Uruguay Montevideo v Sportivo Huracan prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Uruguay MontevideoDrawSportivo Huracan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Uruguay Montevideo 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Uruguay Montevideo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uruguay Montevideo 39%, draw 29%, Sportivo Huracan 33%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Uruguay Montevideo v Sportivo HuracanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Uruguay Montevideo win39%

Draw29%

Sportivo Huracan win33%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 25

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uruguay Montevideo

Sportivo Huracan

7Days since last match15

Last match: 24 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	24	−13	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · uruguay montevideo winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make Uruguay Montevideo a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uruguay Montevideo v Sportivo Huracan~~1.22 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 21 v 27~~14 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uruguay Montevideo win	39%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Sportivo Huracan win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	41%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Uruguay Montevideo or draw	67%	–	–
Uruguay Montevideo clean sheet	34%	–	–
Sportivo Huracan clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.4%

0123450 10.3 10.6 5.9 2.2 1 11.8 13.4 7.2 2.6 2 7.3 8.0 4.4 3 3.0 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uruguay Montevideo down, Sportivo Huracan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,209 Segunda División matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.3% of games this season, across 206 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2026 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uruguay Montevideo at home: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Huracan away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Uruguay Montevideo, 1.10 for Sportivo Huracan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SPO 1–3 URU · URU 1–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO

LLLLDW0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 2–1

SPORTIVO HURACAN

LDWLDL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–3

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	23	+9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	24	+6	37
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
4	Colón	23	+2	36
5	CA River Plate	24	+5	33
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	24	−9	25
14	Uruguay Montevideo	24	−13	21