Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 05:30

Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union CHICAGO FIRE WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chicago Fire win~~40%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.627

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.613

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chicago Fire win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union
2′Little has changed for our model: Chicago Fire 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 40–23–36
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Mbekezeli Mbokazi · Chicago Fire
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Jack Elliott · Chicago Fire
43′We said Chicago Fire at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–21–11
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Chicago Fire 1–0 Philadelphia Union
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Chicago Fire win: 40% at kick-off, 68% now
45′Chicago Fire ahead on 44′ through Maren Haile-Selassie. 1–0. 1–0 · 69–21–10
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Chicago Fire
45′SECOND HALF Chicago Fire 1–0 Philadelphia Union
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chicago Fire · On: Andreas Hanche-Olsen · Off: Jonathan Bamba
47′🟥 RED CARD · 46' Jack Elliott · Chicago Fire
48′Chicago Fire are down to ten from 45′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 69–21–9
49′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–1 · 33–37–30
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Chicago Fire 1–1 Philadelphia Union
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Chicago Fire win: 40% at kick-off, 33% now
51′Milan Iloski scores for Philadelphia Union on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 32–38–30
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Chicago Fire win 32%)
53′8.0 shots for Philadelphia Union, 3.0 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 32–39–29
54′We said Chicago Fire at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–69
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Chicago Fire 1–2 Philadelphia Union · Milan Iloski
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Chicago Fire win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Philadelphia Union win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 22%)
56′55′ and it is 1–2: Bruno Damiani on the scoresheet for Philadelphia Union. 1–2 · 8–22–69
56′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Philadelphia Union · On: Indiana Vassilev · Off: Jesus Bueno
66′We said Chicago Fire at 40%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union · Bruno Damiani
68′Philadelphia Union ahead on 67′ through Bruno Damiani. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chicago Fire · On: Philip Zinckernagel · Off: Robert Lewandowski
69′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 1–4–96
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chicago Fire · On: Puso Dithejane · Off: Johan Arath Gomez
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chicago Fire · On: Philip Zinckernagel · Off: Robert Lewandowski
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chicago Fire · On: Leonardo Barroso · Off: Jonathan Dean
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Chicago Fire win: 40% at kick-off, 0% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Chicago Fire · On: Sergio Oregel · Off: Anton Saletros
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Philadelphia Union · On: Benjamin Bender · Off: Cavan Sullivan
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Philadelphia Union · On: Ezekiel Kwame Alladoh · Off: Bruno Damiani
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Indiana Vassilev · Philadelphia Union
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Philip Zinckernagel · Chicago Fire
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Philadelphia Union · On: Japhet Sery Larsen · Off: Quinn Sullivan
92′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Philadelphia Union · On: Malik Jakupovic · Off: Milan Iloski
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Neil Pierre · Philadelphia Union
FTFULL TIME Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union
FTChicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union · Chicago Fire win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Chicago Fire just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Chicago Fire 40%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union 36%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Chicago Fire v Philadelphia UnionBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off

Chicago Fire win40%

Draw24%

Philadelphia Union win36%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 01:30

VenueSoldier Field

RefereeRicardo Fierro

Line-ups

Chicago Fire

4-4-2

Philadelphia Union

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chicago Fire

Philadelphia Union

5Days since last match5

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Chicago Fire	28	11	48
6	Philadelphia Union	28	11	42

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Chicago Fire

4-4-2

1 C. Brady

24 J. Dean

3 J. Elliott

4 M. Mbokazi

32 N. Allen

18 J. Gómez

6 A. Salétros

22 M. Pineda

19 J. Bamba

9 R. Lewandowski

7 M. Haile-Selassie

Coach · G. Berhalter

Substitutes

15 · A. Gutman

25 · J. Gal

11 · P. Zinckernagel

12 · P. Dithejane

44 · J. Cohen

2 · Leonardo Barroso

21 · A. Hanche-Olsen

35 · S. Oregel

29 · D. Poręba

Philadelphia Union

4-4-2

18 A. Blake

39 F. Westfield

44 Neil Pierre

26 N. Harriel

27 K. Wagner

6 Cavan Sullivan

8 J. Bueno

4 J. Lukić

33 Q. Sullivan

10 M. Iloski

9 B. Damiani

Coach · Ryan Richter

Substitutes

16 · B. Bender

11 · A. Bedoya

23 · E. Alladoh

19 · I. Vassilev

51 · M. Jakupovic

2 · G. Martínez

14 · J. Rafanello

76 · A. Rick

5 · J. Sery Larsen

Our number · chicago fire winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 01:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Chicago Fire a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chicago Fire v Philadelphia Union~~1.71 – 1.61

~~Last six in Major League Soccer~~W3 D1 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 48 v 42~~3 v 6

~~The market · Chicago Fire win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chicago fire win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 36% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chicago Fire win	40%	39%	+1
Draw	24%	24%	0
Philadelphia Union win	36%	37%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	64%	67%	−3
Both teams to score	66%	68%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	85%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	47%	−5
Chicago Fire or draw	64%	63%	+1
Chicago Fire clean sheet	20%	–	–
Philadelphia Union clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.3 5.4 4.7 2.5 1 5.7 10.4 7.9 4.3 2 5.3 8.4 6.7 3.6 3 3.0 4.8 3.8 2.1 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chicago Fire down, Philadelphia Union across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,964 Major League Soccer matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

14 previous meetings, 3.36 goals a meeting; 9 of 14 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chicago Fire at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Philadelphia Union away: 3.33 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Chicago Fire, 1.61 for Philadelphia Union. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 01:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

14 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.36

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 14

~~Both scored~~8 of 14

~~Last meetings~~PHI 1–2 CHI · CHI 0–3 PHI · PHI 2–2 CHI · PHI 4–0 CHI

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

CHICAGO FIRE

DLLWWW1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1

PHILADELPHIA UNION

WWWWWW2–0 · 5–0 · 5–0 · 4–3 · 4–2 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	28	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	-11	32
12	DC United	27	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	-21	24