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Model 1.2

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Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps

Austin
1–2Full time
Vancouver Whitecaps

Major League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Q2 Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 04:05
Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps VANCOUVER WHITECAPS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Vancouver Whitecaps win48%
The market said58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.405
The market’s Brier score0.260

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Vancouver Whitecaps win at 48%.
  2. 3′KICK-OFF Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps
  3. 4′Much as we predicted: Vancouver Whitecaps was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 27–26–47
  4. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Andrés Cubas · Vancouver Whitecaps
  5. 38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Tristan Blackmon · Vancouver Whitecaps
  6. 41′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 60–25–15
  7. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Austin 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
  8. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 15% now
  9. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Austin win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Vancouver Whitecaps win 15%)
  10. 43′Austin ahead on 40′ through Myrto Uzuni. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–25–14
  11. 45′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 61–25–13
  12. 45′HALF-TIME Austin 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
  13. 45′SECOND HALF Austin 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
  14. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Austin 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
  15. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
  16. 48′Ryan Gauld scores for Vancouver Whitecaps on 47′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–39–37
  17. 50′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 23–40–37
  18. 51′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 23–40–36
  19. 52′7 shots for Vancouver Whitecaps, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 23–41–36
  20. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Austin win 23%)
  21. 55′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 22–43–34
  22. 58′Vancouver Whitecaps have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 22–45–33
  23. 68′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 18–55–27
  24. 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 27% now
  25. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Austin · On: Guilherme Biro · Off: Oleksandr Svatok
  26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Ralph Priso · Off: Andrés Cubas
  27. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Yadaly Diaby · Off: Bruno Caicedo
  28. 70′We published Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
  29. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
  30. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 83% now
  31. 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Vancouver Whitecaps win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
  32. 71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–15–83
  33. 72′71′: Yadaly Diaby on the scoresheet for Vancouver Whitecaps, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
  34. 73′We published Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  35. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
  36. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Austin · On: Jorge Alastuey · Off: Besard Sabovic
  37. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Austin · On: Facundo Daniel Torres Perez · Off: Christian Ramirez
  38. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Austin · On: Mikkel Desler · Off: Brendan Hines-Ike
  39. 81′We published Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
  40. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Oliver Love Larraz · Off: Aleksa Cvetkovic
  41. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Cheikh Sabaly · Off: Emmanuel Sabbi
  42. 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Austin · On: Ilie Sánchez · Off: Jon Gallagher
  43. 88′We published Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  44. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Rayan Elloumi · Off: Brian White
  45. 90′Full time, 1–2. We called Vancouver Whitecaps at 48% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
  46. 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ryan Gauld · Vancouver Whitecaps
  47. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
  48. FTFULL TIME Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
  49. FTAustin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps · Vancouver Whitecaps win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Vancouver Whitecaps are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Austin 27%, draw 25%, Vancouver Whitecaps 48%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Austin v Vancouver WhitecapsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Austin win27%
Draw25%
Vancouver Whitecaps win48%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueQ2 Stadium

RefereeTori Penso

Line-ups

Austin

3-4-3

Vancouver Whitecaps

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Austin

Vancouver Whitecaps

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026 · Western Conference

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vancouver Whitecaps29+3152
14Austin29−1731

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Austin

3-4-3

1 B. Stuver

4 B. Hines-Ike

5 O. Svatok

15 J. Bell

30 J. Rosales

38 Ervin Torres

14 B. Šabović

17 J. Gallagher

21 C. Ramirez

9 B. Vázquez

10 M. Uzuni

Coach · D. Arnaud

Substitutes

24 · Jorge Alastuey

22 · Chris Applewhite

3 · M. Desler

35 · M. Đorđević

29 · Guilherme Biro

12 · D. Las

77 · P. Płacheta

6 · Ilie Sánchez

11 · F. Torres

Vancouver Whitecaps

4-2-3-1

1 Y. Takaoka

18 É. Ocampo

2 M. Laborda

33 T. Blackmon

28 T. Johnson

20 A. Cubas

23 A. Cvetković

11 E. Sabbi

25 R. Gauld

14 Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez

24 B. White

Coach · J. Sørensen

Substitutes

4 · R. Veselinović

7 · C. Sabaly

6 · R. Priso

70 · Rui Modesto

8 · O. Larraz

29 · M. Gherasimencov

19 · R. Elloumi

77 · Y. Diaby

32 · I. Boehmer

Our number · vancouver whitecaps winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
48% The market58%
Us48%
Market58%

We make Vancouver Whitecaps a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps1.22 – 1.71
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 SeptW1 D3 L2 · W1 D3 L2
Table places · points 31 v 5214 v 1
The market · Vancouver Whitecaps win58% · ours 48%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Austin win27%20%+7
Draw25%22%+3
Vancouver Whitecaps win48%58%−10
Over 2.5 goals56%63%−7
Both teams to score58%61%−3
Over 1.5 goals79%83%−4
Over 3.5 goals34%42%−8
Austin or draw52%42%+10
Austin clean sheet18%––
Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet30%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%
0123450 6.1 8.5 7.8 4.4 1 6.0 11.7 9.4 5.3 2.3 2 4.0 6.8 5.7 3.3 3 2.8 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Austin down, Vancouver Whitecaps across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.10
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsVAN 1–2 AUS · AUS 0–0 VAN · VAN 5–1 AUS · AUS 0–1 VAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept

AUSTIN

DWDDLL1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 1–3

VANCOUVER WHITECAPS

LWDLDD1–2 · 3–0 · 3–3 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Western Conference
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Vancouver Whitecaps29+3152
2St. Louis City29+1651
3FC Dallas29+850
4San Jose Earthquakes29+1047
5Houston Dynamo29+246
6Los Angeles FC30+1545
7Seattle Sounders29+241
8Los Angeles Galaxy30−939
9Colorado Rapids29038
10Portland Timbers29−533
11Real Salt Lake29−533
12San Diego29−333
13Minnesota United FC29−931
14Austin29−1731
15Sporting Kansas City29−3722

The competition's standings before kick-off.