Atlanta United FC v Inter Miami prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 03:01

Atlanta United FC 1–3 Inter Miami INTER MIAMI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Inter Miami win~~46%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.444

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.381

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Inter Miami win at 46%.
1′KICK-OFF Atlanta United FC v Inter Miami
2′Little has changed for our model: Inter Miami 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 32–23–46
45′We said Inter Miami at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 0–1 · 9–19–71
45′⚽ GOAL · 45' Atlanta United FC 0–1 Inter Miami
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Inter Miami win: 46% at kick-off, 71% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Tomás Jacob · Atlanta United FC
45′SECOND HALF Atlanta United FC 0–1 Inter Miami
46′Germán Berterame scores for Inter Miami on 45′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–19–71
46′HALF-TIME Atlanta United FC 0–1 Inter Miami
55′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Mauricio Amaro · Atlanta United FC
56′We said Inter Miami at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 0–2 · 1–6–93
56′10 shots for Atlanta United FC, 4 the other way, and they still trail 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–93
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Atlanta United FC 0–2 Inter Miami
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Inter Miami win: 46% at kick-off, 93% now
58′56′: Lionel Messi on the scoresheet for Inter Miami, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–93
58′The goal count is tracking the 3.6 we expected. 0–2 · 1–5–93
62′We said Inter Miami at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–3 · 0–1–99
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Atlanta United FC 0–3 Inter Miami
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Inter Miami win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
64′Inter Miami ahead on 60′ through Lionel Messi. 0–3. 0–3 · 0–1–99
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atlanta United FC · On: Steven Alzate · Off: Tristan Muyumba
69′We said Inter Miami at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
69′Atlanta United FC have had 13 attempts to 6 and it is still 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
74′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Breel Embolo · Atlanta United FC
74′PENALTY CANCELLED · 71' Inter Miami
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Inter Miami · On: Maximiliano Falcon · Off: Carlos Henrique Casimiro
81′Atlanta United FC have had 17 attempts to 7 and it is still 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Inter Miami · On: Telasco Segovia · Off: Matías Galarza
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Inter Miami · On: Facundo Mura · Off: Germán Berterame
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Atlanta United FC · On: Cooper Sanchez · Off: Giuliano Galoppo
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atlanta United FC · On: Fafà Picault · Off: Miguel Almirón
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Atlanta United FC · On: Matthew Edwards · Off: Elías Báez
89′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' Atlanta United FC 1–3 Inter Miami
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Gonzalo Lujan · Inter Miami
90′1–3 at the end. Our 46% on Inter Miami comes in. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′Fafà Picault scores for Atlanta United FC on 89′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
94′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Maximiliano Falcon · Inter Miami
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Lionel Messi · Inter Miami
FTFULL TIME Atlanta United FC 1–3 Inter Miami
FTAtlanta United FC 1–3 Inter Miami · Inter Miami win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Inter Miami are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlanta United FC 32%, draw 22%, Inter Miami 46%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 70%.

The AI’s read on Atlanta United FC v Inter MiamiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Atlanta United FC win32%

Draw22%

Inter Miami win46%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueAtlanta Stadium

RefereeAllen Chapman

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC

4-3-3

Inter Miami

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlanta United FC

Inter Miami

3Days since last match3

Last match: 15 Oct · Major League Soccer

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Inter Miami	29	+20	52
14	Atlanta United FC	29	−12	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC

4-3-3

1 L. Hoyos

55 T. Jacob

27 P. Díaz

6 J. Alonso

3 E. Báez

8 T. Muyumba

14 M. Amaro

11 G. Galoppo

59 A. Miranchuk

36 B. Embolo

10 M. Almirón

Coach · G. Martino

Substitutes

7 · S. Alzate

20 · L. Brennan

47 · Matthew Edwards

35 · A. Fortune

42 · Jayden Hibbert

4 · E. Mihaj

22 · F. Picault

48 · C. Sanchez

19 · Sergio Santos

Inter Miami

4-3-3

97 D. St. Clair

2 G. Luján

5 Casemiro

16 Micael

3 Reguilón

7 R. De Paul

22 D. Ayala

80 M. Galarza

10 L. Messi

9 L. Suárez

19 G. Berterame

Coach · Kily González

Substitutes

37 · M. Falcón

17 · I. Fray

20 · S. Morales

4 · F. Mura

56 · Daniel Pinter

34 · R. Ríos Novo

11 · Riquelme Fillipi

8 · T. Segovia

88 · A. Shaw

Our number · inter miami winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 05:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market50%

Us46%

~~Market~~50%

We make Inter Miami a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlanta United FC v Inter Miami~~1.64 – 2.00

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 30 v 52~~14 v 2

~~The market · Inter Miami win~~50% · ours 46%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Inter Miami win The market, margin stripped

Published at 47%, 46% now. The market has gone from 52% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlanta United FC win	32%	28%	+4
Draw	22%	22%	0
Inter Miami win	46%	50%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	70%	73%	−3
Both teams to score	70%	72%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	88%	88%	0
Over 3.5 goals	49%	54%	−5
Atlanta United FC or draw	54%	50%	+4
Atlanta United FC clean sheet	14%	–	–
Inter Miami clean sheet	20%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.1%

0123450 3.2 4.9 5.3 3.5 1 4.0 9.1 8.5 5.6 2.8 2 3.6 7.0 6.9 4.6 2.3 3 3.8 3.8 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlanta United FC down, Inter Miami across0–5 goals a side shown (97.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,981 Major League Soccer matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.1% of games this season, across 437 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 4.10 goals a meeting; 10 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlanta United FC at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Inter Miami away: 1.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.64 goals for Atlanta United FC, 2.00 for Inter Miami. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 18 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~4.10

~~Over 2.5~~10 of 10

~~Both scored~~8 of 10

~~Last meetings~~INT 2–2 ATL · INT 4–0 ATL · ATL 1–2 INT · INT 2–3 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 9 Sept

ATLANTA UNITED FC

LDWDLW2–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–0

INTER MIAMI

DDDLWW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 2–0

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	29	+41	66
2	Inter Miami	29	+20	52
3	New England Revolution	29	+7	49
4	Chicago Fire	29	+9	48
5	Charlotte	29	+8	46
6	Philadelphia Union	29	+13	45
7	Orlando City SC	29	−15	38
8	New York Red Bulls	29	−15	36
9	FC Cincinnati	28	−8	36
10	New York City FC	29	+2	33
11	Toronto FC	29	−11	33
12	DC United	28	−11	33
13	Columbus Crew	29	−3	32
14	Atlanta United FC	29	−12	30
15	CF Montreal	29	−24	24