Columbus Crew v Toronto FC prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 23:01

Columbus Crew 4–2 Toronto FC COLUMBUS CREW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Columbus Crew win~~58%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.261

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.273

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Columbus Crew win at 58%.
1′KICK-OFF Columbus Crew v Toronto FC
2′Much as we predicted: Columbus Crew was 58% before kick-off and our model makes it 58% now. 0–0 · 58–23–19
16′We published Columbus Crew at 58%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–13–7
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Columbus Crew 1–0 Toronto FC
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Columbus Crew win: 58% at kick-off, 80% now
17′Columbus Crew score on 16′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 80–13–6
20′We published Columbus Crew at 58%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–0 · 98–1–0
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Columbus Crew 2–0 Toronto FC
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Columbus Crew win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Columbus Crew 3–0 Toronto FC
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Columbus Crew win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
23′GOAL DISALLOWED · 23' Columbus Crew
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Columbus Crew win: 58% at kick-off, 94% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Sekou Tidiany Bangoura · Columbus Crew
45′HALF-TIME Columbus Crew 2–0 Toronto FC
45′SECOND HALF Columbus Crew 2–0 Toronto FC
48′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 2–0 · 96–3–1
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Columbus Crew 3–0 Toronto FC
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Columbus Crew win: 58% at kick-off, 99% now
49′Malte Amundsen scores for Columbus Crew on 48′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
53′We published Columbus Crew at 58%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Columbus Crew · On: Brooks Lennon · Off: Santiago Rodriguez
59′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Columbus Crew · On: Marcelo Andrés Herrera · Off: Steven Moreira
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Columbus Crew 4–0 Toronto FC
61′59′: Brooks Lennon on the scoresheet for Columbus Crew, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Toronto FC · On: Dániel Sallói · Off: Lewis Morgan
69′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Columbus Crew 4–1 Toronto FC
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Columbus Crew · On: kevin gbamble · Off: Taha Habroune
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Columbus Crew · On: Lautaro Giaccone · Off: Mohamed Farsi
70′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Columbus Crew
71′Toronto FC pull one back on 69′ through Dániel Sallói. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
72′A red card for Columbus Crew on 70′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 4–1 · 100–0–0
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Toronto FC · On: Emilio Aristizábal · Off: Benjamin Kuscevic
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Columbus Crew · On: Tarun Karumanchi · Off: Gonzalo Tapia
81′6 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 4–2 · 100–0–0
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Columbus Crew 4–2 Toronto FC
82′Josh Sargent scores for Toronto FC on 81′ — 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
84′19 shots for Toronto FC, 10 the other way, and they still trail 4–2. 4–2 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 4–2. We called Columbus Crew at 58% — that one lands. 4–2 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Columbus Crew 4–2 Toronto FC
FTColumbus Crew 4–2 Toronto FC · Columbus Crew win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Columbus Crew are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Columbus Crew 58%, draw 22%, Toronto FC 19%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Columbus Crew v Toronto FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Columbus Crew win58%

Draw22%

Toronto FC win19%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 20:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueScottsMiracle-Gro Field

RefereeChristopher Penso

Line-ups

Columbus Crew

4-4-2

Toronto FC

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Columbus Crew

Toronto FC

2Days since last match7

Last match: 22 Oct · US Open Cup

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Columbus Crew

4-4-2

28 P. Schulte

31 S. Moreira

25 S. Zawadzki

18 M. Amundsen

21 A. Zaroury

23 M. Farsi

17 S. Bangoura

7 D. Chambost

8 S. Rodríguez

16 T. Habroune

33 G. Tapia

Coach · L. Courtois

Substitutes

77 · Josef Martínez

11 · B. Lennon

50 · T. Karumanchi

2 · M. Herrera

19 · J. Thiaré

12 · Cesar Ruvalcaba

1 · N. Hagen

26 · L. Giaccone

39 · K. Gbamble

Toronto FC

4-3-3

1 L. Gavran

22 R. Laryea

13 B. Kuscevic

12 Z. Monlouis

3 Matheus Pereira

6 N. Dorsch

21 J. Osorio

10 D. Mihailović

7 T. Corbeanu

9 J. Sargent

90 L. Morgan

Coach · R. Fraser

Substitutes

17 · Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga

96 · R. Chukwu

71 · M. Cimermancic

14 · Alonso Coello

44 · R. Edwards

11 · D. Etienne

23 · W. Yarbrough

38 · J. Gilman

20 · D. Sallói

Our number · columbus crew winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 03:17 · locked at kick-off

58% The market57%

Us58%

~~Market~~57%

We make Columbus Crew a 58% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Columbus Crew v Toronto FC~~2.00 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 35 v 36~~11 v 10

~~The market · Columbus Crew win~~57% · ours 58%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Columbus Crew win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 58% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Columbus Crew win	58%	57%	+1
Draw	22%	22%	0
Toronto FC win	19%	21%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	59%	65%	−6
Both teams to score	57%	63%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	81%	84%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	37%	44%	−7
Columbus Crew or draw	81%	79%	+2
Columbus Crew clean sheet	35%	–	–
Toronto FC clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.5%

0123450 5.4 4.5 2.7 1 8.8 10.5 5.2 2 9.3 9.8 5.2 3 6.2 6.5 3.4 4 3.1 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Columbus Crew down, Toronto FC across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Columbus Crew at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Toronto FC away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.00 goals for Columbus Crew, 1.06 for Toronto FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TOR 2–1 COL · COL 1–1 TOR · TOR 1–1 COL · TOR 0–2 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

COLUMBUS CREW

LWWLWW0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 2–0

TORONTO FC

LLLWDW0–3 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25