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Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati

Atlanta United FC

1–3Full time

FC Cincinnati

Major League Soccer · SUN 11 OCT · Atlanta Stadium

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 03:00

Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati ATLANTA UNITED FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlanta United FC win~~42%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.661

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.651

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlanta United FC win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atlanta United FC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
1′KICK-OFF Atlanta United FC v FC Cincinnati
2′Much as we predicted: Atlanta United FC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
3′Much as we predicted: Atlanta United FC was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–23–35
3′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Teenage Hadebe · FC Cincinnati
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Tomás Jacob · Atlanta United FC
45′HALF-TIME Atlanta United FC 0–0 FC Cincinnati
45′SECOND HALF Atlanta United FC 0–0 FC Cincinnati
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Atlanta United FC 0–1 FC Cincinnati
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Atlanta United FC 0–1 FC Cincinnati · Kevin Denkey
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Atlanta United FC · On: Aleksey Miranchuk · Off: Ajani Fortune Corrected
60′SUBSTITUTION · 60' FC Cincinnati · On: Ender Jesús Echenique Peña · Off: David Douděra Corrected
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Atlanta United FC 1–1 FC Cincinnati · Kevin Denkey
69′⚽ GOAL · 69' Atlanta United FC 1–1 FC Cincinnati · Miguel Almirón
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Cincinnati · On: Bryan Ramirez · Off: Tyrell Malacia Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Cincinnati · On: Julian Malatini · Off: Miles Robinson Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Cincinnati · On: Gerardo Valenzuela · Off: Samuel Mawuena Gidi Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Cincinnati · On: Tah Anunga · Off: Obinna Nwobodo Corrected
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Atlanta United FC 1–2 FC Cincinnati · Miguel Almirón
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Atlanta United FC 1–2 FC Cincinnati · Tom Barlow
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atlanta United FC · On: Fafà Picault · Off: Giuliano Galoppo Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Atlanta United FC · On: Cooper Sanchez · Off: Tristan Muyumba Corrected
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Julian Malatini · FC Cincinnati
93′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Atlanta United FC · On: Sergi Santos · Off: Elías Báez Corrected
94′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Mauricio Amaro · Atlanta United FC
95′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Mauricio Amaro · Atlanta United FC
96′⚽ GOAL · 96' Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati · Tom Barlow
97′⚽ GOAL · 97' Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati · Kevin Denkey
FTFULL TIME Atlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati
FTAtlanta United FC 1–3 FC Cincinnati · Atlanta United FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Atlanta United FC win42%

Draw24%

FC Cincinnati win34%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SUN 11 OCT · 00:30

Venue · Atlanta Stadium

Referee · Fotis Bazakos

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC

4-3-3

1 L. Hoyos

55 T. Jacob

4 E. Mihaj

6 J. Alonso

3 E. Baez

11 Giuliano Galoppo

14 M. Amaro

8 T. Muyumba

10 M. Almiron

36 B. Embolo

35 A. Fortune

Coach · Gerardo Martino

Substitutes

42 · J. Hibbert

27 · P. Diaz

47 · M. Edwards

59 · A. Miranchuk

16 · A. Gill

20 · L. Brennan

48 · C. Sanchez

22 · F. Picault

19 · Sergio Santos

FC Cincinnati

3-5-2

13 E. Louro

24 K. Smith

12 M. Robinson

15 T. Hadebe

23 D. Doudera

11 S. Gidi

20 P. Bucha

5 O. Nwobodo

3 T. Malacia

16 T. Barlow

9 K. Denkey

Coach · Pat Noonan

Substitutes

18 · R. Celentano

4 · N. Hagglund

2 · A. Powell

6 · J. Malatini

27 · T. Anunga

22 · G. Valenzuela

66 · E. Echenique

29 · B. J. Ramirez Leon

17 · K. Mboma

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC

4-3-3

1 L. Hoyos

55 T. Jacob

4 E. Mihaj

6 J. Alonso

3 E. Baez

11 Giuliano Galoppo

14 M. Amaro

8 T. Muyumba

10 M. Almiron

36 B. Embolo

35 A. Fortune

Coach · Gerardo Martino

Substitutes

42 · J. Hibbert

27 · P. Diaz

47 · M. Edwards

59 · A. Miranchuk

16 · A. Gill

20 · L. Brennan

48 · C. Sanchez

22 · F. Picault

19 · Sergio Santos

FC Cincinnati

3-5-2

13 E. Louro

24 K. Smith

12 M. Robinson

15 T. Hadebe

23 D. Doudera

11 S. Gidi

20 P. Bucha

5 O. Nwobodo

3 T. Malacia

16 T. Barlow

9 K. Denkey

Coach · Pat Noonan

Substitutes

18 · R. Celentano

4 · N. Hagglund

2 · A. Powell

6 · J. Malatini

27 · T. Anunga

22 · G. Valenzuela

66 · E. Echenique

29 · B. J. Ramirez Leon

17 · K. Mboma

Our number · atlanta united fc winPublished 11 Oct 00:31

42% The market41%

Us42%

~~Market~~41%

We make Atlanta United FC a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.8–1.6.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atlanta united fc win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 41% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlanta United FC win	42%	41%	+1
Draw	24%	24%	0
FC Cincinnati win	34%	35%	0
Over 2.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Both teams to score	66%	69%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	85%	86%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	42%	48%	−6
Atlanta United FC or draw	66%	65%	0
Atlanta United FC clean sheet	21%	–	–
FC Cincinnati clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.2 5.2 4.5 2.4 1 5.9 10.4 7.7 4.1 2 5.5 8.6 6.7 3.5 3 3.2 5.0 3.9 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlanta United FC down, FC Cincinnati across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,949 Major League Soccer matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.0% of games this season, across 405 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlanta United FC at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Cincinnati away: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.75 goals for Atlanta United FC, 1.57 for FC Cincinnati. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 00:00. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 12

~~Both scored~~8 of 12

~~Last meetings~~FCC 2–0 ATL · ATL 4–2 FCC · FCC 2–2 ATL · FCC 1–0 ATL

Form · last six in Major League Soccer

ATLANTA UNITED FC

LDLDWD0–2 · 2–2 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2

FC CINCINNATI

DLLDDL1–1 · 0–4 · 0–5 · 3–3 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	27	+34	60
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	27	+31	50
3	St. Louis City	27	+12	47
4	FC Dallas	27	+8	47
5	Inter Miami	27	+14	46
6	New England Revolution	27	+9	46
7	Chicago Fire	27	+10	45
8	San Jose Earthquakes	27	+10	45
9	Houston Dynamo	27	+2	44
10	Charlotte	27	+9	43
11	Los Angeles FC	28	+13	41
12	Philadelphia Union	27	+10	39
13	Seattle Sounders	27	0	38
14	Colorado Rapids	27	0	36
15	Los Angeles Galaxy	28	−7	36
16	Orlando City SC	27	−16	34
17	New York City FC	27	+5	33
18	FC Cincinnati	26	−9	33
19	New York Red Bulls	27	−17	33
20	San Diego	27	0	32
21	Portland Timbers	27	−3	32
22	Real Salt Lake	27	−4	32
23	Austin	27	−12	31
24	DC United	26	−8	30
25	Columbus Crew	27	−4	29
26	Minnesota United FC	27	−9	29
27	Toronto FC	27	−12	29
28	Atlanta United FC	27	−13	27
29	CF Montreal	27	−20	24
30	Sporting Kansas City	27	−33	21