DC United v FC Cincinnati prediction · Major League Soccer

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with FC Cincinnati just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: DC United 37%, draw 24%, FC Cincinnati 39%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 67%.

The AI’s read on DC United v FC CincinnatiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

DC United win37%

Draw24%

FC Cincinnati win39%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueAudi Field

RefereeJon Freemon

Line-ups

DC United

4-4-2

FC Cincinnati

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

DC United

FC Cincinnati

3Days since last match3

Last match: 22 Oct · Major League Soccer

4Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
13	DC United	30	−15	33

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

DC United

4-4-2

1 S. Johnson

5 S. Hefti

3 L. Bartlett

15 K. Rowles

6 K. Kurokawa

2 K. Nono

23 B. Servania

21 A. Dozzell

7 Peglow

25 J. Hopkins

9 T. Baribo

Coach · R. Weiler

Substitutes

12 · C. Antley

32 · O. Avilez

40 · K. Castillo

27 · Nikola Markovic

13 · S. Nealis

22 · N. Ordaz

4 · M. Peltola

8 · J. Stroud

26 · A. Bono

FC Cincinnati

3-5-2

18 R. Celentano

24 K. Smith

4 N. Hagglund

15 T. Hadebe

23 D. Douděra

20 P. Bucha

10 Evander

5 O. Nwobodo

29 Bryan Josías Ramírez León

16 T. Barlow

9 K. Denkey

Coach · Pat Noonan

Substitutes

11 · S. Gidi

99 · A. Jabbari

13 · E. Louro

17 · K. Mboma Dem

2 · A. Powell

88 · A. Chirila

22 · G. Valenzuela

27 · B. Anunga

70 · J. Martínez

Our number · fc cincinnati winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make FC Cincinnati a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · DC United v FC Cincinnati~~1.67 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 33 v 39~~13 v 8

~~The market · FC Cincinnati win~~42% · ours 39%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Cincinnati win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
DC United win	37%	34%	+3
Draw	24%	24%	0
FC Cincinnati win	39%	42%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	65%	71%	−6
Both teams to score	67%	71%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	85%	88%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	44%	51%	−7
DC United or draw	61%	58%	+3
DC United clean sheet	18%	–	–
FC Cincinnati clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.1 5.3 5.0 2.9 1 5.1 10.2 8.2 4.7 2.1 2 4.7 8.0 6.8 3.9 3 2.6 4.4 3.8 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+DC United down, FC Cincinnati across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

DC United at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Cincinnati away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for DC United, 1.72 for FC Cincinnati. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCC 2–1 DCU · FCC 1–2 DCU · DCU 0–1 FCC · DCU 2–3 FCC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 19 Sept

DC UNITED

LDLWLL1–2 · 3–3 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 1–4 · 1–2

FC CINCINNATI

DLWLLW2–2 · 1–3 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25