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Austin v Nashville SC

Austin

1–4Full time

Nashville SC

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Q2 Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 04:10

Austin 1–4 Nashville SC NASHVILLE SC WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Nashville SC win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.500

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Nashville SC win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Nashville SC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
1′KICK-OFF Austin v Nashville SC
2′Much as we predicted: Nashville SC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 31–26–43
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Austin 0–1 Nashville SC
30′⚽ GOAL · 31' Austin 0–1 Nashville SC
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Guilherme Biro · Austin
45′SECOND HALF Austin 0–1 Nashville SC
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Austin · On: Brendan Hines-Ike · Off: Jon Bell
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Austin · On: Christian Ramirez · Off: Myrto Uzuni
61′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Austin · On: Besard Sabovic · Off: Jorge Alastuey
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Austin 0–2 Nashville SC · Reed Baker-Whiting
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Austin 0–2 Nashville SC · Elias Saad
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Nashville SC · On: Shakur Mohammed · Off: Elias Saad
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Austin · On: Przemyslaw Płacheta · Off: Mikkel Desler
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nashville SC · On: Edvard Sandvik Tagseth · Off: Patrick Yazbek
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Nashville SC · On: Daniel Lovitz · Off: Andy Najar
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Austin 1–2 Nashville SC · Elias Saad
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Austin 1–2 Nashville SC · Brandon Vazquez
78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Shakur Mohammed · Nashville SC
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Brian Schwake · Nashville SC
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Austin 1–3 Nashville SC · Brandon Vazquez
89′⚽ GOAL · 88' Austin 1–3 Nashville SC · Shakur Mohammed
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Austin 1–4 Nashville SC · Shakur Mohammed
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Nashville SC · On: Bryan Acosta · Off: matthew corcoran
90′⚽ GOAL · 91' Austin 1–4 Nashville SC · Hany Mukhtar
FTFULL TIME Austin 1–4 Nashville SC
FTAustin 1–4 Nashville SC · Nashville SC win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Austin win31%

Draw27%

Nashville SC win42%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 01:30

Venue · Q2 Stadium

Referee · Ismail Elfath

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Austin

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Stuver

3 M. Desler

15 J. Bell

29 Guilherme Biro

11 F. Torres

38 E. Torres

6 I. Sanchez

17 J. Gallagher

24 J. Alastuey

9 B. Vazquez

10 M. Uzuni

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · D. Las

5 · O. Svatok

4 · B. Hines-Ike

35 · M. Djordjevic

22 · C. Applewhite

32 · M. Burton

14 · B. Sabovic

21 · C. Ramirez

77 · P. Placheta

Nashville SC

4-2-3-1

99 B. Schwake

31 A. Najar

4 J. Palacios

3 M. Woledzi

27 R. Baker-Whiting

8 P. Yazbek

16 M. Corcoran

7 C. Espinoza

10 H. Mukhtar

11 E. Saad

9 S. Surridge

Coach · Brian Callaghan

Substitutes

1 · J. Willis

5 · J. Maher

22 · J. Bauer

2 · D. Lovitz

6 · B. Acosta

20 · E. Tagseth

14 · S. Mohammed

19 · A. Muyl

41 · W. Madrigal

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Austin

Formation not confirmed

1 B. Stuver

3 M. Desler

15 J. Bell

29 Guilherme Biro

11 F. Torres

38 E. Torres

6 I. Sanchez

17 J. Gallagher

24 J. Alastuey

9 B. Vazquez

10 M. Uzuni

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · D. Las

5 · O. Svatok

4 · B. Hines-Ike

35 · M. Djordjevic

22 · C. Applewhite

32 · M. Burton

14 · B. Sabovic

21 · C. Ramirez

77 · P. Placheta

Nashville SC

4-2-3-1

99 B. Schwake

31 A. Najar

4 J. Palacios

3 M. Woledzi

27 R. Baker-Whiting

8 P. Yazbek

16 M. Corcoran

7 C. Espinoza

10 H. Mukhtar

11 E. Saad

9 S. Surridge

Coach · Brian Callaghan

Substitutes

1 · J. Willis

5 · J. Maher

22 · J. Bauer

2 · D. Lovitz

6 · B. Acosta

20 · E. Tagseth

14 · S. Mohammed

19 · A. Muyl

41 · W. Madrigal

Our number · nashville sc winPublished 11 Oct 01:41

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make Nashville SC a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · nashville sc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Austin win	31%	25%	+5
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Nashville SC win	42%	49%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	49%	55%	−7
Both teams to score	53%	57%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	34%	−7
Austin or draw	58%	51%	+7
Austin clean sheet	24%	–	–
Nashville SC clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.9%

0123450 8.0 9.8 7.5 3.6 1 8.0 12.9 8.8 4.2 2 5.1 7.2 5.2 2.5 3 2.0 2.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Austin down, Nashville SC across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Austin at home: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Nashville SC away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Austin, 1.44 for Nashville SC. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 01:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~NAS 0–2 AUS · AUS 1–1 NAS · NAS 3–0 AUS · NAS 1–0 AUS

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

AUSTIN

WDDWDD2–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 3–3

NASHVILLE SC

WDLDWW4–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21