CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 03:00

CF Montreal 0–3 Atlanta United FC CF MONTREAL WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said CF Montreal win~~43%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.715

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.666

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said CF Montreal win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: CF Montreal was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–25–32
1′KICK-OFF CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC
6′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Atlanta United FC
21′We said CF Montreal at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 0–1 · 17–23–60
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' CF Montreal 0–1 Atlanta United FC
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' CF Montreal win: 43% at kick-off, 17% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' Atlanta United FC win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was CF Montreal win 17%)
23′Atlanta United FC ahead on 22′ through Miguel Almirón. 0–1. 0–1 · 17–23–60
31′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 0–1 · 15–23–62
34′We said CF Montreal at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' CF Montreal win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
41′We said CF Montreal at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 0–2 · 3–9–88
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' CF Montreal 0–2 Atlanta United FC · Miguel Almirón
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' CF Montreal win: 43% at kick-off, 3% now
42′Giuliano Galoppo scores for Atlanta United FC on 42′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
43′Giuliano Galoppo scores for Atlanta United FC on 41′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 3–9–88
45′SECOND HALF CF Montreal 0–2 Atlanta United FC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' CF Montreal · On: Efrain Morales · Off: Dawid Bugaj
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Junior Alonso · Atlanta United FC
59′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–1–99
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' CF Montreal 0–3 Atlanta United FC · Giuliano Galoppo
60′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Lucas Hoyos · Atlanta United FC
61′60′ and it is 0–3: Breel Embolo on the scoresheet for Atlanta United FC. 0–3 · 0–1–99
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Atlanta United FC · On: Steven Alzate · Off: Ajani Fortune
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CF Montreal · On: Fabian Herbers · Off: Matthew Longstaff
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CF Montreal · On: Victor Loturi · Off: Daniel Pereira
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' CF Montreal · On: Gennadiy Synchuk · Off: Wikelman·Carmona
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Atlanta United FC · On: Sergi Santos · Off: Breel Embolo
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Atlanta United FC · On: Cooper Sanchez · Off: Giuliano Galoppo
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' CF Montreal · On: Olger Escobar · Off: Alexis Sanchez
82′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atlanta United FC · On: Fafà Picault · Off: Miguel Almirón
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Atlanta United FC · On: Tristan Muyumba · Off: Mauricio Amaro
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Olger Escobar · CF Montreal
90′Full time, 0–3. We called CF Montreal at 43% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–3 · 0–0–100
92′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Fafà Picault · Atlanta United FC
FTFULL TIME CF Montreal 0–3 Atlanta United FC
FTCF Montreal 0–3 Atlanta United FC · CF Montreal win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

CF Montreal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: CF Montreal 43%, draw 26%, Atlanta United FC 32%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on CF Montreal v Atlanta United FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

CF Montreal win43%

Draw26%

Atlanta United FC win32%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 00:30

VenueSaputo Stadium

RefereeRicardo Montero Araya

Line-ups

CF Montreal

4-2-3-1

Atlanta United FC

4-1-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

CF Montreal

Atlanta United FC

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Atlanta United FC	28	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	-21	24

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

CF Montreal

4-2-3-1

1 S. Breza

27 D. Bugaj

2 J. Neal

5 B. Craig

13 L. Petrasso

8 M. Longstaff

7 D. Pereira

16 W. Carmona

10 A. Sánchez

23 N. Streit

14 D. Ríos

Coach · Philippe Eullaffroy

Substitutes

22 · V. Loturi

21 · F. Herbers

41 · S. Keita

24 · E. Morales

6 · S. Piette

18 · H. Synchuk

26 · I. Losenko

29 · O. Escobar

25 · F. Amaya

Atlanta United FC

4-1-4-1

1 L. Hoyos

47 Matthew Edwards

27 P. Díaz

6 J. Alonso

3 E. Báez

14 M. Amaro

59 A. Miranchuk

35 A. Fortune

11 G. Galoppo

10 M. Almirón

36 B. Embolo

Coach · G. Martino

Substitutes

22 · F. Picault

48 · C. Sanchez

19 · Sergio Santos

4 · E. Mihaj

42 · Jayden Hibbert

16 · Adrian Gill

8 · T. Muyumba

7 · S. Alzate

30 · C. Togashi

Our number · cf montreal winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · updated 15 Oct 00:04 · locked at kick-off

43% The market41%

Us43%

~~Market~~41%

We make CF Montreal a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · CF Montreal v Atlanta United FC~~1.57 – 1.32

~~Last six in Major League Soccer~~W1 D0 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 27~~15 v 14

~~The market · CF Montreal win~~41% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · cf montreal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 43% now. The market has gone from 44% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
CF Montreal win	43%	41%	+2
Draw	26%	26%	0
Atlanta United FC win	32%	34%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Both teams to score	58%	64%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	79%	81%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	33%	40%	−8
CF Montreal or draw	68%	66%	+2
CF Montreal clean sheet	27%	–	–
Atlanta United FC clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 6.3 6.8 4.9 2.2 1 8.1 12.0 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.9 5.9 2.6 3 3.6 4.7 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+CF Montreal down, Atlanta United FC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,964 Major League Soccer matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 3.23 goals a meeting; 9 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

CF Montreal at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Atlanta United FC away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.57 goals for CF Montreal, 1.32 for Atlanta United FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 15 Oct 00:02. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.23

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 13

~~Both scored~~10 of 13

~~Last meetings~~ATL 3–1 CFM · CFM 1–1 ATL · ATL 3–2 CFM · CFM 2–2 ATL

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

CF MONTREAL

LLLLWL0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 1–2

ATLANTA UNITED FC

DLDWDL2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	28	37	63
2	Inter Miami	28	18	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	11	48
4	New England Revolution	28	6	46
5	Charlotte	28	10	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	11	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	-15	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	-14	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	-7	36
10	New York City FC	28	4	33
11	Toronto FC	28	-11	32
12	DC United	27	-12	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	-5	29
14	Atlanta United FC	28	-15	27
15	CF Montreal	28	-21	24