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FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution

FC Cincinnati

2–3Full time

New England Revolution

Major League Soccer · THU 15 OCT · TQL Stadium

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 03:00

FC Cincinnati 2–3 New England Revolution FC CINCINNATI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Cincinnati win~~52%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.862

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.849

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Cincinnati win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Cincinnati was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–21–26
1′KICK-OFF FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution
4′🟨 YELLOW · 5' New England Revolution
5′🟨 YELLOW · 4' Ilay Feingold · New England Revolution
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' FC Cincinnati 1–0 New England Revolution
13′Tom Barlow scores for FC Cincinnati on 13′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–16–11
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' FC Cincinnati win: 52% at kick-off, 74% now
15′We published FC Cincinnati at 52%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–16–11
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' FC Cincinnati 1–1 New England Revolution
20′GOAL DISALLOWED · 20' New England Revolution
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' FC Cincinnati 1–1 New England Revolution
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' FC Cincinnati win: 52% at kick-off, 49% now
22′21′ and it is 1–1: Dor Turgeman on the scoresheet for New England Revolution. 1–1 · 48–25–26
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Tyrell Malacia · FC Cincinnati
42′We said FC Cincinnati at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–2 · 18–25–57
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' FC Cincinnati 1–2 New England Revolution · Dor Turgeman
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' FC Cincinnati win: 52% at kick-off, 18% now
42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' New England Revolution win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was FC Cincinnati win 18%)
44′New England Revolution ahead on 43′ through Joshua Wynder. 1–2. 1–2 · 17–26–57
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Tom Barlow · FC Cincinnati
45′SECOND HALF FC Cincinnati 1–2 New England Revolution
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Cincinnati · On: Pavel Bucha · Off: Obinna Nwobodo
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Cincinnati · On: Kenji Mboma Dem · Off: Tom Barlow
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Cincinnati · On: Samuel Mawuena Gidi · Off: Julian Malatini
51′We said FC Cincinnati at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–26–60
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' FC Cincinnati 1–3 New England Revolution · Joshua Wynder
53′We said FC Cincinnati at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 1–3 · 3–10–87
53′Dor Turgeman scores for New England Revolution on 53′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 3–10–87
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' FC Cincinnati win: 52% at kick-off, 3% now
55′Dor Turgeman scores for New England Revolution on 51′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 3–10–87
56′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 3–9–88
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' FC Cincinnati win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
66′11.0 shots for FC Cincinnati, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–3 · 1–6–92
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' FC Cincinnati 2–3 New England Revolution · Tom Barlow
67′67′ and it is 2–3: Kevin Denkey on the scoresheet for FC Cincinnati. 2–3 · 7–24–69
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' FC Cincinnati win: 52% at kick-off, 7% now
68′We said FC Cincinnati at 52%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–3 · 7–23–70
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' FC Cincinnati · On: Evander · Off: Tyrell Malacia
69′FC Cincinnati have had 14.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 2–3. 2–3 · 6–23–71
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' New England Revolution · On: Luca Daniel·Langoni · Off: Dániel Gazdag
70′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 6–23–71
73′FC Cincinnati have had 16.0 attempts to 6.0 and it is still 2–3. 2–3 · 5–21–74
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' New England Revolution · On: Jackson Yueill · Off: Ilay Feingold
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' FC Cincinnati win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Cincinnati · On: Ayoub Jabbari · Off: Kyle Smith
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' M. Mitrovic · New England Revolution
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Evander · FC Cincinnati
89′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Tah Anunga · FC Cincinnati
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' New England Revolution · On: Tanner·Beason · Off: Peyton Miller
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' New England Revolution · On: Cody Baker · Off: Dor Turgeman
92′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Evander · FC Cincinnati
FTFULL TIME FC Cincinnati 2–3 New England Revolution
FTFC Cincinnati 2–3 New England Revolution · FC Cincinnati win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Cincinnati are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Cincinnati 52%, draw 22%, New England Revolution 26%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on FC Cincinnati v New England RevolutionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

FC Cincinnati win52%

Draw22%

New England Revolution win26%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:30

VenueTQL Stadium

RefereeRubiel Vazquez

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati

3-5-2

New England Revolution

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Cincinnati

New England Revolution

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	New England Revolution	28	6	46
9	FC Cincinnati	27	-7	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati

3-5-2

13 E. Louro

24 K. Smith

6 J. Malatini

15 T. Hadebe

66 E. Echenique

27 B. Anunga

22 G. Valenzuela

5 O. Nwobodo

3 T. Malacia

16 T. Barlow

9 K. Denkey

Coach · Pat Noonan

Substitutes

99 · A. Jabbari

4 · N. Hagglund

11 · S. Gidi

10 · Evander

23 · D. Douděra

18 · R. Celentano

20 · P. Bucha

17 · K. Mboma Dem

29 · Bryan Josías Ramírez León

New England Revolution

4-2-3-1

30 M. Turner

12 I. Feingold

22 E. Kohler

66 J. Wynder

23 W. Sands

8 M. Polster

21 B. Raines

25 P. Miller

10 Carles Gil

16 D. Gazdag

99 D. Turgeman

Coach · M. Mićović

Substitutes

14 · J. Yueill

15 · C. Baker

4 · T. Beason

77 · D. Fagundez

27 · W. Harris

41 · L. Langoni

33 · D. Parisian

65 · J. Siqueira

7 · G. Yow

Our number · fc cincinnati winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

52% The market51%

Us52%

~~Market~~51%

We make FC Cincinnati a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Cincinnati v New England Revolution~~2.06 – 1.42

~~Last six in Major League Soccer~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 46~~9 v 4

~~The market · FC Cincinnati win~~51% · ours 52%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc cincinnati win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 52% now. The market has gone from 46% to 51% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Cincinnati win	52%	51%	+1
Draw	22%	22%	0
New England Revolution win	26%	27%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Both teams to score	66%	71%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	86%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	46%	51%	−6
FC Cincinnati or draw	74%	73%	+1
FC Cincinnati clean sheet	25%	–	–
New England Revolution clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.7 4.0 3.2 1 6.0 9.5 6.4 3.0 2 6.5 9.1 6.4 3.1 3 4.5 6.2 4.4 2.1 4 2.3 3.2 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Cincinnati down, New England Revolution across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,964 Major League Soccer matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 3.27 goals a meeting; 7 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Cincinnati at home: 3.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). New England Revolution away: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for FC Cincinnati, 1.42 for New England Revolution. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 00:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.27

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 11

~~Both scored~~8 of 11

~~Last meetings~~NEW 6–1 FCC · NEW 0–1 FCC · FCC 1–0 NEW · FCC 1–2 NEW

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

FC CINCINNATI

LLDDLW0–4 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1

NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION

LWWWLL1–2 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 4–2 · 0–3 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	28	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	-11	32
12	DC United	27	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	-21	24