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Charlotte v FC Dallas

Charlotte

3–2Full time

FC Dallas

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Bank of America Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

Charlotte 3–2 FC Dallas CHARLOTTE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Charlotte win~~47%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.415

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.483

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Charlotte win at 47%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Charlotte 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
1′KICK-OFF Charlotte v FC Dallas
3′Little has changed for our model: Charlotte 47% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–28
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Charlotte 0–1 FC Dallas
21′⚽ GOAL · 22' Charlotte 0–1 FC Dallas
45′SECOND HALF Charlotte 0–1 FC Dallas
56′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Dallas · On: Sebastien Ibeagha · Off: Lalas Abubakar Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Dallas · On: Petar Musa · Off: Logan Farrington Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Charlotte · On: Harry Toffolo · Off: David Schnegg Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Dallas · On: Santiago Moreno · Off: Patrickson Delgado Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Charlotte · On: Luca De La Torre · Off: Brandt Bronico Corrected
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Charlotte 0–2 FC Dallas · Logan Farrington
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Charlotte 0–2 FC Dallas · Petar Musa
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Charlotte · On: Rodolfo Aloko · Off: Liel Abada Corrected
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Charlotte · On: Will Cleary · Off: Nathan Byrne Corrected
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Charlotte 1–2 FC Dallas · Petar Musa
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Charlotte 1–2 FC Dallas · Idan Toklomati Jorno
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Charlotte 2–2 FC Dallas · Idan Toklomati Jorno
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Charlotte 2–2 FC Dallas · Harry Toffolo
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Dallas · On: Bernard Kamungo · Off: Herman Johansson Corrected
79′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Osaze Urhoghide · FC Dallas
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' FC Dallas · On: Daniel Job · Off: Joaquín Valiente Cioli Corrected
87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Morrison Agyemang · Charlotte
91′⚽ GOAL · 91' Charlotte 3–2 FC Dallas · Harry Toffolo
93′⚽ GOAL · 92' Charlotte 3–2 FC Dallas · Idan Toklomati Jorno
93′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Charlotte · On: Djibril Diani · Off: Allan Saint-Maximin Corrected
FTFULL TIME Charlotte 3–2 FC Dallas
FTCharlotte 3–2 FC Dallas · Charlotte win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Charlotte win47%

Draw25%

FC Dallas win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Bank of America Stadium

Referee · Drew Fischer

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Charlotte

4-2-3-1

1 K. Kahlina

14 N. Byrne

44 M. Agyemang

22 H. Kessler

23 D. Schnegg

8 A. Westwood

13 B. Bronico

11 L. Abada

16 P. Biel

10 A. Saint-Maximin

9 I. Toklomati

Coach · Dean Smith

Substitutes

21 · T. Miller

15 · H. Toffolo

4 · A. Privett

35 · W. Cleary

17 · L. de la Torre

28 · D. Diani

37 · R. Aloko

25 · T. Smalls

71 · N. Richmond

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1

42 Daniel

3 O. Urhoghide

5 L. Abubakar

32 N. Norris

14 H. Johansson

55 Kaick

12 C. Cappis

18 S. Moore

21 J. Valiente

8 P. Delgado

23 L. Farrington

Coach · Eric Quill

Substitutes

40 · J. Sirois

25 · S. Ibeagha

6 · R. Binyamin

17 · Ramiro

10 · S. Moreno

28 · S. Sarver

77 · B. Kamungo

9 · P. Musa

7 · D. Job

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Charlotte

4-2-3-1

1 K. Kahlina

14 N. Byrne

44 M. Agyemang

22 H. Kessler

23 D. Schnegg

8 A. Westwood

13 B. Bronico

11 L. Abada

16 P. Biel

10 A. Saint-Maximin

9 I. Toklomati

Coach · Dean Smith

Substitutes

21 · T. Miller

15 · H. Toffolo

4 · A. Privett

35 · W. Cleary

17 · L. de la Torre

28 · D. Diani

37 · R. Aloko

25 · T. Smalls

71 · N. Richmond

FC Dallas

3-4-2-1

42 Daniel

3 O. Urhoghide

5 L. Abubakar

32 N. Norris

14 H. Johansson

55 Kaick

12 C. Cappis

18 S. Moore

21 J. Valiente

8 P. Delgado

23 L. Farrington

Coach · Eric Quill

Substitutes

40 · J. Sirois

25 · S. Ibeagha

6 · R. Binyamin

17 · Ramiro

10 · S. Moreno

28 · S. Sarver

77 · B. Kamungo

9 · P. Musa

7 · D. Job

Our number · charlotte winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

47% The market43%

Us47%

~~Market~~43%

We make Charlotte a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · charlotte win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 42% to 43% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charlotte win	47%	43%	+4
Draw	25%	25%	0
FC Dallas win	28%	32%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	57%	65%	−7
Both teams to score	59%	66%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	35%	44%	−9
Charlotte or draw	72%	68%	+4
Charlotte clean sheet	28%	–	–
FC Dallas clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 5.7 5.9 4.1 1 8.2 11.5 6.9 2.9 2 7.4 9.3 5.9 2.5 3 4.3 5.3 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Charlotte down, FC Dallas across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Charlotte at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Dallas away: 1.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for Charlotte, 1.27 for FC Dallas. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

CHARLOTTE

WDWDWL2–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

FC DALLAS

DWWWDW3–3 · 4–3 · 2–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21