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Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC

Colorado Rapids
2–2Full time
Minnesota United FC

Major League Soccer · THU 15 OCT · Dick's Sporting Goods Park

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30
Colorado Rapids 2–2 Minnesota United FC COLORADO RAPIDS WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Colorado Rapids win43%
The market said52%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.847
The market’s Brier score0.892

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Colorado Rapids win at 43%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Colorado Rapids was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–32
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC
  4. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 12' Colorado Rapids
  5. 11′🟨 YELLOW · 11' Darren Yapi · Colorado Rapids
  6. 21′7.0 shots for Colorado Rapids, 1.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 0–0 · 41–28–31
  7. 32′Colorado Rapids have had 8.0 attempts to 1.0 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 39–31–30
  8. 45′We published Colorado Rapids at 43%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–8
  9. 45′Colorado Rapids ahead on 45′ through Darren Yapi. 1–0. 1–0 · 72–20–8
  10. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Colorado Rapids 1–0 Minnesota United FC
  11. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Colorado Rapids win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Colorado Rapids 1–0 Minnesota United FC
  13. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Colorado Rapids win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
  14. 51′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–1 · 34–40–27
  15. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Colorado Rapids 1–1 Minnesota United FC
  16. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Colorado Rapids win: 43% at kick-off, 34% now
  17. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Colorado Rapids win 34%)
  18. 52′Kelvin Yeboah scores for Minnesota United FC on 52′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 33–41–26
  19. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Colorado Rapids win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
  20. 57′We said Colorado Rapids at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 31–44–25
  21. 60′Colorado Rapids have had 12.0 attempts to 5.0 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 30–46–24
  22. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Colorado Rapids · On: Joshua Atencio · Off: Paxten Aaronson
  23. 60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Colorado Rapids · On: Sayed Abu Farkhi · Off: Keegan Rosenberry
  24. 62′We said Colorado Rapids at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–48–23
  25. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Minnesota United FC · On: Mauricio González Carabalí · Off: Marcus Caldeira
  26. 66′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Sayed Abu Farkhi · Colorado Rapids
  27. 68′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Colorado Rapids
  28. 69′A red card for Colorado Rapids on 69′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 24–56–20
  29. 69′🟥 RED CARD · 69' Sayed Abu Farkhi · Colorado Rapids
  30. 70′We said Colorado Rapids at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–57–19
  31. 70′🟥 RED CARD · 68' Sayed Abu Farkhi · Colorado Rapids
  32. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Colorado Rapids · On: Georgi Minoungou · Off: Darren Yapi
  33. 71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Colorado Rapids win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
  34. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Colorado Rapids · On: Ibrahim Sadiq · Off: Morgan Whittaker
  35. 72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Colorado Rapids · On: Kosi Thompson · Off: Donavan Phillip
  36. 73′⚽ GOAL · 73' Colorado Rapids 2–1 Minnesota United FC · Darren Yapi
  37. 74′We published Colorado Rapids at 43%. Our model now makes it 83%. 2–1 · 83–15–2
  38. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Colorado Rapids win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
  39. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Colorado Rapids win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  40. 75′74′ and it is 2–1: Georgi Minoungou on the scoresheet for Colorado Rapids. 2–1 · 84–14–2
  41. 76′We published Colorado Rapids at 43%. Our model now makes it 85%. 2–1 · 85–14–2
  42. 79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Miguel Navarro · Colorado Rapids
  43. 82′We said Colorado Rapids at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 12%. 2–2 · 12–78–10
  44. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Minnesota United FC · On: Nectarios Triantis · Off: Wil Trapp
  45. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Minnesota United FC · On: Aziel Jackson · Off: Tomás Chancalay
  46. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Colorado Rapids 2–2 Minnesota United FC · Kelvin Yeboah
  47. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Minnesota United FC · On: Joaquín Pereyra · Off: Bongokuhle Hlongwane
  48. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Colorado Rapids win: 43% at kick-off, 12% now
  49. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 78% (was Colorado Rapids win 12%)
  50. 85′Minnesota United FC level it on 83′ through Loïc Williams Ntambue Kayumba Gironés. 2–2. 2–2 · 9–84–7
  51. 87′We said Colorado Rapids at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–2 · 7–87–6
  52. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Owen Gene · Minnesota United FC
  53. 89′4 goals already, more than the 3.0 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 6–89–5
  54. 90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Minnesota United FC
  55. 91′We said Colorado Rapids at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 4–92–4
  56. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 93' Colorado Rapids win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
  57. 95′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Minnesota United FC · On: Nicolás Romero · Off: Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño
  58. 96′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Minnesota United FC · On: Nicolás Romero · Off: Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño
  59. FTFULL TIME Colorado Rapids 2–2 Minnesota United FC
  60. FTColorado Rapids 2–2 Minnesota United FC · Colorado Rapids win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Colorado Rapids are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Colorado Rapids 43%, draw 25%, Minnesota United FC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 02:00 · locked at kick-off

Colorado Rapids win43%
Draw25%
Minnesota United FC win32%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 02:30

VenueDick's Sporting Goods Park

RefereeVictor Rivas

Line-ups

Colorado Rapids

4-3-3

Minnesota United FC

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Colorado Rapids

Minnesota United FC

4Days since last match4
1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Colorado Rapids28037
14Minnesota United FC28-930

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Colorado Rapids

4-3-3

41 N. Defreitas

2 K. Rosenberry

6 R. Holding

5 Loïc Williams

29 M. Navarro

13 W. Frederick II

8 H. Ojediran

10 P. Aaronson

7 M. Whittaker

32 D. Phillip

77 D. Yapi

Coach · Matt Wells

Substitutes

12 · J. Atencio

31 · A. Beaudry

24 · N. Cobb

16 · A. Harris

93 · G. Minoungou

11 · I. Sadiq

33 · K. Thompson

99 · J. Travis

9 · S. Abu

Minnesota United FC

4-4-2

12 D. Callender

52 Cherrion Valerius

28 J. Díaz

15 M. Boxall

23 M. Duggan

21 B. Hlongwane

30 O. Gene

20 W. Trapp

8 T. Chancalay

9 K. Yeboah

22 Marcus Caldeira

Coach · C. Knowles

Substitutes

25 · N. Triantis

27 · D. Taylor

5 · N. Romero

94 · Kayne Rizvanovich

26 · J. Pereyra

11 · M. Malone

16 · A. Jackson

18 · M. Gonzalez

3 · K. Duncan

Our number · colorado rapids winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 02:00 · locked at kick-off
43% The market52%
Us43%
Market52%

We make Colorado Rapids a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Colorado Rapids v Minnesota United FC1.63 – 1.37
Last six in Major League SoccerW1 D3 L2 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 37 v 308 v 14
The market · Colorado Rapids win52% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50%55% 9 OCT 07:2414 OCT 23:55
Our probability · colorado rapids win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 46% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Colorado Rapids win43%52%−9
Draw25%25%0
Minnesota United FC win32%23%+8
Over 2.5 goals58%58%0
Both teams to score60%59%+1
Over 1.5 goals81%79%+1
Over 3.5 goals35%37%−2
Colorado Rapids or draw68%77%−8
Colorado Rapids clean sheet26%––
Minnesota United FC clean sheet20%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%
0123450 5.7 6.3 4.7 2.2 1 7.5 11.6 7.5 3.5 2 6.6 8.9 6.1 2.8 3 3.6 4.9 3.3 4 2.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Colorado Rapids down, Minnesota United FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.58
Over 2.59 of 12
Both scored8 of 12
Last meetingsMIN 0–1 COL · COL 1–1 MIN · MIN 1–2 COL · MIN 3–0 COL

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

COLORADO RAPIDS

LDWDLD0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–3 · 2–3 · 1–1

MINNESOTA UNITED FC

LLLLLD4–5 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vancouver Whitecaps283151
2St. Louis City281650
3FC Dallas28747
4San Jose Earthquakes281046
5Houston Dynamo28245
6Los Angeles FC291342
7Seattle Sounders28341
8Colorado Rapids28037
9Los Angeles Galaxy29-1136
10Portland Timbers28-333
11Real Salt Lake28-532
12San Diego28-332
13Austin28-1531
14Minnesota United FC28-930
15Sporting Kansas City28-3322

The competition's standings.