Atlanta United FC v Chicago Fire prediction · Major League Soccer

Full timeGraded 25 Oct 02:01

Atlanta United FC 2–3 Chicago Fire ATLANTA UNITED FC WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atlanta United FC win~~40%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.638

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.545

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atlanta United FC win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atlanta United FC was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–25–35
1′KICK-OFF Atlanta United FC v Chicago Fire
4′We published Atlanta United FC at 40%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–0 · 65–18–17
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Atlanta United FC 1–0 Chicago Fire
4′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 4' Atlanta United FC win: 40% at kick-off, 65% now
5′4′: Tomás Jacob on the scoresheet for Atlanta United FC, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 65–19–17
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Atlanta United FC 1–1 Chicago Fire
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Atlanta United FC win: 40% at kick-off, 36% now
31′Chicago Fire level it on 30′ through Anton Saletros. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–31–33
40′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Djé D'Avilla · Chicago Fire
45′HALF-TIME Atlanta United FC 1–1 Chicago Fire
45′SECOND HALF Atlanta United FC 1–1 Chicago Fire
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Chicago Fire · On: Anzor Mekvabishvili · Off: Djé D'Avilla
47′Goals are coming at about the 3.1 we expected. 1–1 · 33–37–30
48′45′: Breel Embolo on the scoresheet for Atlanta United FC. 1–1 · 32–38–30
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Atlanta United FC win 34%)
51′We said Atlanta United FC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–22–68
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Atlanta United FC 1–2 Chicago Fire
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Atlanta United FC win: 40% at kick-off, 9% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Chicago Fire win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 40%)
52′Anzor Mekvabishvili scores for Chicago Fire on 51′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 9–22–69
60′We said Atlanta United FC at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–6–93
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Atlanta United FC 1–3 Chicago Fire
61′4 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–5–94
65′60′: Philip Zinckernagel on the scoresheet for Chicago Fire, making it 1–3. 1–3 · 1–4–95
65′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Lucas Hoyos · Atlanta United FC
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Atlanta United FC · On: Fafà Picault · Off: Ajani Fortune
65′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Atlanta United FC · On: Tristan Muyumba · Off: Aleksey Miranchuk
67′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 5–20–76
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Atlanta United FC 2–3 Chicago Fire
76′Atlanta United FC pull one back on 67′ through Breel Embolo. 2–3. 2–3 · 2–16–82
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chicago Fire · On: Johan Arath Gomez · Off: Robert Lewandowski
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chicago Fire · On: Puso Dithejane · Off: Noah Allen
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Chicago Fire · On: Andrew Gutman · Off: Philip Zinckernagel
76′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Paulo Díaz · Atlanta United FC
83′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Anzor Mekvabishvili · Chicago Fire
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Atlanta United FC · On: Matthew Edwards · Off: Paulo Díaz
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Atlanta United FC win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
86′🟨 YELLOW · 81' Mbekezeli Mbokazi · Chicago Fire
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Johan Arath Gomez · Chicago Fire
86′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Junior Alonso · Atlanta United FC
89′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Atlanta United FC · On: Luke Brennan · Off: Giuliano Galoppo
90′Full time, 2–3. We called Atlanta United FC at 40% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 2–3 · 0–0–100
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Chicago Fire · On: Leonardo Barroso · Off: Jonathan Bamba
FTFULL TIME Atlanta United FC 2–3 Chicago Fire
FTAtlanta United FC 2–3 Chicago Fire · Atlanta United FC win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Atlanta United FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Atlanta United FC 40%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 35%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Atlanta United FC v Chicago FireBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Atlanta United FC win40%

Draw25%

Chicago Fire win35%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 00:30

RoundMatchday 31

VenueAtlanta Stadium

RefereeVictor Rivas

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC

4-3-3

Chicago Fire

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Atlanta United FC

Chicago Fire

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Major League Soccer

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Atlanta United FC

4-3-3

1 L. Hoyos

55 T. Jacob

27 P. Díaz

6 J. Alonso

3 E. Báez

35 A. Fortune

14 M. Amaro

11 G. Galoppo

59 A. Miranchuk

36 B. Embolo

10 M. Almirón

Coach · G. Martino

Substitutes

8 · T. Muyumba

7 · S. Alzate

20 · L. Brennan

47 · Matthew Edwards

42 · Jayden Hibbert

4 · E. Mihaj

22 · F. Picault

48 · C. Sanchez

19 · Sergio Santos

Chicago Fire

4-3-3

1 C. Brady

24 J. Dean

21 A. Hanche-Olsen

4 M. Mbokazi

32 N. Allen

6 A. Salétros

42 T. D'Avilla

7 M. Haile-Selassie

11 P. Zinckernagel

9 R. Lewandowski

19 J. Bamba

Coach · G. Berhalter

Substitutes

29 · D. Poręba

22 · M. Pineda

35 · S. Oregel

23 · A. Mekvabishvili

18 · J. Gómez

12 · P. Dithejane

44 · J. Cohen

15 · A. Gutman

2 · Leonardo Barroso

Our number · atlanta united fc winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market35%

Us40%

~~Market~~35%

We make Atlanta United FC a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Atlanta United FC v Chicago Fire~~1.59 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 48~~14 v 4

~~The market · Atlanta United FC win~~35% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Atlanta United FC win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atlanta United FC win	40%	35%	+5
Draw	25%	25%	0
Chicago Fire win	35%	40%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	59%	66%	−7
Both teams to score	62%	67%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	84%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	46%	−9
Atlanta United FC or draw	65%	60%	+5
Atlanta United FC clean sheet	23%	–	–
Chicago Fire clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 5.3 6.2 5.1 2.6 1 6.7 11.4 8.0 4.0 2 5.8 8.5 6.3 3.2 3 3.1 4.5 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atlanta United FC down, Chicago Fire across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 2,995 Major League Soccer matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Major League Soccer matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 451 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atlanta United FC at home: 1.33 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chicago Fire away: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Atlanta United FC, 1.50 for Chicago Fire. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~CHI 1–0 ATL · ATL 2–2 CHI · CHI 2–1 ATL · CHI 0–0 ATL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Major League Soccer this season · since 12 Sept

ATLANTA UNITED FC

DWDLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 3–0 · 1–3

CHICAGO FIRE

LWWWLL0–3 · 1–0 · 3–1 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

The table

2026 · Eastern Conference

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Nashville SC	30	+41	67
2	Inter Miami	30	+22	55
3	New England Revolution	30	+8	52
4	Chicago Fire	30	+8	48
5	Charlotte	30	+8	47
6	Philadelphia Union	30	+13	46
7	Orlando City SC	30	−12	41
8	FC Cincinnati	30	−9	39
9	New York Red Bulls	30	−17	36
10	Toronto FC	30	−9	36
11	Columbus Crew	30	−1	35
12	New York City FC	30	+2	34
13	DC United	30	−15	33
14	Atlanta United FC	30	−14	30
15	CF Montreal	30	−24	25