Charlotte v CF Montreal prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CharlotteDrawCF Montreal

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Charlotte 60%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Charlotte are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Charlotte 60%, draw 22%, CF Montreal 18%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Charlotte v CF MontrealBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Charlotte win60%

Draw22%

CF Montreal win18%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 23:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueBank of America Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Charlotte

CF Montreal

11Days since last match4

Last match: 17 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 24 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days4

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
15	CF Montreal	31	−26	25

In the news

from the pressAll ›

Nashville SC seal first MLS Supporters’ Shield with 2-0 win over CF MontrealThe Guardian · 24 Oct 22:07 · Nashville SC, CF Montreal

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · charlotte winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Charlotte a 60% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Charlotte v CF Montreal~~2.05 – 1.02

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 47 v 25~~5 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Charlotte win	60%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
CF Montreal win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	59%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	–	–
Charlotte or draw	82%	–	–
Charlotte clean sheet	36%	–	–
CF Montreal clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.3%

0123450 5.4 4.3 2.5 1 9.0 10.3 4.9 2 9.7 9.7 5.0 3 6.6 6.6 3.4 4 3.4 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Charlotte down, CF Montreal across0–5 goals a side shown (97.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Charlotte at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). CF Montreal away: 0.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Charlotte, 1.02 for CF Montreal. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~4 of 9

~~Last meetings~~CFM 1–2 CHA · CHA 1–4 CFM · CFM 0–1 CHA · CHA 2–0 CFM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

CHARLOTTE

DWLWLD3–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 3–2 · 1–3 · 2–2

CF MONTREAL

LWLLDL0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	31	+43	70
2	Inter Miami	31	+20	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	New York Red Bulls	31	−15	39
9	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
10	Columbus Crew	31	+1	38
11	Toronto FC	31	−11	36
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	31	−26	25