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Uruguay Montevideo v Colón

Uruguay Montevideo
1–3Full time
Colón

Segunda División · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02
Uruguay Montevideo 1–3 Colón COLÓN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Colón win40%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.548
The market’s Brier score0.480

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Colón win at 40%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Colón 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 31–30–40
  3. 6′A goal for Colón on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–20–70
  4. 22′A goal for Colón on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 9–20–71
  5. 30′25′ and it is 1–1: Uruguay Montevideo have scored. 1–1 · 28–38–35
  6. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  7. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
  8. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  9. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
  10. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  11. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
  12. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
  13. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  14. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  15. 44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
  16. 45′25′ and it is 1–1: Uruguay Montevideo have scored. 1–1 · 25–45–31
  17. 45′Little has changed for our model: Colón 40% before kick-off, 31% now. 1–1 · 25–45–31
  18. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 35% now
  19. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Colón win: 40% at kick-off, 71% now
  20. 45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Colón win 31%)
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Uruguay Montevideo 1–1 Colón
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Uruguay Montevideo 1–1 Colón
  23. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Colón win 31%)
  24. 48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Colón win 31%)
  25. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Colón win 31%)
  26. 50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Colón win 31%)
  27. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Colón win 31%)
  28. 54′⚽ GOAL · 54' Uruguay Montevideo 1–2 Colón
  29. 80′⚽ GOAL · 6' Uruguay Montevideo 1–2 Colón
  30. 80′⚽ GOAL · 25' Uruguay Montevideo 1–2 Colón
  31. 80′⚽ GOAL · 54' Uruguay Montevideo 1–2 Colón
  32. 81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Uruguay Montevideo 1–3 Colón
  33. 83′⚽ GOAL · 6' Uruguay Montevideo 1–3 Colón
  34. 83′⚽ GOAL · 25' Uruguay Montevideo 1–3 Colón
  35. 83′⚽ GOAL · 54' Uruguay Montevideo 1–3 Colón
  36. 83′⚽ GOAL · 81' Uruguay Montevideo 1–3 Colón
  37. FTFULL TIME Uruguay Montevideo 1–3 Colón
  38. FTUruguay Montevideo 1–3 Colón · Colón win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Uruguay Montevideo win31%
Draw30%
Colón win40%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · colón winPublished 10 Oct 17:01
40% The market44%
Us40%
Market44%

We make Colón a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published
35%40%45% 9 OCT 06:2110 OCT 04:00
Our probability · colón win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Uruguay Montevideo win31%26%+4
Draw30%30%0
Colón win40%44%−4
Over 2.5 goals36%39%−3
Both teams to score43%45%−2
Over 1.5 goals63%64%0
Over 3.5 goals17%20%−4
Uruguay Montevideo or draw60%56%+4
Uruguay Montevideo clean sheet32%––
Colón clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%
0123450 12.1 13.4 7.9 3.1 1 11.3 13.5 7.7 3.0 2 5.7 6.5 3.8 3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Uruguay Montevideo down, Colón across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024
Goals a meeting1.80
Over 2.51 of 5
Both scored1 of 5
Last meetingsCOL 1–0 URU · URU 0–1 COL · COL 5–1 URU · URU 0–1 COL

Form · last six in Segunda División

URUGUAY MONTEVIDEO

DLDLLL0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–2

COLÓN

WWLDLD1–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–3 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Oriental28+945
2Plaza Colonia27+1244
3Atenas27+644
4Fenix28+1043
5Rentistas27+442
6Colón27039
7Cerrito27+338
8Sportivo Huracan27−336
9CA River Plate27−234
10La Luz27−634
11Miramar27−730
12Paysandu27−529
13Tacuarembo27−1127
14Uruguay Montevideo27−1026

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.