Austin v Real Salt Lake prediction · Major League Soccer

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AustinDrawReal Salt Lake

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 00:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Austin 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Austin are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Austin 40%, draw 26%, Real Salt Lake 34%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Austin v Real Salt LakeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Austin win40%

Draw26%

Real Salt Lake win34%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 32

VenueQ2 Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Austin

Real Salt Lake

11Days since last match11

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
14	Austin	30	−18	31

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · austin winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Austin a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Austin v Real Salt Lake~~1.47 – 1.35

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 31 v 36~~14 v 10

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Austin win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Real Salt Lake win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Austin or draw	66%	–	–
Austin clean sheet	26%	–	–
Real Salt Lake clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 6.8 7.4 5.4 2.5 1 8.1 12.4 7.9 3.6 2 6.5 8.6 5.8 2.6 3 3.2 4.2 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Austin down, Real Salt Lake across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 3,002 Major League Soccer matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 458 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 9 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Austin at home: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Real Salt Lake away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.47 goals for Austin, 1.35 for Real Salt Lake. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~9 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–1 AUS · REA 3–1 AUS · AUS 1–1 REA · AUS 2–2 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 13 Sept

AUSTIN

WDDLLL2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3 · 1–4 · 1–3 · 1–2

REAL SALT LAKE

LLWLDW0–3 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026 · Western Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	30	+32	55
2	St. Louis City	30	+15	51
3	FC Dallas	30	+8	51
4	San Jose Earthquakes	30	+10	48
5	Houston Dynamo	30	+2	47
6	Los Angeles FC	31	+15	46
7	Seattle Sounders	30	+2	42
8	Los Angeles Galaxy	31	−9	40
9	Colorado Rapids	30	0	39
10	Real Salt Lake	30	−3	36
11	Portland Timbers	30	−5	34
12	San Diego	30	−3	34
13	Minnesota United FC	30	−8	34
14	Austin	30	−18	31
15	Sporting Kansas City	30	−39	22