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Chicago Fire v New York City FC

Chicago Fire

2–1Full time

New York City FC

Major League Soccer · SAT 10 OCT · Soldier Field

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:01

Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC CHICAGO FIRE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Chicago Fire win~~45%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.453

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.403

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Chicago Fire win at 45%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Chicago Fire 45% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
9′Little has changed for our model: Chicago Fire 45% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
19′19′ and it is 0–1: Hannes Wolf on the scoresheet for New York City FC. 0–1 · 20–23–57
20′19′ and it is 0–1: Hannes Wolf on the scoresheet for New York City FC. 0–1 · 19–23–57
22′We said Chicago Fire at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–23–58
25′We said Chicago Fire at 45%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
32′The goal count is tracking the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 16–24–60
54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' New York City FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chicago Fire win 19%)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Chicago Fire win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' New York City FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chicago Fire win 19%)
56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Chicago Fire 1–1 New York City FC · Anton Saletros
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Chicago Fire win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' New York City FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chicago Fire win 19%)
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Chicago Fire win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' New York City FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chicago Fire win 19%)
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Chicago Fire win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' New York City FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chicago Fire win 19%)
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Chicago Fire win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' New York City FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chicago Fire win 19%)
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Chicago Fire win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' New York City FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chicago Fire win 19%)
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' New York City FC · On: Luighi Hanri Sousa Santos · Off: Alonso Martinez Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' New York City FC · On: Raul Bicalho · Off: Andrés Perea Corrected
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Chicago Fire win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' New York City FC win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Chicago Fire win 19%)
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Mbekezeli Mbokazi · Chicago Fire
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Chicago Fire · On: Puso Dithejane · Off: Philip Zinckernagel Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Chicago Fire · On: Johan Arath Gomez · Off: Robert Lewandowski Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Chicago Fire · On: Noah Allen · Off: Leonardo Barroso Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' New York City FC · On: Bénie Adama Traoré · Off: Agustin Ojeda Corrected
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' New York City FC · On: Jonathan Shore · Off: James Sands Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' New York City FC · On: Malachi Jones · Off: Hannes Wolf Corrected
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC · Anton Saletros
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC · Maren Haile-Selassie
95′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Mauricio Pineda · Chicago Fire
96′SUBSTITUTION · 95' Chicago Fire · On: Andreas Hanche-Olsen · Off: Maren Haile-Selassie Corrected
FTFULL TIME Chicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC
FTChicago Fire 2–1 New York City FC · Chicago Fire win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Chicago Fire win45%

Draw25%

New York City FC win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Soldier Field

Referee · Brandon Stevis

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Chicago Fire

4-4-2

1 C. Brady

24 J. Dean

3 J. Elliott

4 M. Mbokazi

2 L. Barroso

11 P. Zinckernagel

6 A. Saletros

42 D. D'Avilla

19 J. Bamba

9 R. Lewandowski

7 M. Haile-Selassie

Coach · Mario Barcena

Substitutes

44 · J. Cohen

22 · M. Pineda

21 · A. Hanche-Olsen

15 · A. Gutman

32 · N. Allen

29 · D. Poreba

35 · S. Oregel

18 · J. Gomez

12 · P. Dithejane

New York City FC

4-2-3-1

49 M. Freese

24 T. Gray

13 Thiago Martins

6 J. Sands

2 N. Cavallo

21 A. O'Neill

8 A. Perea

26 A. Ojeda

7 N. Mercau

17 H. Wolf

16 A. Martinez

Coach · Pascal Jansen

Substitutes

30 · T. Romero

3 · M. Miazga

22 · K. O'Toole

34 · Raul Gustavo

23 · M. Murray

32 · J. Shore

9 · B. Traore

88 · M. Jones

20 · Luighi

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Chicago Fire

4-4-2

1 C. Brady

24 J. Dean

3 J. Elliott

4 M. Mbokazi

2 L. Barroso

11 P. Zinckernagel

6 A. Saletros

42 D. D'Avilla

19 J. Bamba

9 R. Lewandowski

7 M. Haile-Selassie

Coach · Mario Barcena

Substitutes

44 · J. Cohen

22 · M. Pineda

21 · A. Hanche-Olsen

15 · A. Gutman

32 · N. Allen

29 · D. Poreba

35 · S. Oregel

18 · J. Gomez

12 · P. Dithejane

New York City FC

4-2-3-1

49 M. Freese

24 T. Gray

13 Thiago Martins

6 J. Sands

2 N. Cavallo

21 A. O'Neill

8 A. Perea

26 A. Ojeda

7 N. Mercau

17 H. Wolf

16 A. Martinez

Coach · Pascal Jansen

Substitutes

30 · T. Romero

3 · M. Miazga

22 · K. O'Toole

34 · Raul Gustavo

23 · M. Murray

32 · J. Shore

9 · B. Traore

88 · M. Jones

20 · Luighi

Our number · chicago fire winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make Chicago Fire a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · chicago fire win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 52% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Chicago Fire win	45%	48%	−3
Draw	25%	25%	0
New York City FC win	30%	27%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	57%	63%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	34%	42%	−7
Chicago Fire or draw	70%	73%	−3
Chicago Fire clean sheet	27%	–	–
New York City FC clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.9 6.2 4.4 1 8.0 11.7 7.2 3.2 2 7.1 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 3.9 5.1 3.3 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Chicago Fire down, New York City FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.08 goals a meeting; 4 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Chicago Fire at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). New York City FC away: 1.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Chicago Fire, 1.31 for New York City FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.08

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 12

~~Both scored~~5 of 12

~~Last meetings~~NEW 3–1 CHI · CHI 1–3 NEW · NEW 3–1 CHI · NEW 2–2 CHI

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

CHICAGO FIRE

DDLLWW4–4 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1

NEW YORK CITY FC

DDLWLD1–1 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21