. Floriani

6 · I. Harkes

9 · L. Jovanović

3 · P. Marie

87 · Vítor Costa

20 · N. Fernandez

36 · E. Edwards

16 · J. Skahan

10 · N. Tsakiris

Our number · fc dallas winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

51% The market52%

Us51%

~~Market~~52%

We make FC Dallas a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Dallas v San Jose Earthquakes~~1.99 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 51 v 48~~3 v 4

~~The market · FC Dallas win~~52% · ours 51%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Dallas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Dallas win	51%	52%	−1
Draw	23%	23%	0
San Jose Earthquakes win	26%	24%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	65%	65%	0
Both teams to score	64%	65%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	85%	84%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	43%	45%	−2
FC Dallas or draw	74%	76%	−2
FC Dallas clean sheet	26%	–	–
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.2 4.3 3.3 1 6.4 10.0 6.4 3.0 2 6.9 9.3 6.3 2.9 3 4.5 6.1 4.2 4 2.3 3.1 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Dallas down, San Jose Earthquakes across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,997 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 453 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Dallas at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). San Jose Earthquakes away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.99 goals for FC Dallas, 1.37 for San Jose Earthquakes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~10 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–3 FCD · SAN 2–2 FCD · FCD 2–4 SAN · SAN 3–2 FCD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

FC DALLAS

WDWLWD2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–2

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

WDWDDD1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22