Sportivo Huracan v Oriental prediction · Segunda División

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sportivo HuracanDrawOriental

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Oriental 37%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Oriental just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Huracan 35%, draw 28%, Oriental 37%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Sportivo Huracan v OrientalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

Sportivo Huracan win35%

Draw28%

Oriental win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:00

Round2nd phase · matchday 24

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportivo Huracan

Oriental

9Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

Last match: 19 Oct · the Uruguayan Segunda División

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · oriental winFirst published 19 Oct 09:31 · locked at kick-off

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Oriental a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportivo Huracan v Oriental~~1.17 – 1.21

~~Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 27 v 33~~12 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportivo Huracan win	35%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Oriental win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	42%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	69%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Sportivo Huracan or draw	63%	–	–
Sportivo Huracan clean sheet	30%	–	–
Oriental clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 9.6 11.0 6.8 2.8 1 10.6 13.3 7.9 3.2 2 6.3 7.6 4.6 3 2.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Huracan down, Oriental across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,207 Segunda División matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.2% of games this season, across 204 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportivo Huracan at home: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Oriental away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Sportivo Huracan, 1.21 for Oriental. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ORI 1–0 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Segunda División this season · since 12 Sept

SPORTIVO HURACAN

LDWLDL1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–3

ORIENTAL

LWWDLD1–3 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026 · 2nd Phase

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Atenas	23	+9	41
2	Plaza Colonia	23	+6	36
3	Rentistas	23	+5	36
4	Colón	23	+2	36
5	CA River Plate	23	+6	33
6	Oriental	23	+5	33
7	Cerrito	23	+3	32
8	Paysandu	23	0	31
9	La Luz	23	−4	31
10	Fenix	23	+2	30
11	Miramar	23	−2	29
12	Sportivo Huracan	23	−9	27
13	Tacuarembo	23	−9	24
14	Uruguay Montevideo	23	−14	18