Tacuarembo v La Luz prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 00:00

Tacuarembo 0–1 La Luz TACUAREMBO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Tacuarembo win~~38%

~~The market said~~29%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.715

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Tacuarembo win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Tacuarembo 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–31–31
2′KICK-OFF Tacuarembo v La Luz
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Tacuarembo win 30%)
45′HALF-TIME Tacuarembo 0–0 La Luz
45′SECOND HALF Tacuarembo 0–0 La Luz
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Tacuarembo win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
54′We said Tacuarembo at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 26–51–22
60′We said Tacuarembo at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
68′We said Tacuarembo at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Tacuarembo win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
77′We said Tacuarembo at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 0–0 · 13–75–11
80′La Luz score on 79′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–10–89
80′⚽ GOAL · 79' Tacuarembo 0–1 La Luz
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Tacuarembo win: 38% at kick-off, 1% now
80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' La Luz win is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Draw 10%)
81′We said Tacuarembo at 38%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
90′0–1 at the end. Our 38% on Tacuarembo misses, and the record keeps it. 0–1 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Tacuarembo 0–1 La Luz
FTTacuarembo 0–1 La Luz · Tacuarembo win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Tacuarembo are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Tacuarembo 38%, draw 30%, La Luz 31%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Tacuarembo v La LuzBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Tacuarembo win38%

Draw30%

La Luz win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 21:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 23

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Tacuarembo

La Luz

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 11 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	La Luz	22	−5	28
13	Tacuarembo	22	−8	24

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · tacuarembo winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 04:02 · locked at kick-off

38% The market29%

Us38%

~~Market~~29%

We make Tacuarembo a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Tacuarembo v La Luz~~1.13 – 0.98

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 4 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 24 v 28~~13 v 10

~~The market · Tacuarembo win~~29% · ours 38%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Tacuarembo win The market, margin stripped

Published at 39%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Tacuarembo win	38%	29%	+9
Draw	30%	31%	−1
La Luz win	31%	40%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	35%	39%	−4
Both teams to score	42%	46%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	63%	64%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	20%	−4
Tacuarembo or draw	69%	60%	+9
Tacuarembo clean sheet	38%	–	–
La Luz clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.6 11.6 5.9 1 13.3 13.7 6.5 2.2 2 7.7 7.5 3.7 3 2.9 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Tacuarembo down, La Luz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,201 Segunda División matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.4% of games this season, across 198 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 1.88 goals a meeting; 1 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Tacuarembo at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). La Luz away: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Tacuarembo, 0.98 for La Luz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~1.88

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 8

~~Both scored~~4 of 8

~~Last meetings~~LAL 2–0 TAC · TAC 1–1 LAL · TAC 1–1 LAL · LAL 1–2 TAC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 4 Sept

TACUAREMBO

LDDDLL0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–2

LA LUZ

LWLWWD1–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 1–1

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	22	+12	41
2	Colón	23	+2	36
3	CA River Plate	22	+7	33
4	Plaza Colonia	22	+5	33
5	Rentistas	22	+2	33
6	Oriental	22	+5	32
7	Cerrito	22	+4	32
8	Fenix	22	+3	30
9	Paysandu	22	−1	28
10	La Luz	22	−5	28
11	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
12	Miramar	22	−3	26
13	Tacuarembo	22	−8	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	22	−14	17