FC Cincinnati v DC United prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 02:30

FC Cincinnati 2–1 DC United FC CINCINNATI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said FC Cincinnati win~~60%

~~The market said~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.244

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.240

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Cincinnati win at 60%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Cincinnati 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–21–20
1′KICK-OFF FC Cincinnati v DC United
13′We said FC Cincinnati at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–8
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' FC Cincinnati 1–0 DC United
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' FC Cincinnati win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
15′14′: David Douděra on the scoresheet for FC Cincinnati, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–8
17′We said FC Cincinnati at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–13–8
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 1–0 · 79–14–7
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' FC Cincinnati 1–1 DC United
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' FC Cincinnati win: 60% at kick-off, 51% now
39′DC United level it on 38′ through Kimito Nono. 1–1. 1–1 · 50–29–21
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' FC Cincinnati win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
45′We said FC Cincinnati at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 48–32–20
45′HALF-TIME FC Cincinnati 1–1 DC United
49′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Cincinnati · On: Bryan Ramirez · Off: Tyrell Malacia
49′SECOND HALF FC Cincinnati 1–1 DC United
53′We said FC Cincinnati at 60%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–36–20
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' FC Cincinnati 2–1 DC United
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' FC Cincinnati win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
55′Teenage Hadebe scores for FC Cincinnati on 55′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 81–15–4
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Kimito Nono · DC United
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' DC United · On: Nathan Ordaz · Off: Jackson Hopkins
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Cincinnati · On: Alvas Powell · Off: David Douděra
71′We said FC Cincinnati at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
80′We said FC Cincinnati at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' DC United · On: Matti Peltola · Off: Brandon Servania
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' FC Cincinnati win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' DC United · On: Oscar Avilez · Off: Silvan Hefti
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Cincinnati · On: Samuel Mawuena Gidi · Off: Kevin Denkey
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Cincinnati · On: Ayoub Jabbari · Off: Tom Barlow
87′We said FC Cincinnati at 60% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
89′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Nick Hagglund · FC Cincinnati
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Tai Baribo · DC United
90′2–1 at the end. Our 60% on FC Cincinnati comes in. 2–1 · 100–0–0
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' DC United · On: Sean Nealis · Off: Kye Rowles
91′SUBSTITUTION · 90' FC Cincinnati · On: Kenji Mboma Dem · Off: Evander
FTFULL TIME FC Cincinnati 2–1 DC United
FTFC Cincinnati 2–1 DC United · FC Cincinnati win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Cincinnati are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Cincinnati 60%, draw 20%, DC United 20%. Over 2.5 goals 69%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on FC Cincinnati v DC UnitedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

FC Cincinnati win60%

Draw20%

DC United win20%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 00:00

RoundMatchday 23

VenueTQL Stadium

RefereeTim Ford

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati

3-4-1-2

DC United

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Cincinnati

DC United

3Days since last match4

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FC Cincinnati	29	−10	36
13	DC United	29	−14	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati

3-4-1-2

18 R. Celentano

24 K. Smith

4 N. Hagglund

15 T. Hadebe

23 D. Douděra

20 P. Bucha

5 O. Nwobodo

3 T. Malacia

10 Evander

16 T. Barlow

9 K. Denkey

Coach · Pat Noonan

Substitutes

99 · A. Jabbari

22 · G. Valenzuela

13 · E. Louro

17 · K. Mboma Dem

2 · A. Powell

11 · S. Gidi

27 · B. Anunga

29 · Bryan Josías Ramírez León

88 · A. Chirila

DC United

4-4-2

26 A. Bono

5 S. Hefti

3 L. Bartlett

15 K. Rowles

6 K. Kurokawa

2 K. Nono

21 A. Dozzell

23 B. Servania

7 Peglow

9 T. Baribo

25 J. Hopkins

Coach · R. Weiler

Substitutes

13 · S. Nealis

8 · J. Stroud

27 · Nikola Markovic

4 · M. Peltola

22 · N. Ordaz

24 · J. Farr

40 · K. Castillo

32 · O. Avilez

12 · C. Antley

Our number · fc cincinnati winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 20 Oct 04:05 · locked at kick-off

60% The market60%

Us60%

~~Market~~60%

We make FC Cincinnati a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 60%. We are level with the market. The model expects 2.3–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Cincinnati v DC United~~2.29 – 1.27

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 33~~9 v 13

~~The market · FC Cincinnati win~~60% · ours 60%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Cincinnati win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 60% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Cincinnati win	60%	60%	0
Draw	20%	20%	0
DC United win	20%	20%	0
Over 2.5 goals	69%	73%	−4
Both teams to score	65%	68%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	88%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	47%	54%	−7
FC Cincinnati or draw	80%	80%	0
FC Cincinnati clean sheet	28%	–	–
DC United clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 3.2 2.4 1 6.1 8.8 5.2 2.2 2 7.4 9.3 5.9 2.5 3 5.7 7.1 4.5 4 3.3 4.1 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Cincinnati down, DC United across0–5 goals a side shown (96.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,994 Major League Soccer matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 450 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Cincinnati at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). DC United away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.29 goals for FC Cincinnati, 1.27 for DC United. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 21 Oct 21:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCC 1–2 DCU · DCU 0–1 FCC · DCU 2–3 FCC · FCC 0–0 DCU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

FC CINCINNATI

DDLWLL3–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–2

DC UNITED

DLDLWL0–0 · 1–2 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–4

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
9	FC Cincinnati	29	−10	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	29	−14	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25