CF Montreal v Nashville SC prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:15

CF Montreal 0–2 Nashville SC NASHVILLE SC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nashville SC win~~49%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.389

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.216

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nashville SC win at 49%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Nashville SC 49% before kick-off, 49% now. 0–0 · 25–26–49
1′KICK-OFF CF Montreal v Nashville SC
15′🟨 YELLOW · 13' CF Montreal
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Nashville SC win: 49% at kick-off, 39% now
45′HALF-TIME CF Montreal 0–0 Nashville SC
45′SECOND HALF CF Montreal 0–0 Nashville SC
49′We said Nashville SC at 49%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 0–0 · 22–40–37
50′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Viktor Radojević · CF Montreal
51′We said Nashville SC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 0–1 · 5–17–78
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' CF Montreal 0–1 Nashville SC
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Nashville SC win: 49% at kick-off, 78% now
53′Nashville SC ahead on 51′ through Sam Surridge. 0–1. 0–1 · 4–17–79
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Nashville SC win: 49% at kick-off, 79% now
59′We said Nashville SC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
66′🟨 YELLOW · 65' Elias Saad · Nashville SC
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Nashville SC · On: Edvard Sandvik Tagseth · Off: matthew corcoran
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Nashville SC · On: Warren Madrigal · Off: Elias Saad
71′We said Nashville SC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
72′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Jeisson Palacios · Nashville SC
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' CF Montreal · On: Wikelman·Carmona · Off: Dante Sealy
75′We said Nashville SC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' CF Montreal 0–2 Nashville SC
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Nashville SC win: 49% at kick-off, 99% now
76′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
77′Hany Mukhtar scores for Nashville SC on 76′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nashville SC · On: Alex Muyl · Off: Cristian Espinoza
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Nashville SC · On: Bryan Acosta · Off: Patrick Yazbek
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CF Montreal · On: Daniel Rios · Off: Alexis Sanchez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' CF Montreal · On: Matthew Longstaff · Off: Samuel Piette
82′We said Nashville SC at 49% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CF Montreal · On: Frankie Amaya · Off: Daniel Pereira
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' CF Montreal · On: Fabian Herbers · Off: Olger Escobar
90′0–2 at the end. Our 49% on Nashville SC comes in. 0–2 · 0–0–100
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Nashville SC · On: josh bauer · Off: Andy Najar
FTFULL TIME CF Montreal 0–2 Nashville SC
FTCF Montreal 0–2 Nashville SC · Nashville SC win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Nashville SC are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CF Montreal 25%, draw 26%, Nashville SC 49%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on CF Montreal v Nashville SCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

CF Montreal win25%

Draw26%

Nashville SC win49%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueSaputo Stadium

RefereeLukasz Szpala

Line-ups

CF Montreal

4-2-3-1

Nashville SC

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CF Montreal

Nashville SC

3Days since last match6

Last match: 22 Oct · Canadian Championship

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

4Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CF Montreal

4-2-3-1

41 S. Keita

27 D. Bugaj

24 E. Morales

4 B. Vera

28 V. Radojević

6 S. Piette

7 D. Pereira

18 H. Synchuk

29 O. Escobar

17 D. Sealy

10 A. Sánchez

Coach · Philippe Eullaffroy

Substitutes

25 · F. Amaya

1 · S. Breza

16 · W. Carmona

5 · B. Craig

21 · F. Herbers

8 · M. Longstaff

22 · V. Loturi

13 · L. Petrasso

14 · D. Ríos

Nashville SC

4-2-3-1

99 B. Schwake

31 A. Najar

4 J. Palacios

3 M. Woledzi

27 R. Baker-Whiting

8 P. Yazbek

16 M. Corcoran

7 C. Espinoza

10 H. Mukhtar

11 E. Saad

9 S. Surridge

Coach · B. Callaghan

Substitutes

22 · J. Bauer

2 · D. Lovitz

41 · W. Madrigal

5 · J. Maher

14 · S. Mohammed

19 · A. Muyl

20 · E. Tagseth

1 · J. Willis

6 · B. Acosta

Our number · nashville sc winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 04:11 · locked at kick-off

49% The market62%

Us49%

~~Market~~62%

We make Nashville SC a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CF Montreal v Nashville SC~~1.12 – 1.66

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 25 v 67~~15 v 1

~~The market · Nashville SC win~~62% · ours 49%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Nashville SC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 49% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CF Montreal win	25%	17%	+8
Draw	26%	21%	+5
Nashville SC win	49%	62%	−13
Over 2.5 goals	53%	60%	−7
Both teams to score	55%	57%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	77%	81%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	30%	39%	−9
CF Montreal or draw	51%	38%	+13
CF Montreal clean sheet	19%	–	–
Nashville SC clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.0 9.6 8.5 4.7 1 6.3 12.1 9.4 5.2 2.2 2 3.9 6.4 5.3 2.9 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CF Montreal down, Nashville SC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CF Montreal at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Nashville SC away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for CF Montreal, 1.66 for Nashville SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~NAS 1–0 CFM · CFM 1–1 NAS · NAS 3–0 CFM · CFM 0–0 NAS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

CF MONTREAL

LLWLLD0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–1

NASHVILLE SC

DWWWWD2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 4–1 · 4–0 · 1–1

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25