FC Dallas v Columbus Crew prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FC DallasDrawColumbus Crew

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · FC Dallas 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Dallas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Dallas 44%, draw 24%, Columbus Crew 31%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on FC Dallas v Columbus CrewBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

FC Dallas win44%

Draw24%

Columbus Crew win31%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueToyota Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Dallas

Columbus Crew

4Days since last match5

Last match: 25 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 24 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fc dallas winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make FC Dallas a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Dallas v Columbus Crew~~1.75 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 19 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W5 D0 L1

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Dallas win	44%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Columbus Crew win	31%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
FC Dallas or draw	69%	–	–
FC Dallas clean sheet	24%	–	–
Columbus Crew clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 4.9 5.4 4.3 2.1 1 6.6 10.9 7.4 3.6 2 6.3 8.9 6.4 3.1 3 3.7 5.2 3.7 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Dallas down, Columbus Crew across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Dallas at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Columbus Crew away: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for FC Dallas, 1.44 for Columbus Crew. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCD 1–1 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 19 Sept

FC DALLAS

DWLWDW0–0 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–0

COLUMBUS CREW

WWLWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 2–0 · 4–2

FC Dallas v Columbus Crew

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

FC Dallas

Columbus Crew

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 19 Sept