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Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps
Austin
Vancouver WhitecapsMajor League Soccer · SUN 18 OCT · Q2 Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Vancouver Whitecaps win at 48%.
- 3′KICK-OFF Austin v Vancouver Whitecaps
- 4′Much as we predicted: Vancouver Whitecaps was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 27–26–47
- 15′🟨 YELLOW · 13' Andrés Cubas · Vancouver Whitecaps
- 38′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Tristan Blackmon · Vancouver Whitecaps
- 41′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 60–25–15
- 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Austin 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 15% now
- 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Austin win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Vancouver Whitecaps win 15%)
- 43′Austin ahead on 40′ through Myrto Uzuni. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–25–14
- 45′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 61–25–13
- 45′HALF-TIME Austin 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
- 45′SECOND HALF Austin 1–0 Vancouver Whitecaps
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Austin 1–1 Vancouver Whitecaps
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
- 48′Ryan Gauld scores for Vancouver Whitecaps on 47′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–39–37
- 50′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–1 · 23–40–37
- 51′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 36%. 1–1 · 23–40–36
- 52′7 shots for Vancouver Whitecaps, 1 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 23–41–36
- 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Austin win 23%)
- 55′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 22–43–34
- 58′Vancouver Whitecaps have had 8 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 22–45–33
- 68′We said Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 18–55–27
- 68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 27% now
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Austin · On: Guilherme Biro · Off: Oleksandr Svatok
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Ralph Priso · Off: Andrés Cubas
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Yadaly Diaby · Off: Bruno Caicedo
- 70′We published Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
- 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
- 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 83% now
- 70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Vancouver Whitecaps win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
- 71′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 2–15–83
- 72′71′: Yadaly Diaby on the scoresheet for Vancouver Whitecaps, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 2–14–84
- 73′We published Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Austin · On: Jorge Alastuey · Off: Besard Sabovic
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Austin · On: Facundo Daniel Torres Perez · Off: Christian Ramirez
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Austin · On: Mikkel Desler · Off: Brendan Hines-Ike
- 81′We published Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Oliver Love Larraz · Off: Aleksa Cvetkovic
- 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Cheikh Sabaly · Off: Emmanuel Sabbi
- 83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Austin · On: Ilie Sánchez · Off: Jon Gallagher
- 88′We published Vancouver Whitecaps at 48%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Vancouver Whitecaps · On: Rayan Elloumi · Off: Brian White
- 90′Full time, 1–2. We called Vancouver Whitecaps at 48% — that one lands. 1–2 · 0–0–100
- 92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ryan Gauld · Vancouver Whitecaps
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Vancouver Whitecaps win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
- FTFULL TIME Austin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps
- FTAustin 1–2 Vancouver Whitecaps · Vancouver Whitecaps win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Vancouver Whitecaps are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Austin 27%, draw 25%, Vancouver Whitecaps 48%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Austin win27%
Vancouver Whitecaps win48%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 01:30
RoundMatchday 30
VenueQ2 Stadium
RefereeTori Penso
Match timeline
All events
AustinMIN
Vancouver WhitecapsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Austin
3-4-3
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Austin
Vancouver Whitecaps
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Austin
3-4-3
1 B. Stuver
4 B. Hines-Ike
5 O. Svatok
15 J. Bell
30 J. Rosales
38 Ervin Torres
14 B. Šabović
17 J. Gallagher
21 C. Ramirez
9 B. Vázquez
10 M. Uzuni
Coach · D. Arnaud
Substitutes
24 · Jorge Alastuey
22 · Chris Applewhite
3 · M. Desler
35 · M. Đorđević
29 · Guilherme Biro
12 · D. Las
77 · P. Płacheta
6 · Ilie Sánchez
11 · F. Torres
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1
1 Y. Takaoka
18 É. Ocampo
2 M. Laborda
33 T. Blackmon
28 T. Johnson
20 A. Cubas
23 A. Cvetković
11 E. Sabbi
25 R. Gauld
14 Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez
24 B. White
Coach · J. Sørensen
Substitutes
4 · R. Veselinović
7 · C. Sabaly
6 · R. Priso
70 · Rui Modesto
8 · O. Larraz
29 · M. Gherasimencov
19 · R. Elloumi
77 · Y. Diaby
32 · I. Boehmer
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Austin
3-4-3
1 B. Stuver
4 B. Hines-Ike
5 O. Svatok
15 J. Bell
30 J. Rosales
38 Ervin Torres
14 B. Šabović
17 J. Gallagher
21 C. Ramirez
9 B. Vázquez
10 M. Uzuni
Coach · D. Arnaud
Substitutes
24 · Jorge Alastuey
22 · Chris Applewhite
3 · M. Desler
35 · M. Đorđević
29 · Guilherme Biro
12 · D. Las
77 · P. Płacheta
6 · Ilie Sánchez
11 · F. Torres
Vancouver Whitecaps
4-2-3-1
1 Y. Takaoka
18 É. Ocampo
2 M. Laborda
33 T. Blackmon
28 T. Johnson
20 A. Cubas
23 A. Cvetković
11 E. Sabbi
25 R. Gauld
14 Bruno Steven Caicedo Quiñonez
24 B. White
Coach · J. Sørensen
Substitutes
4 · R. Veselinović
7 · C. Sabaly
6 · R. Priso
70 · Rui Modesto
8 · O. Larraz
29 · M. Gherasimencov
19 · R. Elloumi
77 · Y. Diaby
32 · I. Boehmer
We make Vancouver Whitecaps a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 58%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin win | 27% | 20% | +7 |
| Draw | 25% | 22% | +3 |
| Vancouver Whitecaps win | 48% | 58% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 63% | −7 |
| Both teams to score | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 83% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | 42% | −8 |
| Austin or draw | 52% | 42% | +10 |
| Austin clean sheet | 18% | – | – |
| Vancouver Whitecaps clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 10 Sept
AUSTIN
VANCOUVER WHITECAPS
The table
2026 · Western Conference| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 29 | +31 | 52 |
| 2 | St. Louis City | 29 | +16 | 51 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 29 | +8 | 50 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 29 | +10 | 47 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 29 | +2 | 46 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 30 | +15 | 45 |
| 7 | Seattle Sounders | 29 | +2 | 41 |
| 8 | Los Angeles Galaxy | 30 | −9 | 39 |
| 9 | Colorado Rapids | 29 | 0 | 38 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 29 | −5 | 33 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 29 | −5 | 33 |
| 12 | San Diego | 29 | −3 | 33 |
| 13 | Minnesota United FC | 29 | −9 | 31 |
| 14 | Austin | 29 | −17 | 31 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 29 | −37 | 22 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
St. Louis City
FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles Galaxy
Colorado Rapids
Portland Timbers
Real Salt Lake
San Diego
Minnesota United FC
Sporting Kansas City