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Colorado Rapids v San Jose Earthquakes

Colorado Rapids

1–1Full time

San Jose Earthquakes

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 05:00

Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes COLORADO RAPIDS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Colorado Rapids win~~45%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 38 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Colorado Rapids win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Colorado Rapids 45% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–23–31
12′We said Colorado Rapids at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–22–56
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Colorado Rapids win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was San Jose Earthquakes win 31%)
12′⚽ GOAL · 13' Colorado Rapids 0–1 San Jose Earthquakes · Preston Judd
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' San Jose Earthquakes win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Colorado Rapids win 22%)
13′13′ and it is 0–1: Preston Judd on the scoresheet for San Jose Earthquakes. 0–1 · 22–22–56
14′13′ and it is 0–0: Preston Judd on the scoresheet for San Jose Earthquakes. 0–0 · 44–26–31
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Colorado Rapids win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was San Jose Earthquakes win 31%)
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' San Jose Earthquakes win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Colorado Rapids win 22%)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' Colorado Rapids win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was San Jose Earthquakes win 31%)
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
15′THE CALL SWINGS · 15' San Jose Earthquakes win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Colorado Rapids win 22%)
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Colorado Rapids win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was San Jose Earthquakes win 31%)
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' San Jose Earthquakes win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Colorado Rapids win 22%)
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 44% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' Colorado Rapids win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was San Jose Earthquakes win 31%)
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Colorado Rapids win: 45% at kick-off, 22% now
17′THE CALL SWINGS · 17' San Jose Earthquakes win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Colorado Rapids win 22%)
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Colorado Rapids 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes
26′⚽ GOAL · 27' Colorado Rapids 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes · Donavan Phillip
43′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Jack Jasinski · San Jose Earthquakes
45′SECOND HALF Colorado Rapids 1–0 San Jose Earthquakes
49′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Loïc Williams Ntambue Kayumba Gironés · Colorado Rapids
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes · Donavan Phillip
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes · Dave Romney
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Ousseni Bouda · Off: Timo Werner
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Ousseni Bouda · Off: Timo Werner
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Colorado Rapids · On: Georgi Minoungou · Off: Donavan Phillip
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Nick Fernandez · Off: Paul Marie
73′SUBSTITUTION · 74' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Max Floriani · Off: Jack Jasinski
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Max Floriani · Off: Jack Jasinski
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Colorado Rapids · On: Hamzat Ojediran · Off: Georgi Minoungou
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Colorado Rapids · On: Darren Yapi · Off: Sayd Abu Farhi Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Colorado Rapids · On: Ibrahim Sadiq · Off: Joshua Atencio
94′SUBSTITUTION · 94' San Jose Earthquakes · On: Ian Harkes · Off: Beau Leroux
FTFULL TIME Colorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes
FTColorado Rapids 1–1 San Jose Earthquakes · Colorado Rapids win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Colorado Rapids win45%

Draw24%

San Jose Earthquakes win31%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 02:30

Venue · Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Referee · Filip Dujic

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Colorado Rapids

4-3-3

41 N. Hansen

4 R. Cannon

6 R. Holding

5 L. Williams

29 M. Navarro

12 J. Atencio

7 M. Whittaker

13 W. Frederick

32 D. Phillip

9 S. Abu Farkhi

10 P. Aaronson

Coach · Matt Wells

Substitutes

31 · A. Beaudry

33 · K. Thompson

99 · J. Travis

2 · K. Rosenberry

24 · N. Cobb

8 · H. Ojediran

77 · D. Yapi

93 · G. Minoungou

11 · I. Sadiq

San Jose Earthquakes

5-3-2

36 E. Edwards

3 P. Marie

17 J. Jasinski

5 D. Munie

4 D. Romney

87 Vitor Costa

23 E. Lowen

14 R. Vieira

34 B. Leroux

19 P. Judd

11 T. Werner

Coach · Bruce Arena

Substitutes

31 · F. Montali

2 · J. Ricketts

25 · M. Floriani

6 · I. Harkes

21 · N. Buck

20 · N. Fernandez

7 · O. Bouda

9 · L. Jovanovic

28 · B. Kikanovic

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Colorado Rapids

4-3-3

41 N. Hansen

4 R. Cannon

6 R. Holding

5 L. Williams

29 M. Navarro

12 J. Atencio

7 M. Whittaker

13 W. Frederick

32 D. Phillip

9 S. Abu Farkhi

10 P. Aaronson

Coach · Matt Wells

Substitutes

31 · A. Beaudry

33 · K. Thompson

99 · J. Travis

2 · K. Rosenberry

24 · N. Cobb

8 · H. Ojediran

77 · D. Yapi

93 · G. Minoungou

11 · I. Sadiq

San Jose Earthquakes

5-3-2

36 E. Edwards

3 P. Marie

17 J. Jasinski

5 D. Munie

4 D. Romney

87 Vitor Costa

23 E. Lowen

14 R. Vieira

34 B. Leroux

19 P. Judd

11 T. Werner

Coach · Bruce Arena

Substitutes

31 · F. Montali

2 · J. Ricketts

25 · M. Floriani

6 · I. Harkes

21 · N. Buck

20 · N. Fernandez

7 · O. Bouda

9 · L. Jovanovic

28 · B. Kikanovic

Our number · colorado rapids winPublished 11 Oct 02:31

45% The market49%

Us45%

~~Market~~49%

We make Colorado Rapids a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · colorado rapids win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Colorado Rapids win	45%	49%	−4
Draw	24%	25%	−1
San Jose Earthquakes win	31%	26%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	62%	59%	+2
Both teams to score	63%	62%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	83%	81%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	40%	38%	+1
Colorado Rapids or draw	69%	74%	−5
Colorado Rapids clean sheet	24%	–	–
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.8%

0123450 4.7 5.4 4.2 2.0 1 6.7 10.8 7.3 3.5 2 6.4 9.0 6.4 3.1 3 3.7 5.3 3.8 4 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Colorado Rapids down, San Jose Earthquakes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 2.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Colorado Rapids at home: 1.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Jose Earthquakes away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Colorado Rapids, 1.43 for San Jose Earthquakes. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 02:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–2 SAN · SAN 1–2 COL · COL 2–3 SAN · SAN 0–3 COL

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

COLORADO RAPIDS

WLDWDL1–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–3

SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES

DDWWDW0–0 · 1–1 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21