Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Colorado RapidsDrawVancouver Whitecaps

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 02:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Vancouver Whitecaps 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vancouver Whitecaps are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colorado Rapids 30%, draw 26%, Vancouver Whitecaps 44%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Colorado Rapids v Vancouver WhitecapsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Colorado Rapids win30%

Draw26%

Vancouver Whitecaps win44%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 02:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueDick's Sporting Goods Park

RefereeJair Marrufo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colorado Rapids

Vancouver Whitecaps

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · vancouver whitecaps winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Vancouver Whitecaps a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Colorado Rapids v Vancouver Whitecaps~~1.28 – 1.61

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D4 L1 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 39 v 55~~9 v 1

~~The market · Vancouver Whitecaps win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Vancouver Whitecaps win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colorado Rapids win	30%	30%	0
Draw	26%	26%	0
Vancouver Whitecaps win	44%	43%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	55%	54%	+1
Both teams to score	58%	58%	0
Over 1.5 goals	79%	77%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	33%	33%	0
Colorado Rapids or draw	56%	57%	−1
Colorado Rapids clean sheet	20%	–	–
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.4 8.3 7.2 3.9 1 6.5 12.0 9.1 4.9 2 4.6 7.3 5.8 3.1 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colorado Rapids down, Vancouver Whitecaps across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,997 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 453 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.60 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colorado Rapids at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Vancouver Whitecaps away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.28 goals for Colorado Rapids, 1.61 for Vancouver Whitecaps. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.60

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VAN 3–1 COL · COL 3–0 VAN · VAN 2–0 COL · VAN 2–1 COL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

COLORADO RAPIDS

WDLDDD1–0 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–0

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS

WDLDDW3–0 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22