Sportivo Huracan v Fenix prediction · Segunda División

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 01:30

Sportivo Huracan 0–0 Fenix FENIX WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fenix win~~36%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.780

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.787

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Fenix win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sportivo Huracan was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
1′KICK-OFF Sportivo Huracan v Fenix
18′Much as we predicted: Sportivo Huracan was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 34% now. 0–0 · 34–31–34
29′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Sportivo Huracan
39′Sportivo Huracan find the net on 29′. 0–0. 0–0 · 30–39–31
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sportivo Huracan win 30%)
42′Sportivo Huracan find the net on 29′. 0–0. 0–0 · 30–40–30
45′HALF-TIME Sportivo Huracan 0–0 Fenix
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Sportivo Huracan win 30%)
46′SECOND HALF Sportivo Huracan 0–0 Fenix
47′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Sportivo Huracan
53′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Sportivo Huracan
58′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Sportivo Huracan
59′PENALTY MISSED · 29' Sportivo Huracan
90′🟥 RED CARD · 92' Fenix
FTSportivo Huracan 0–0 Fenix · Fenix win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sportivo Huracan win36%

Draw28%

Fenix win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 23:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sportivo Huracan

Fenix

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Fenix	28	+10	43
9	Sportivo Huracan	27	−3	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fenix winPublished 11 Oct 23:01

36% The market47%

Us36%

~~Market~~47%

We make Fenix a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fenix win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportivo Huracan win	36%	25%	+11
Draw	28%	29%	−1
Fenix win	36%	47%	−10
Over 2.5 goals	44%	43%	+1
Both teams to score	49%	48%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	70%	68%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	23%	23%	−1
Sportivo Huracan or draw	64%	53%	+10
Sportivo Huracan clean sheet	30%	–	–
Fenix clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 9.2 10.6 6.5 2.7 1 10.5 13.1 7.8 3.2 2 6.5 7.8 4.7 3 2.6 3.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Huracan down, Fenix across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,197 Segunda División matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Segunda División matches have gone over 2.5 in 39.7% of games this season, across 194 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportivo Huracan at home: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fenix away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Sportivo Huracan, 1.22 for Fenix. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~FEN 2–0 SPO · SPO 2–1 FEN

Form · last six in Segunda División

SPORTIVO HURACAN

WWLDWL2–1 · 3–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

FENIX

DLWDLW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Oriental	29	+7	45
2	Plaza Colonia	27	+12	44
3	Atenas	27	+6	44
4	Fenix	28	+10	43
5	Rentistas	28	+3	42
6	Colón	28	+2	42
7	Cerrito	28	+4	41
8	CA River Plate	28	0	37
9	Sportivo Huracan	27	−3	36
10	La Luz	27	−6	34
11	Paysandu	28	−4	32
12	Miramar	27	−7	30
13	Tacuarembo	28	−12	27
14	Uruguay Montevideo	28	−12	26