FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 00:30

FC Cincinnati 0–2 Columbus Crew FC CINCINNATI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Cincinnati win~~45%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.707

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.661

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Cincinnati win at 45%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Cincinnati 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–23–32
19′SUBSTITUTION · 18' FC Cincinnati · On: Nick Hagglund · Off: Julian Malatini
22′We said FC Cincinnati at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–22–58
22′⚽ GOAL · 22' FC Cincinnati 0–1 Columbus Crew
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' FC Cincinnati win: 45% at kick-off, 21% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Columbus Crew win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was FC Cincinnati win 21%)
23′Gonzalo Tapia scores for Columbus Crew on 22′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–22–58
27′We said FC Cincinnati at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–22–59
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 18–22–59
30′🟨 YELLOW · 28' Samuel Mawuena Gidi · FC Cincinnati
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Teenage Hadebe · FC Cincinnati
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' FC Cincinnati win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
44′We said FC Cincinnati at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–23–62
45′8 shots for FC Cincinnati, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 14–23–63
45′HALF-TIME FC Cincinnati 0–1 Columbus Crew
45′SECOND HALF FC Cincinnati 0–1 Columbus Crew
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Columbus Crew · On: Sekou Tidiany Bangoura · Off: Brais Méndez
48′FC Cincinnati have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 0–1. 0–1 · 13–23–63
53′14 shots for FC Cincinnati, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–65
53′🟨 YELLOW · 45+7' André Gomes · Columbus Crew
54′We said FC Cincinnati at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–8–89
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' FC Cincinnati 0–2 Columbus Crew
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' FC Cincinnati win: 45% at kick-off, 3% now
57′54′: Taha Habroune on the scoresheet for Columbus Crew, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 2–8–90
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Cincinnati · On: Ender Jesús Echenique Peña · Off: David Douděra
60′SUBSTITUTION · 59' FC Cincinnati · On: Kenji Mboma Dem · Off: Tom Barlow
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Columbus Crew · On: Jamal Thiare · Off: Santiago Rodriguez
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Columbus Crew · On: Dylan Chambost · Off: Taha Habroune
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Columbus Crew · On: Eric Bailly · Off: Steven Moreira
74′16 shots for FC Cincinnati, 2 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–3–96
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Columbus Crew · On: Lautaro Giaccone · Off: Gonzalo Tapia
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Cincinnati · On: Gerardo Valenzuela · Off: Nick Hagglund
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Cincinnati · On: Ayoub Jabbari · Off: Pavel Bucha
90′0–2 at the end. Our 45% on FC Cincinnati misses, and the record keeps it. 0–2 · 0–0–100
92′20 shots for FC Cincinnati, 3 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Dylan Chambost · Columbus Crew
FTFULL TIME FC Cincinnati 0–2 Columbus Crew
FTFC Cincinnati 0–2 Columbus Crew · FC Cincinnati win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Cincinnati are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Cincinnati 45%, draw 23%, Columbus Crew 33%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on FC Cincinnati v Columbus CrewBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

FC Cincinnati win45%

Draw23%

Columbus Crew win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 22:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueTQL Stadium

RefereeDrew Fischer

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati

3-4-1-2

Columbus Crew

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Cincinnati

Columbus Crew

4Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	FC Cincinnati	28	−8	36
13	Columbus Crew	29	−3	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Cincinnati

3-4-1-2

18 R. Celentano

11 S. Gidi

6 J. Malatini

15 T. Hadebe

23 D. Douděra

5 O. Nwobodo

20 P. Bucha

3 T. Malacia

10 Evander

16 T. Barlow

9 K. Denkey

Coach · Pat Noonan

Substitutes

22 · G. Valenzuela

27 · B. Anunga

66 · E. Echenique

4 · N. Hagglund

99 · A. Jabbari

13 · E. Louro

17 · K. Mboma Dem

29 · Bryan Josías Ramírez León

24 · K. Smith

Columbus Crew

3-4-3

28 P. Schulte

31 S. Moreira

25 S. Zawadzki

18 M. Amundsen

2 M. Herrera

20 André Gomes

16 T. Habroune

11 B. Lennon

10 Brais Méndez

33 G. Tapia

8 S. Rodríguez

Coach · L. Courtois

Substitutes

17 · S. Bangoura

3 · E. Bailly

7 · D. Chambost

26 · L. Giaccone

1 · N. Hagen

77 · Josef Martínez

23 · M. Farsi

14 · A. Sejdić

19 · J. Thiaré

Our number · fc cincinnati winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 15 Oct 05:01 · locked at kick-off

45% The market42%

Us45%

~~Market~~42%

We make FC Cincinnati a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.9–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Cincinnati v Columbus Crew~~1.92 – 1.62

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 32~~9 v 13

~~The market · FC Cincinnati win~~42% · ours 45%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Cincinnati win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. The market has gone from 49% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Cincinnati win	45%	42%	+3
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Columbus Crew win	33%	34%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	71%	−3
Both teams to score	68%	71%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	87%	87%	0
Over 3.5 goals	47%	52%	−5
FC Cincinnati or draw	67%	66%	+1
FC Cincinnati clean sheet	20%	–	–
Columbus Crew clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.5%

0123450 3.6 4.3 3.9 2.1 1 5.2 9.5 7.2 3.9 2 5.4 8.5 6.8 3.7 3 3.4 5.4 4.4 2.4 4 2.6 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Cincinnati down, Columbus Crew across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,986 Major League Soccer matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 442 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Cincinnati at home: 2.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Columbus Crew away: 1.67 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.92 goals for FC Cincinnati, 1.62 for Columbus Crew. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 21:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 2–1 FCC · FCC 2–1 COL · COL 4–0 FCC · FCC 1–0 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept

FC CINCINNATI

LDDLWL0–5 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–3

COLUMBUS CREW

LLWWLW1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	−8	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	New York City FC	30	+2	34
12	DC United	29	−14	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	−3	32
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25