Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Chicago FireDrawOrlando City SC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Chicago Fire 50%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Chicago Fire are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Chicago Fire 50%, draw 22%, Orlando City SC 28%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Chicago Fire v Orlando City SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Chicago Fire win50%

Draw22%

Orlando City SC win28%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueSoldier Field

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Chicago Fire

Orlando City SC

12Days since last match12

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · chicago fire winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

50% The market–

Us50%

We make Chicago Fire a 50% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Chicago Fire v Orlando City SC~~2.15 – 1.58

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 48 v 41~~4 v 7

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chicago Fire win	50%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Orlando City SC win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	70%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	51%	–	–
Chicago Fire or draw	72%	–	–
Chicago Fire clean sheet	21%	–	–
Orlando City SC clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%

0123450 3.0 3.4 3.1 1 4.8 8.6 6.4 3.4 2 5.6 8.6 6.8 3.6 3 4.0 6.1 4.8 2.6 4 2.1 3.3 2.6 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chicago Fire down, Orlando City SC across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chicago Fire at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Orlando City SC away: 2.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Chicago Fire, 1.58 for Orlando City SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ORL 1–2 CHI · CHI 3–1 ORL · ORL 1–3 CHI · CHI 0–0 ORL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

CHICAGO FIRE

LWWWLL0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

ORLANDO CITY SC

WLLWDW3–0 · 2–4 · 2–4 · 3–2 · 3–3 · 4–1

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25