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Columbus Crew v Charlotte

Columbus Crew

3–1Full time

Charlotte

Major League Soccer · THU 15 OCT · ScottsMiracle-Gro Field

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 03:00

Columbus Crew 3–1 Charlotte COLUMBUS CREW WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Columbus Crew win~~47%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.418

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.407

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Columbus Crew win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Columbus Crew 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Columbus Crew v Charlotte
16′Charlotte find the net on 16′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–23–55
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Columbus Crew 0–1 Charlotte · 2377065
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Columbus Crew win: 47% at kick-off, 22% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Charlotte win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Columbus Crew win 22%)
19′Charlotte ahead on 17′ through Idan Toklomati Jorno. 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
21′We said Columbus Crew at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–24–56
25′We said Columbus Crew at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
25′8.0 shots for Columbus Crew, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–1 · 19–24–56
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Columbus Crew 1–1 Charlotte
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Columbus Crew win: 47% at kick-off, 43% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Columbus Crew win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Charlotte win 27%)
28′Brais Méndez scores for Columbus Crew on 28′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 43–30–27
34′12.0 shots for Columbus Crew, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 42–32–27
40′16.0 shots for Columbus Crew, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 40–34–26
45′SECOND HALF Columbus Crew 1–1 Charlotte
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Charlotte · On: Nathan Byrne · Off: Will Cleary
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Charlotte · On: Luca De La Torre · Off: Brandt Bronico
46′20.0 shots for Columbus Crew, 4.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 38–37–25
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Charlotte · On: Rodolfo Aloko · Off: Liel Abada
48′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 37–38–25
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Columbus Crew win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
50′24.0 shots for Columbus Crew, 5.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 36–39–24
53′We said Columbus Crew at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 35–41–24
53′THE CALL SWINGS · 53' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Columbus Crew win 35%)
55′We said Columbus Crew at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–42–23
59′28.0 shots for Columbus Crew, 6.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 32–45–22
62′We said Columbus Crew at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 2–1 · 79–17–4
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Columbus Crew 2–1 Charlotte · Brais Méndez
62′GOAL DISALLOWED · 62' Columbus Crew
63′GOAL DISALLOWED · 63' Columbus Crew
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Columbus Crew win: 47% at kick-off, 79% now
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Columbus Crew win is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Draw 17%)
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Columbus Crew 2–1 Charlotte · Anass Zaroury
64′63′ and it is 3–1: Anass Zaroury on the scoresheet for Columbus Crew. 3–1 · 97–3–0
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Columbus Crew 3–1 Charlotte · Anass Zaroury
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Columbus Crew win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
65′Columbus Crew ahead on 65′ through Taha Habroune. 3–1. 3–1 · 97–3–0
66′We said Columbus Crew at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 3–1 · 97–3–0
67′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 97–3–0
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Columbus Crew · On: Brooks Lennon · Off: Anass Zaroury
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Malte Amundsen · Columbus Crew
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Patrick Schulte · Columbus Crew
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Columbus Crew · On: Sekou Tidiany Bangoura · Off: Dylan Chambost
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Columbus Crew · On: Jamal Thiare · Off: Josef Martínez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Charlotte · On: Tyger Smalls · Off: Allan Saint-Maximin
84′We said Columbus Crew at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 3–1 · 100–0–0
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Charlotte · On: Djibril Diani · Off: Pep Biel
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Columbus Crew · On: André Gomes · Off: Taha Habroune Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Columbus Crew · On: André Gomes · Off: Santiago Rodriguez
87′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Columbus Crew · On: Eric Bailly · Off: Malte Amundsen
FTFULL TIME Columbus Crew 3–1 Charlotte
FTColumbus Crew 3–1 Charlotte · Columbus Crew win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Columbus Crew are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Columbus Crew 47%, draw 25%, Charlotte 28%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Columbus Crew v CharlotteBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

Columbus Crew win47%

Draw25%

Charlotte win28%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:30

VenueScottsMiracle-Gro Field

RefereeTim Ford

Line-ups

Columbus Crew

3-4-3

Charlotte

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Columbus Crew

Charlotte

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Charlotte	28	10	46
13	Columbus Crew	28	-5	29

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Columbus Crew

3-4-3

28 P. Schulte

31 S. Moreira

25 S. Zawadzki

18 M. Amundsen

23 M. Farsi

7 D. Chambost

16 T. Habroune

21 A. Zaroury

10 Brais Méndez

77 Josef Martínez

8 S. Rodríguez

Coach · L. Courtois

Substitutes

11 · B. Lennon

20 · André Gomes

2 · M. Herrera

33 · G. Tapia

1 · N. Hagen

3 · E. Bailly

17 · S. Bangoura

26 · L. Giaccone

19 · J. Thiaré

Charlotte

4-2-3-1

1 K. Kahlina

35 Will Cleary

22 H. Kessler

3 T. Ream

15 H. Toffolo

8 A. Westwood

13 B. Bronico

11 L. Abada

16 Pep Biel

10 A. Saint-Maximin

9 I. Toklomati Giorno

Coach · D. Smith

Substitutes

17 · L. de la Torre

28 · D. Diani

21 · T. Miller

4 · A. Privett

25 · Tyger Smalls

23 · D. Schnegg

14 · N. Byrne

44 · M. Agyemang

37 · R. Aloko

Our number · columbus crew winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

47% The market48%

Us47%

~~Market~~48%

We make Columbus Crew a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Columbus Crew v Charlotte~~1.72 – 1.28

~~Last six in Major League Soccer~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 29 v 46~~13 v 5

~~The market · Columbus Crew win~~48% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · columbus crew win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 47% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Columbus Crew win	47%	48%	−1
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Charlotte win	28%	28%	0
Over 2.5 goals	58%	69%	−12
Both teams to score	59%	69%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	80%	86%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	35%	50%	−14
Columbus Crew or draw	72%	72%	0
Columbus Crew clean sheet	28%	–	–
Charlotte clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.7 5.8 4.1 1 8.0 11.4 6.9 3.0 2 7.4 9.3 5.9 2.5 3 4.2 5.3 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Columbus Crew down, Charlotte across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,964 Major League Soccer matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 3.56 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Columbus Crew at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Charlotte away: 2.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Columbus Crew, 1.28 for Charlotte. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 00:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.56

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CHA 3–1 COL · CHA 3–2 COL · COL 4–2 CHA · COL 1–1 CHA

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

COLUMBUS CREW

WLLWWL3–0 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–3

CHARLOTTE

DWDWLW0–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	28	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	-11	32
12	DC United	27	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	-21	24